Game Overview ::
By Hilow >>
- RB Rhamondre Stevenson returned to a limited session Wednesday after missing the previous three games with a toe injury.
- QB Joe Burrow has taken first-team reps at practice on consecutive days to start Week 12 prep – it certainly seems like a possibility he returns earlier than his Thanksgiving target date, in time to face the Patriots in what is a must-win game for the Bengals.
- WR Ja’Marr Chase was suspended for one game for spitting at Steelers CB Jalen Ramsey. He has appealed the suspension and was denied, meaning he will miss Week 12 against the Patriots.
- The player pricing from this game seems to indicate that DraftKings is finally adjusting pricing for the matchup after pricing was loose for the first two-plus months in 2025 (read: the Patriots are all overpriced for their production in a relatively conservative offense).
- This is an elite spot on paper for the New England backfield, and they have given one back 72% or more of the offensive snaps in six consecutive games.
JM’S JOURNAL ::
Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.
How new england Will Try To Win ::
Eight-game win streaks are difficult to come by in the NFL, so let’s take a quick moment and appreciate what the Patriots have been able to accomplish since Week 3. Sure, they faced the easiest strength of schedule during that span, but they also snuck in wins over the Buccaneers and Bills while scoring 23 points or more each time out, including 28 points or more on four occasions. The truth likely resides somewhere in the middle (but biased towards the positive) with this team, in that they probably aren’t sitting at 9-2 through 11 weeks at great frequency if we played this season out 100 times, but they are most certainly making their mark on the season at greater frequency than their preseason win-loss line dictated. The team currently ranks fifth in pass rate over expectation (PROE) but that metric alone is a bit misleading – they rank just 27th in pass attempts per game while quarterback Drake Maye has attempted a modest 30 or more passes in only five of 11 games. This team wants to control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball while mixing in deep passing behind their run and short passing games on offense, and forcing teams to march the field against them on defense.
The Patriots have utilized a true lead-back-and-change-of-pace-back two-back system for most of the season, particularly since Antonio Gibson’s season-ending injury in Week 5. Stevenson was the lead back from Week 6 to Week 9 before suffering his own injury, after which rookie TreVeyon Henderson stepped into a borderline workhorse role. That, then, begs the question – how involved will Stevenson be if he makes it back this week? Last week, it was “Stevenson remains the lead back when healthy,” and then Henderson went for more than 30 DK points for the second consecutive game. There is a lot of uncertainty here, but I expect Henderson to maintain a lead-back role that has been good for at least 72% of the offensive snaps in each of the team’s previous six contests. The Bengals have allowed the fourth-most yards before contact per attempt, the third-most yards per carry (5.2), and the most fantasy points per game (35.6) to opposing backfields, making this a solid spot on paper for Henderson (with the obvious caveat that there is a level of uncertainty here).
As we started to get into above, Maye has played some inspiring football, but this offense is no more pass-leaning than the Jets (those two teams rank back-to-back in total pass rate). So, while their PROE remains towards the top of the league, Maye has yet to throw for more than 287 yards or account for more than three touchdowns in a game this season. Sure, he adds a bit of floor-smoothing production with his legs, but we still need a bonus to be paired with three or more scores, or four or more scores to truly achieve ceiling outcome at the position. While we’re here, the fact that he is now the highest-priced quarterback on DraftKings is lol-worthy considering he has not hit a 4x salary multipler on his $6,900 salary once this season (he sniffed it twice in 11 games). Those tendencies have obviously affected their pass-catching corps, with all of Stefon Diggs, Hunter Henry, Kayshon Boutte, Mack Hollins, and DeMario Douglas each accounting for exactly one game of 4x production on their respective Week 12 salaries.
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