Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- RB Bhayshul Tuten returned to limited sessions in each practice through Thursday, indicating a potential return against the Colts.
- CB Sauce Gardner was listed as a limited participant on Thursday, although the team did not hold a practice.
- Head coach Shane Steichen confirmed it will be Philip Rivers under center in Week 17.
- These are two of the league’s strongest run defenses.
JM’S JOURNAL ::
Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.
How jacksonville Will Try To Win ::
The Denver win over the Chiefs on Christmas made it so the Jaguars no longer have a shot at the No. 1 seed out of the AFC, but they can still move into the No. 2 seed over the Patriots if the latter stumbles. They could also lose the division lead to the Texans if they falter, making these final two games of utmost importance to playoff seeding in Jacksonville. The past two games go down as two of the three most positive PROE games for the Jags this season and also account for the only two instances in which quarterback Trevor Lawrence accounted for more than three touchdowns. After clearly searching for their identity with a new head coach in the first half of the season, the Jaguars have averaged 33 points per game since their Week 8 bye, which, for those keeping track at home, would rank as the league’s top scoring offense if extrapolated to the full season. Willy nilly extrapolation in a “fun with numbers” manner is often misleading, but this is a large enough sample to carry weight, particularly considering a clear causal factor of the sample size being taken in the second half of a season with a new offensive system, head coach, and offensive play caller. Which is to say, we should expect the Jaguars to find a way to score points against the Colts.
Bhayshul Tuten was thought to have sustained an injury that would cost him the remainder of the regular season just two weeks ago, but consecutive limited sessions to start the week of preparation hint at a potential return after just one missed game. I tentatively expect that to happen, meaning he should slot back into his primary early-down, change of pace role behind established starter Travis Etienne. LeQuint Allen remains on hand to soak up clear passing downs, a role he has held throughout the season. Etienne somewhat quietly ranks seventh in total touchdowns at the running back position after his recent stretch of six scores in three games, although Tuten played all of 13 offensive snaps in that stretch. The one thing that hasn’t fully clicked for Liam Coen’s offense is his run game, now averaging just 4.1 yards per carry on the season. For comparison, that’s the same as the Bengals and Texans, two teams we do not laud as proficient on the ground. Furthermore, the Colts currently rank third in yards allowed per carry (3.8) and fifth in rush yards allowed per game (98.5). This is far from a pristine matchup for this backfield, although it is foolish to completely write off a backfield for a team averaging over 33 points per game over a solid eight-game sample.
It took Trevor Lawrence a long time to get the juices flowing under his new tutelage, but I have to say, he has truly turned a corner of late. He has thrown for multiple touchdowns in five straight after doing so just twice in his first 10 games, including 10 total touchdowns in the last two. I don’t know if we can directly point to the addition of Jakobi Meyers as the saving grace of the offense, but it sure does appear that way on the surface. Not only does the recent stretch of elite offensive production coincide with the games played after the team’s bye, but it also coincides with the acquisition of Meyers at the trade deadline. No longer is this a “Brian Thomas Jr and everyone else” setup. Furthermore, the coming-out party of Parker Washington has been much needed in Jacksonville, particularly after the small-market team allowed Evan Engram to walk in free agency this offseason. That’s important for the Jags because the structure of Coen’s offense is designed to place stress on multiple levels of the field, which the team can now do efficiently throughout a game. The status of Indianapolis cornerback Sauce Gardner likely plays an immense role in the matchup we expect for the Jaguars this week due to a clear shift in defensive tendencies with him present or absent. The Colts went from one of the highest Cover-3 defenses in the league to one of the highest man defenses in the league once Gardner was added at the deadline, then shifted back to a Cover-3 base when he was injured. None of Thomas, Meyers, or Washington has separated from the pack against Cover-3 since Week 9, while Meyers has seen a team-leading 0.25 TPRR against man and Washington has seen a team-leading 2.84 YPRR and leads the team in FP/RR against man (0.57) in that same span.
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