Jets (

19.25) at
Bengals (

24.75)

Game Overview ::

By PAPY324 >>

• The most notable injury on the Jets is CB Sauce Gardner, who missed Wednesday’s practice while in concussion protocol.
• The Bengals are relatively healthy, with only DE Cameron Sample and CB Marco Wilson missing practice on Wednesday with a knee and a hammy, respectively.
• The Jets haven’t revealed who is going to start at QB, but Tyrod Taylor looks like the favorite.
• Breece Hall played only 54% of the snaps last week working in a near-even timeshare with Isaiah Davis. 
• Josh Reynolds played 95% of the snaps and saw nine targets as the Jets’ WR1 last week, but he did nothing with his opportunity. 
• The Bengals, like the rest of the league, let Joe Flacco throw the ball nearly 50 times.
• Ja’Marr Chase is good at football, and you don’t need to know the plays if the play is always throwing the ball to Ja’Marr.
• Chase Brown played his best game of the season last week, but a lot of that came from the Steelers middle-school-level tackling. 

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How new york Will Try To Win ::

The 0-7 Jets come into Week 8 as the last team with a chance to achieve a prestigious 0-17 record. Their best outcome for the season is coming away with the first overall pick, and things are starting to unravel in New York. This week, owner Woody Johnson publicly ripped Justin Fields saying, “If we can just complete a pass, it would look good” about the offense. He also failed to place any blame on head coach Aaron Glenn, saying that Glenn has “turned around parts of the team” and even included that he hugs Glenn after every game. He also didn’t accept any of the responsibility himself for the Jets having the worst record in the league since 2019. Losing franchises stay losing franchises because of poor ownership, but naturally, none of this is Johnson’s fault. Glenn may have escaped criticism from the owner, but he won’t escape it here. The Jets offense has been playing at a moderate pace (12^th in seconds per play), but that is misleading because they’re always losing. They play at a below-average situational-neutral pace, but it is worth noting that offense changed when Taylor was at QB. It’s a small sample size, but the Jets did play at a positive situational-neutral pace with Taylor at the helm. If that trend holds, it’s possible this game will have more plays than we’ve seen out of the Jets with Fields under center. It’s currently up in the air who will start at QB, because according to boomer Glenn, he didn’t want to give the Bengals a “competitive advantage” in knowing who will be under center. Ya, I’m sure they’re having night sweats trying to decide if you’re playing Taylor or Fields. 

Crash the leaderboards

PFP the OWS pennant

The Bengals have been clobbered on the ground (29^th in DVOA) and skewed through the air (30^th in DVOA). The Bengals are the worst (32^nd in total DVOA) defense in the league, ever so slightly edging out the Dolphins.  The Bengals can’t stop anything, which means teams will typically attack them in their preferred method. The Jets have avoided throwing (32^nd in PROE) with their offense looking like something from the Vince Lombardi era. Maybe that’s because they don’t trust Fields? Maybe it’s because Aaron “Father Time” Glenn is uncreative? Maybe it’s because the owner failed to build a roster with one than one NFL-caliber WR? Whatever the reason, it’s not because the Jets’ revamped offense line (25^th-ranked by PFF) has been good.  They gave up five sacks last week (most in the league), with everyone except C Josh Myers being responsible for at least one sack. The Jets’ O-line got a lot of hype coming into the season, with many analysts predicting they would make a leap into qualifying as one of the top 10 units in the league. That simply hasn’t happened, as the O-line, along with everyone else, has significantly underperformed. When all phases of a team underperform, that usually has to do with coaching, but I hear Glenn gives one heck of a hug. If Fields starts at QB, expect another run-heavy game plan played at a slog pace. If Taylor starts at QB, expect the same, but with the caveat that they might speed things up and try to throw more because they trust their backup QB more than their starter. 

How cincinnati Will Try To Win ::

This is an interesting game for DFS, because while both teams are bad, we know that the Bengals are going to chuck it all over the yard. We also know that the reason both teams are bad (mostly the reason) is because they have two of the worst defenses in the league. That means we have two of the worst defenses in the league facing off in a game that might go overlooked by the field. With that in mind, let’s break this one down for DFS. 

The Jets Passing Game 

Glenn looks like he should be giving lawn care tips rather than telling us how he’ll be gaining a competitive advantage, but since NFL coaches would rather conceal who is playing than game plan, we must speculate who is going to play QB. I’d guess Taylor ($4,500) starts this game based on the public criticism the Jets owner aimed at Fields ($5,000). Taylor might be better than Fields, but I’d hate to split the difference. Either way, this game is going to feature a cheap running QB against a bad defense. I’d feel better playing Taylor at the $500 discount because the Jets have shown they trust him more, and if Fields starts, there is a real risk of an in-game benching. I’ll have some interest in Taylor, but I’ll stay off Fields. The Jets’ healthy WRs are Reynolds ($3,900), Allen Lazard ($3,400), and Arian Smith ($3,200). Reynolds saw nine targets last week and is priced below $4,000 so I guess he must stay on my list, but he feels like a thin play. I can’t advocate for any of the other members of this WR room. Mason Taylor ($3,500) is probably the Jets’ best pass catcher, so naturally, he was ignored till midway through the third quarter last week. He’s my favorite stacking partner with a Jets QB, but I don’t see myself going here on a tighter build. 

The Jets Running Game

Hall ($6,300) makes sense in theory, but he played only 54% of the snaps last week with Davis seeing the field for 48% of the snaps. If this backfield is going to become a timeshare, neither guy is going to be playable. It’s worth noting that Hall drastically outpaced Davis in opportunities (14-6), but that can change in an instant if both guys are seeing the field half the time. I want to recommend Hall, but his best games this season have come against Dallas (22 DK points), Pittsburgh (20 DK points), and Miami (16 DK points). Those scores all came against sorry defenses, and while they’d be “ok” at his price, none of them would be what you’d want to win a tournament. Hall failed to crack 10 DK points in his other games, and while the Bengals defense falls into the category of sorry, I don’t think it’s worth gambling on Hall only playing half the snaps for 20 DK-point upside. I don’t see myself using Hall on my tighter builds.  

The Bengals Passing Game 

Flacco ($5,400) isn’t going to do anything with his legs which drops his floor, but there is a good chance he throws for 300 yards. He’s affordably priced for a guy we confidently predict will throw 40 passes. I’m interested in Flacco, and if playing Flacco, Chase ($8,100) and Tee Higgins ($5,600) feel like must-stacks. If Sauce plays, I could see the argument for using only Higgins since Sauce has done a good job locking up the other team’s WR1 while everyone else in the passing game feasts. If Sauce misses, it’s yard out for the Bengals WRs, as they will be playing one of the softest secondaries in the league without their best player. I’m likely to use Flacco on my tighter builds, stacking with one or both of Chase and Higgins.  

The Bengals Running Game

Chase Brown ($5,400) is coming off his best game of the season. He forced 10 missed tackles in Weeks 1-6 and forced seven missed tackles last week. A lot of that has to do with the Steelers, but it’s still encouraging to see Brown looking more like what we saw from him last season. Brown’s price is finally low enough that he could be worth taking a shot at, with the main issue being that the Jets run defense has been their team’s lone bright spot. If I play Bengals, I’m going to use a passing game stack, which means I probably won’t get Brown onto my lineups this week. I see him as more of a salary-saving piece, rather than a critical part of a stack.  If I build a roster where his salary fits, I’ll consider Brown, but he’s not going to be a target for me. 

Final Thought

This game has more appeal for DFS than I expected, but it’s also a high variance contest between two bad teams. The Bengals passing game looked functional with Flacco, but the Steelers also left everyone wide open. The Jets offense is in shambles, and even though the Bengals defense has been horrific, I think I’d rather play the Bengals D ($2,700) than anyone from the Jets’ side. The lone exception is Reynolds who played a ton (95% of the snaps) and saw nine targets. He didn’t turn his targets into anything, but it’s hard to ignore that kind of usage from a guy who is priced like a punt. I’ll probably stack this game on one of my tighter builds with Flacco + Chase + Higgins + Reynolds, but I don’t have a high confidence interval.