XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
On Sunday night, the Packers will travel to Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers in a 45.5 total game with Green Bay favored by 3. The Steelers are, somewhat shockingly to yours truly, on top of their division at 4-2 and they’ve been competitive in just about every game they’ve played in, with Aaron Rodgers still looking capable at quarterback in his age-41 season. The Packers, meanwhile, are also on top of their division at 4-1-1 (with the exceedingly rare tie). I didn’t think this would be the case, but this is a matchup of two division leaders.
PITTSBURGH
On the Steelers side of things, Jaylen Warren has looked good in his return from injury, running for 127 yards on just 16 carries last week. Warren has been so good that rookie Kaleb Johnson saw 0 touches last week despite being active, while RB2 Kenneth Gainwell saw just 5 touches, tied for his fewest of the season. Warren is even more than doubling Gainwell’s red zone touches in games in which they’re both active, which is one worry I had for him coming into the season, as he’s a bit undersized for an RB1, and I thought they might try to protect him from those bruising goal line carries. He’s not a bell cow – he’s only played over 65% of the snaps once on the season – but the workload is solid and includes good passing game usage with 19 targets in five games. He’s not my favorite play on the slate, but I like him more than I thought I would when I first started looking into this game. I was expecting to be mostly off of him, but instead I think he’s a fine, acceptable, albeit not super exciting play. Gainwell is cheap enough at $3k to be a very viable RB2 play as he’s seen games with target counts of 4, 5, and 6 while sharing the field with Warren – for limited yardage, but in DK’s PPR format, that’s enough for him to possibly get there even without finding the end zone. The real downside here is a matchup against a Green Bay defense that has only allowed one opposing team to reach 100 rushing yards (and it took a 40-40 OT game to do it) while holding opponents to just 3.5 yards per carry, 3rd lowest in the NFL.
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In the passing game, the Packers D has been more “good” than “elite,” and so this is where we might see the Steelers find more success (it also aligns with the Packers being favorites and possibly putting Pittsburgh into a negative game script that encourages more throwing). Calvin Austin is back practicing in full and should thus resume a full-time role opposite DK Metcalf, which pushes all other Pittsburgh wide receivers into fringe tourney territory, only no other Steelers wideout played more than 35% of the snaps in a game with both Metcalf and Austin active. Metcalf is plenty talented, but is seeing very modest target volume as this offense spreads the ball around a lot while also averaging just 29 pass attempts per game, leaving him with just 6 targets per game (one of the lowest in the league for an offense’s WR1). Combine that with his lower-than-usual 10.7-yard aDOT, and it’s tough to see a ton of upside for Metcalf at his premium price. He’s an elite player with 240 total yards after the catch – but that’s probably how he’s going to need to find ceiling in this game, and against the Packers disciplined defense, which is one of the best in the league at preventing explosive passing plays, the odds of that happening feel low. I want to invest in the Pittsburgh passing game, and I’ll have some Metcalf, but at his price, he’s a bit of a tough sell to play a ton of. Calvin Austin, in his healthy games, was averaging 5 targets per game with a much-nicer ADOT of 14.6 yards – he’s not as talented as Metcalf, but the price of $5,800 is a heck of a lot more appealing.
We’re also seeing Pittsburgh rotate three tight ends, with all of Jonnu Smith, Darnell Washington, and Pat Freiermuth seeing significant field time (and of course, Freiermuth went absolutely bonkers last game). Rodgers has targeted his tight ends heavily this year and Pittsburgh runs 12 personnel at one of the highest rates of any team, so you can even play two of their TEs together – Jonnu and Freiermuth accounted for 10 of the Steelers 23 completed passes last game, so at their cheap prices of $4.2k or less, there’s room for multiple guys to eat. They’re all viable, and I’d rank them as Jonnu, then Freiermuth, then Washington.
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