GAME OVERVIEW ::
BY HILOW >>
- Jets will be without QB Justin Fields, who has already been ruled out for Week 3 with a concussion.
- The Jets will start Tyrod Taylor, who most recently started five games for the Giants in 2023. In those five starts, he averaged 6.4 carries for 32 yards on the ground.
- The Buccaneers match up well to limit New York’s preferred offensive structure, which should serve to force them to the air at an earlier, and greater, frequency.
- Emeka Egbuka should see less Sauce Gardner than Mike Evans, setting him up well to continue his hot start to his rookie campaign.
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HOW nEW YORK WILL TRY TO WIN ::
The Jets have a -13.4% pass rate over expectation (PROE) in 2025. The next closest team in lowest PROE are the Seahawks at -4.6%. They also have extreme splits in overall pass/rush rates dependent on half, with a first-ranked 58.2% rush rate in the first half and a middling 38.9% rush rate in the second half of their first two games. Taylor is not the mobile quarterback he once was, but he still has some chops on the ground. He most recently started five games for the Giants in 2023, averaging 6.4 carries and 32 yards per game. Those come together to lead me to believe the structure of the offense will remain largely unchanged in the absence of Fields, who has already been ruled out for Week 3 with a concussion sustained in the fourth quarter of the team’s Week 2 loss to the Bills. The problem with that is that the matchup against the Buccaneers is extremely difficult on the ground (more on this below) and Taylor does not bring the same upside that Fields does with his legs, considering this is his age-36 season. That means we should expect New York’s efficiency to dip. Even so, I expect the Jets to begin the game with a similar structure to what we have seen through two weeks. This overall game plan would also work better with a defense playing at the same high level as in previous seasons, but that hasn’t been the case. The early tape on this team paints the picture of a middling unit, one that is likely to get better as the season progresses after significant offseason personnel and coaching changes.
Fields was injured on a sack at the start of the fourth quarter against the Bills, with the Jets already down 30-3. The team ran 17 offensive plays over two drives with Taylor under center following Fields’ departure, three of which were Taylor scrambles (he would have had a fourth but it went down as a sack after only making it to the line of scrimmage). All of that to say, Taylor has always carried an elevated scramble rate and we should expect more of the same against a Buccaneers team that we know is going to be throwing unique blitz packages at the veteran. The pure rushing matchup on the ground is one of the worst on the slate, yielding a net 1.71 adjusted line yards before contact per attempt, with the Buccaneers ranked 10th in that metric and the Jets ranked 27th to start the season. Lead back Breece Hall has seen a combined 36 opportunities through two games, starting the season with 23 in a close game against the Steelers before dropping to 13 in their blowout loss to the Bills. A normal workload likely resides somewhere in the middle considering his “lead back” role, one that is far from a workhorse load. Braelon Allen is on hand for change-of-pace duties, while Isaiah Davis appears locked into an obvious passing down role.
Josh Reynolds did not practice Wednesday after missing the Week 2 game against the Bills, indicating there’s a high likelihood he misses against the Buccaneers. It was veteran journeyman Tyler Johnson (and former Buc) that stepped into his role in the offense last week, something we should expect until Reynolds is ready to return from a hamstring injury. The Jets would prefer to play from heavier packages through increased snaps from tight end Jeremy Ruckert, something they were forced to stray from against the Bills. I expect them to start from a heavy base and adjust as the game moves along. Fields appeared to continue his tendency of locking onto his top option through the air to start the season, whereas the experience of Taylor is slightly less likely to simply feed Garrett Wilson heavy volume. That makes Wilson a shakier fantasy bet than it would have been with Fields under center, and leaves me with little interest in any pass-catcher in this offense despite a matchup and game environment that should eventually tilt additional volume to the pass game. Finally, rookie tight end Mason Taylor is clearly the top option at the position, but his snap rate is held in check by his relative shortcomings in blocking.
HOW TAMPA BAY WILL TRY TO WIN ::
The structure of the Buccaneers remains largely unchanged as compared to last season. Their defense is going to look to generate disruption via increased, and unique, blitzes while their offense utilizes a pass-balanced approach, a dynamic run-blocking system, and layered routes to create space for their top playmakers. They should have no issues moving the ball effectively against a Jets defense still looking to find its identity under new head coach Aaron Glenn and defensive coordinator Steve Wilks. One thing to keep an eye on as the season progresses is the defense’s ability to generate pressure, because they have struggled in that area through two games (28.6% blitz rate and modest 11.7% pressure rate). I don’t see that becoming an issue against a Jets offensive line allowing pressure at a 29% rate, but it is something to keep in our back pockets for future games.
The Buccaneers’ total play volume and pace are typically going to be dependent on their opponent. They ran just 58 offensive plays in their Week 1 win over a Falcons team that was able to sustain drives against them, and then ran 80 offensive plays in a game against the Texans where both defenses drove the game environment. Bucky Irving is the clear lead back in a “tick below workhorse but bigger than lead back” role. He played 76% and 71% of the offensive snaps and handled 18 and 23 opportunities against the Falcons and Texans, respectively. Rachaad White remains the change-of-pace back and scored on a goal-line carry in Week 2, leaving Irving without a carry inside the five this season (and with a moderate 15.8 expected fantasy points per game). We haven’t yet seen ceiling from Irving, but it is likely to surface at some point this season. For all the relative struggles of the New York defense through two games, their run defense remains stout. They have ceded just 1.48 yards before contact per attempt (second) and 4.4 yards per carry through two games.
Egbuka has led the team in snaps and route participation in consecutive games to begin his professional career. We should expect that to continue considering the absences of Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan and the age of Evans. Sterling Shepard has filled in as the WR3 with a snap rate dependent on personnel groupings, while tight end Cade Otton continues to play almost every offensive snap but is effectively an afterthought in the aerial attack. That leaves expected target volume highly concentrated on Egbuka, Evans, and the backfield. Egbuka has hit the ground running, scoring three touchdowns through two games, and appears to be one of the most pro-ready receivers from this year’s class. I’m not sure if Evans will draw a Gardner shadow, but Evans is almost certainly going to see more Gardner than Egbuka, with Egbuka likely seeing more Brandon Stephens and Michael Carter coverage.
LIKELIEST GAME FLOW ::
The Buccaneers have built their defense in a way that matches up extremely well against the way we expect the Jets to want to attack here, which yields a situation where we should expect Tampa to eventually assert control of the game environment. That should eventually lead the Jets out of structure and reliant on increased dropbacks from Taylor, which is exactly where Todd Bowles’ defense wants him. He’ll likely add a bit of production on the ground through an elevated scramble rate, but not enough to give him a substantial ceiling. Altering the likeliest game flow would require the Jets to either find early offensive success, which would allow them to stick to their run-based attack longer, or for the Jets to connect through the air once they are forced to alter their approach. Neither of those tributaries are overly likely here.
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