Packers (

24.25) at
Browns (

16.75)

GAME OVERVIEW ::

BY HILOW >>

• These two defenses have allowed the fewest (Cleveland, 2.1) and second fewest (Green Bay, 2.4) yards per carry in the league through two weeks.
• Rookie RB Quinshon Judkins saw 13 opportunities on just 20 offensive snaps in his first professional game, telling me this team badly wants him as their lead back. The problem is that he missed the entirety of the offseason and preseason in his rookie year while dealing with legal issues, meaning it is likely to take time for that to develop.
• Packers WR Jayden Reed underwent surgery on his collarbone and foot earlier this week and will miss significant time.
• Tucker Kraft, fantasy’s TE1 through two weeks, appears to be the biggest beneficiary of the Reed injury.
• The Browns appear intent on shortening games by long, sustained drives on offense and an aggressive defense.

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HOW GREEN BAY WILL TRY TO WIN ::

The Packers have faced the third-most dropbacks through two weeks via continual positive game scripts, allowing just 0.31 fantasy points per dropback from an elevated 81.1% zone-coverage rate. They are effectively daring teams to march the field against them while playing a combined 43.1% from Cover-2 and Cover-6, mixing in an elevated rate of Cover-3 to boot (32.6%). The key here is that they have been able to generate a solid 26.3% pressure rate (fifth) on the sixth-lowest blitz rate, representing the fifth-highest pressure-to-blitz delta in the league behind only the Seahawks (in first by a mile – this defense is for real), Bears, Rams, and Cowboys (surprising). The beauty here is in that marriage, as this defense is unlikely to experience such elite early-season returns if those two pieces were not working together. 

Their offense has been able to remain balanced because of their successes on defense, with an 18^th-ranked pass rate over expectation (PROE) through two weeks. That, however, should not be mistaken for a conservative approach. Jordan Love leads the league in average intended air yards (12.9; Russell Wilson at 10.6 and Lamar Jackson at 10.5 are the next-closest passers) and has an elevated 17.0% deep-throw rate (third, behind only Jackson and Baker Mayfield). Much of that success comes from heavy play-action rates behind a borderline elite offensise line and run game (sixth-highest grade, behind teams we expect to be up there – Ravens, Eagles, Falcons, Cardinals, and Colts).

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Workhorse back Josh Jacobs jumped right back into his workhorse ways, accounting for snap rates of 88% and 78% and opportunity counts of 20 and 23 against the Lions and Commanders, respectively. For those keeping track at home, those two teams represented the winner of the division and a team that played in the Conference Championship last season. Change-of-pace option Chris Brooks played 19% of the team’s offensive snaps in each game, with most of those looks coming in clear passing situations as the preferred third-down option, while Emanuel Wilson played just seven combined offensive snaps through two games. The pure rushing matchup is a poor one on paper against a Browns defense allowing the fewest yards per carry through two games. We can write off their successes in a game against an overmatched Bengals front, but they then came out and held King Henry to just 23 yards on 11 carries, with the Ravens all but adandoning their run game in the second half in an eventual blowout win. Jacobs is a solid bet to surpass 20 opportunities in this spot, but we have to be questioning expected efficiency. Even so, he provides a profile where multiple touchdowns is well within reason.

As expected, Romeo Doubs leads a crowded wide receiver room in snap rate due to the well-rounded nature of his skill set, but that rate is actually down compared to last season after the veteran saw snap rates of 71% and 74% in their first two games. Four other wide receivers held snap rates between 23% and 48% in their first game, with enigmatic rookie Matthew Golden’s snaps ticking up in Week 2 following the departure of Reed. Reed will miss significant time after undergoing surgery on his collarbone and foot early this week, but the way this team runs is such that we shouldn’t expect one pass catcher to step into a massive bump in snap rate and route-participation rate in his absence. Instead, it appears the biggest beneficiary is Kraft, who leads all pass catchers in snap rate (91.5%) and route participation (81.8%). All of that comes with an elite (for anyone) 9.7-yard aDOT through two games. As in, this dude is not just seeing “standard tight end utilization,” he is getting free downfield and making the most with the ball in his hands (second-ranked 73 yards after the catch this season). Expect the offense to continue with a “spread the love” undertone, with Kraft the clearest bet for upside.

HOW CLEVELAND WILL TRY TO WIN ::

The Browns took a similar stance to their game-planning against the Ravens as we saw a week prior in their game against the Bengals – they wanted to shorten the game via sustained drives on offense while their defense forced teams to march the field, during which they look to generate disruption with an elite front. And that plan has mostly worked to start the season. They have successfully shortened both of their games through two weeks, trailing 14-10 against the Bengals (and, if not for a missed field goal, would have won that game) and trailing 10-3 to the Ravens at the break (if not for a blocked punt, that could have been 3-3). Things have not gone their way in the second half of either game as a missed field goal send them to 0-1, and the the Ravens just ran them off the field to send them to 0-2 in the second half of their two games. I would expect a similar approach against another far superior opponent from top to bottom in the Packers.

The Browns got Judkins in Week 2 for the first time this season after his off-the-field issues this offseason. He provided a solid spark to an offense that had struggled on the ground against the Bengals, taking 10 carries for 61 yards on just 20 offensive snaps. I would expect his snap rate to tick up in the coming games as he familiarizes himself with the offense (remember, he missed the entirety of the offseason and preseason). Jerome Ford led the team in snap rate again at 48% but handled only six carries, seeing six targets to the three of Dylan Sampson and three of Judkins. Add it all up and Judkins saw 13 opportunities on 20 offensive snaps, which is a ludicrous touch rate and also highlights what he means to this team now that they have him on the field. I see this backfield remaining a messy three-headed timeshare for the time being, with Judkins the likeliest to eventually assert dominance over the lead role. The matchup on the ground is not the same matchup we’ve attack in previous years against the Packers, as they have allowed just 1.71 yards before contact per attempt and the second fewest (2.4) yards per carry in 2025.

This offense is highly likely to operate via heavy rates of 12-personnel this season, and why wouldn’t they? Their top four pass catchers are clearly Cedric Tillman (yea, he’s first, damnit), David Njoku, Harold Fannin, and Jerry Jeudy (yea, he’s last, damnit – argue with a wall). I also found it interesting that rookie undrafted free agent Isaiah Bond ranks third in snaps at the wide receiver position, ahead of preseason darling Jamari Thrash. Bond is a talented play maker with a laundry list of off-the-field issues (shocking for the Browns, I know). But, neither Bond nor Thrash are viable fantasy options while playing situational roles in the offense. The backfield has a whopping 21 targets on 93 team pass attempts (rookie Dillon Gabriel came into the loss to the Ravens last in the fourth quarter and slung the rock three times), good for a 22.6% target share for the Browns. Those targets have been spread to three players in the backfield, but it serves to highlight the structure of the offense at present. The tight ends have combined to account for 25 targets (26.9% target share), leaving a modest 49.5% of the targets to the wide receivers. The breakout then becomes red-zone involvement, an area of the field where Flacco clearly prefers Tillman. Tillman has two red-zone touchdowns on two red-zone targets (Jeudy has zero red-zone targets through two games, which has been a common theme throughout his career). 

LIKELIEST GAME FLOW ::

The Browns have been successful in shortening games through two weeks, the first coming against the Bengals and the second coming against the Ravens. The Ravens eventually broke through for the slaughter while the Bengals were fortunate to escape with a win. I expect more of the same here, with the game likeliest to be within reason throughout the first half. Like the Ravens, I expect the Packers to eventually assert their dominance in all phases, but the early chess match on the field should be a sight to behold. The Packers could also struggle with consistency on the ground against a stout Cleveland front, which influences the effectiveness of their play-action game plan. Overall play volume could then become an issue after the Browns ran a play every 30.3 seconds in their game against the Bengals, with the Packers averaging 31.1 second per play on the season. Quick maths here – that averages out to 117.2 expected offensive plays overall, or 58.6 per team. The Packers average 58 plays per game through two weeks. In other words, volume is unlikely here due to expected game environment, matchup, and previous tendencies, leaving touchdowns and efficiency as the best bet for fantasy viability from all players in this game.

DFS+ Interpretation ::