XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
Sunday night should be a fun one, as the Lions visit the Chiefs for a massive 52.5-point total game with Kansas City favored by 2.5. Patrick Mahomes apparently was frustrated with me doubting the Chiefs’ offense, as they went out and scored 37 and 28 points in consecutive games (one against the Ravens, admittedly, but even still that’s impressive). The Lions are off to a roaring start offensively (see what I did there?) with just shy of 35 points per game, while both defenses have been middling so far. We’re likely to see some fireworks in this one, but I’d say it isn’t guaranteed – both defenses have plenty of talent and were very solid last year, while the Chiefs’ offense has largely been below average to average at best for the last couple of seasons now. Lots of ways this game can go.
kansas city
On the Chiefs’ side, the backfield is heartily mediocre overall (and they’re the highest pass rate over expectation offense in the league so far). Isiah Pacheco led the team with 63% of the snaps last week but it only resulted in 10 opportunities, while Kareem Hunt played 33% of the snaps with eight opportunities but managed to score two touchdowns. They’re super cheap – just $4k for Pacheco and $4.6k for Hunt, which keeps them in play as value options – but the ceilings are pretty low here. I prefer Pacheco personally as he’s on the field a lot more and has 12 targets on the season to Hunt’s seven.
Showdown Ownership Projections!
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In the passing game, Xavier Worthy is the alpha, with JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquise Brown, and Tyquan Thornton playing meaningful WR snaps. Worthy has seen eight and nine targets since returning from injury, with three carries as well – he’s a guy they want to get the ball to. In the highest-total game the Chiefs have played yet, Worthy looks underpriced at $9k – he’s a WR1 but not quite priced like it. He’s a solid play with the speed to score from anywhere. Everyone else is a value option. JuJu is no longer an explosive player, but he’s playing the second-most snaps of the Chiefs wideouts and he’s $2.8k, which is just too cheap for how much he’s on the field. He’s a very solid value option who should project right around the kickers but is materially cheaper than them. Brown is $5.4k and in a pretty high-volume role, albeit with little per-target upside with an ADOT of 9.2 yards. I hate to say it, but I actually prefer JuJu to Brown, as their roles are fairly similar but JuJu is half the price. Thornton, on the other hand, is playing modest snaps but leads the NFL with a massive 23.9-yard aDOT – we were on him in the last Chiefs Showdown and he racked up 90 yards on just three catches, but only saw five targets. That’s the kind of performance we can expect to see from Thornton. The way I see Thornton is if you’re building for a high-scoring shootout, he’s a stronger play, because if this game gets to 60+ points there’s a good chance the Chiefs score at least one long touchdown with a quick drive and good odds Thornton is involved in that.
At tight end, Travis Kelce is the very definition of a solid-floor, low-ceiling pass catcher with 9.8 or more DK points in four of five games, but he hasn’t yet cracked 20. He doesn’t have the same kind of yardage upside as he used to and will probably need two touchdowns to really find a ceiling. He can do that in a high-scoring game, but I generally shy away from guys who probably need two scores to find ceiling outcomes at their prices. Noah Gray’s a viable punt option, but with JuJu at $2,800 he somewhat sucks the life out of most of the other punt plays down in that price range.
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