GAME Overview ::
BY HILOW >>
- Panthers placed WR Jalen Coker (quad) on injured reserve and signed Hunter Renfrow, the latter who spent the preseason with the team before being released at roster cuts.
- Liam Coen gets his first crack at head-coach duties after leading the Buccaneers’ offense to a blowup year in 2024.
- Panthers traded WR Adam Thielen to the Vikings.
- Ejiro Evero’s zone-heavy defense allowed the most fantasy points per dropback from zone in 2024 (0.48).
- This game carries an extremely wide range of potential outcomes regarding the likeliest game flow, making it a solid game to stack up or stay away from.
HOW CAROLINA WILL TRY TO WIN ::
First off, I want to dispel a narrative that has been going around the industry a lot this offseason – whether or not Bryce Young “peppers his slot receiver.” I kept seeing this thrown around with zero regard for accuracy and finally pushed back a bit on the X machine, but I’ll save the good stuff for you all here (this is also part of the reason I never bought into the Jalen Coker hype train). Young targeted the slot on 138 pass attempts in 2024 (15th), with a 72.5% completion rate (18th), 92.5 QBR (26th), 9.0-yard aDOT, and 0.45 fantasy points per dropback (23rd), of quarterbacks with nine or more appearances. Yes, he holds a career 36.1% slot target rate (third highest over the previous three seasons), but his pass catchers during his career have consisted of Adam Thielen (primary slot), Xavier Legette, DJ Chark, Jonathan Mingo, Hayden Hurst, Ja’Tavion Sanders, and Tommy Tremble. Where else was the ball going to go than a veteran slot man that can get open? In other words, a bit of context is required here to diagnose the raw stats (slot target rates are already a flimsy stat to begin with, in my opinion – just lacking so much context).
The team is now left with first-round rookie Tetairoa McMillan, underperforming past first-rounder Xavier Legette, Renfrow, Tremble, and Sanders … where would we expect the targets to flow now? Yea, probably to McMillan and not “whatever body is occupying the slot.” Jaguars first time defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile is reportedly going to install a “multiple” defense, one which has no true base front (mixes 3-4 and 4-3) and varying coverage alignments. He is a former linebackers coach and run-game coordinator with the Packers, so I’m interested to see how he designs the back end. I honestly don’t have a good read on this situation since he has such little coaching experience to this point in his career. View this is a plus matchup based on defensive personnel, in a defense I expect to be better against the run than the pass.
Rico Dowdle appears primed for a significant role on this offense if we are to believe preseason usage. Dowdle operated as the clear third-down back in all drives with the starters this preseason, which is likeliest to settle into a “change-of-pace-plus-third-down” role. That syphons a bit of expected volume away from Chuba Hubbard, who operated in a true workhorse role from Week 5 on last season. DaVon Hamilton is a below-average nose tackle, but the presence of Arik Armstead on the interior defensive line is a big boost to a defense that should be more malleable than in previous years. I would expect Hubbard to settle into a 60-65% snap rate and opportunity share, with Dowdle soaking up much of the remainder.
As was mentioned above, the target competition for McMillan is sparse-to-none after the team moved Thielen and Coker landed on injured reserve. He should have every opportunity to see significant volume right away and showed that he can return solid upside on that volume this preseason. That shouldn’t come as a surprise after the team sunk the No. 8 overall pick into him in this year’s draft. The most interesting fallout from the recent wide receiver transactions from this team was the signing of Renfrow, which indicated to me that the team does not want Legette running a bunch of routes from the slot and prefers to play him on the perimeter. That means he is likely going to see the most press-man coverage, as I expect McMillan to be deployed more as a ‘Z’ than an ‘X,’ getting him off the line of scrimmage and in motion. That leaves a lot to be desired for Legette and leaves me with an “I’ll believe it when I see it” mentality. I also wonder when Coker was truly injured and why the Panthers felt they needed to trade Thielen or release Renfrow to begin with. Okay, sidebar complete.
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