Game Overview ::
By HILOW >>
- The Packers appear to be getting healthy after struggling through numerous injuries on both sides of the ball during the first seven weeks of the season, with only CB Corey Ballentine (ankle) missing practice through Thursday.
- Jaguars LB Foye Oluokun (foot) was designated to return from injured reserve and managed two limited sessions to start the week.
- Jaguars RB Travis Etienne (hamstring) logged back-to-back limited sessions to start the week, with his status on Friday likely dictating whether or not he carries an injury designation into the weekend.
- There are legitimate paths to fantasy goodness from this game environment but one-off bets are rather thin.
How GREEN BAY Will Try To Win ::
As we’ve talked about in the past, Packers head coach Matt LaFleur is one of the most dynamic offensive play callers in the league, capable of taking what the opponent gives him and exploiting it to the maximum extent possible. We saw that on display last week against the Texans when he looked to exploit the injuries of their defense with his highest pass rate over expectation (PROE) of the season. That’s an interesting dynamic of this offense to understand as it pertains to their opponent in Week 8, a Jaguars team that has forced the third-highest PROE against this season, behind only the Lions and Ravens. Furthermore, every opponent against the Jaguars has held PROE values other than the Dolphins in Week 1. Simply understanding LaFleur’s tendencies paints a clear path to a slight uptick in pass volume from the Packers here, with the potential for an increased deep passing rate against a Jaguars team that reverted back to increased rates of man coverage with the return of All-Pro cornerback Tyson Campbell in Week 7 (40.5%).
Josh Jacobs has settled into a consistent role for the Packers, seeing 15 or more running back opportunities in all seven games but surpassing 21 opportunities just once (the first game without Jordan Love, when he saw 32 carries). The presence of Emanuel Wilson and Chris Brooks has meant the Packers can approach their backfield as we’ve grown accustomed to under LaFleur, with the lead back seeing roughly 66% of the backfield snaps and opportunities (Jacobs has seen a 65.2% snap rate and 66.5% opportunity share this season). The Jaguars rank 12th in yards allowed before contact per attempt this season at 1.79 but have been much easier to attack through the air due to their heavy man coverage rates, leading to teams simply choosing to attack them in a pass-heavy way thus far. This isn’t a daunting on-paper matchup, but it is one that is better attacked via other means.
Against man coverage and with Love under center this season, Dontayvion Wicks has seen a ridiculous 53% targets-per-route-run rate and 30.4% first-read target rate, but all of Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson, and Wicks have found success in that split, amassing 0.79 fantasy points per route run (FP/RR), 0.75 FP/RR, and 0.64 FP/RR, respectively. In other words, one of the receivers with a deeper aDOT has done the most damage against man coverage for the Packers this season. The biggest problem in that split is the fact that Wicks and Watson are effectively splitting a role in this offense at present, with Wicks reverting back to a 41% snap rate to the 53% snap rate of Watson with all four primary wide receivers healthy in Week 7. In fact, in the five games this season with all four healthy and active, Wicks has not surpassed a 51% snap rate while Watson hasn’t surpassed a 63% snap rate, with Doubs continuing to lead the team in total snaps played this season, typically in the 75-85% snap-rate range. Tucker Kraft is playing as an every-down tight end in this offense, but he hasn’t seen more than five targets in the previous three games since erupting against the Vikings in that comeback effort in Week 4.
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