Game Overview ::
By Mike Johnson >>
- The Lions are still on the outside looking in at the NFC playoff picture.
- Detroit lost All-Pro defensive back Brian Branch to a torn Achilles in their last game, leaving their man-heavy coverage scheme vulnerable against a talented Rams passing game.
- Detroit’s offense has become more concentrated as the season wears on due to the loss of Sam LaPorta and the shrinking role of David Montgomery.
- The Rams backfield has turned into a true committee situation as the team embraces the breakout of second year running back Blake Corum, who is coming off his best game as a pro.
- Matthew Stafford, who continues to have a dominant season with 35 touchdown passes and only five turnovers, is likely to be pushed this week in a high leverage game.
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How detroit Will Try To Win ::
The Lions season has not gone as they hoped, but they are still very much alive in a wide-open NFC. Detroit enters Week 15 with an 8-5 record and sits in 8th place in the conference, a game behind the Chicago Bears, who are currently the 7th seed. The Lions beat the Bears handily in Week 2 and will face them again in Week 18, so if they can simply stay within a game of them heading into that final week, they will be able to control their own destiny and play their way in. That will be no small task, however, as the three games prior to that final week’s contest are this road game against the current NFC #1 seed, a home game against the current AFC North leading Steelers, and a road game against an always difficult Vikings team that already beat them once. Getting down to the point here, Detroit is already in “playoff mode” and has very little margin for error.
Detroit’s offense is coming off a game in which it dominated the Cowboys in an explosive and efficient manner. They averaged 7.2 yards per play (they lead the league in this statistic for the season at 6.2 yards per play), and Jared Goff easily went over 300 passing yards, while the touchdowns primarily came from the running game with Jahmyr Gibbs scoring three times and David Montgomery scoring once. Goff threw 34 passes in that game, with the “Big 3” of Gibbs, ARSB, and Williams combining for 25 of the team’s targets. Tight end Sam LaPorta was lost for the season in Week 10 against the Commanders, and since the,n the Lions have played three full games with everyone else on the field. In those games, the “Big 3” have accounted for just over 70% of the team’s targets. In this game, where they face a strong Rams run defense (3rd in run defense DVOA, 1st in PFF run defense grade), and we expect a lot of scoring, it stands to reason that Goff will be throwing often, and those targets will once again condense on this trio.
While the Rams have strong defensive metrics, the Lions will not simply abandon the run. Los Angeles has given up some strong games on the ground, including two weeks ago when the Panthers imposed their will. The Lions will attempt to stay as balanced as possible, especially early in the game. They will also look to involve their running backs in the receiving game, as some teams have had success against the Rams doing so this season. The Rams play a zone-heavy coverage scheme that is susceptible to intermediate areas of the field and particularly against in-breaking routes, as we saw last week when Michael Wilson posted a massive game against them. The film on Wilson’s performance looks eerily similar to Amon-Ra St. Brown’s style of play, and the matchup seems ripe for a massive game from ARSB. The team’s usage of Jameson Williams has expanded since head coach Dan Campbell took over play-calling duties, and he is used in more creative ways. We saw the Lions use screens to get the ball to him quickly last week and his speed is incredibly hard to defend on crossing routes against man coverage, but given the Rams primary coverages we can expect him to be used more in a vertical fashion to open things up underneath and a lot of his targets to come from hitches and outbreaking routes once he gets a defender’s hips turned.
The Rams are a very good defense, but they also play a style that allows opponents to move the ball and have some vulnerabilities. In terms of who the Rams will be most concerned with, I actually believe Williams will be a top priority for them to contain. The reason for this is that most teams have a player like ARSB, just not one as good as him. On the other hand, the speed of Williams is a unique threat that very few teams bring to the table. An offense like Detroit’s should be able to generate offense, and their game plan entering the game will be focused heavily on getting Gibbs and ARSB the ball in space.
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