GAME OVERVIEW ::
BY HILOW >>
- Jaguars dealt RB Tank Bigsby to the Eagles. We should see rookie Bhayshul Tuten step into his vacated role while Travis Etienne operates as the clear lead back in a Liam Coen offense.
- In Al Golden’s first game as the defensive coordinator for the Bengals, they were about as vanilla as they come – 4.2% blitz rate, 35.4% Cover-1 rate, very little movement in the second level.
- The Cincinnati offense also remains as vanilla as they come – little pre-snap motion, almost no play action, heavy rates of shotgun, Ja’Marr Chase on the line of scrimmage.
- The Bengals could find themselves in trouble against an opponent like the Jaguars, who are capable of stressing them deep.
- This game has all the makings of a get-right spot for Brian Thomas Jr.
HOW jacksonville WILL TRY TO WIN ::
The Liam Coen era in Jacksonville was a sight to behold. We saw increased rates of play action and pre-snap motion, route structures were layered and designed to generate space for his playmakers, the run scheme was dynamic, using everything from pulling guards, to misdirection, to pre-snap motion-aided blocking schemes, to an end-around touchdown for Thomas. Execution was still not all there, as Trevor Lawrence absolutely locked into his first read (fourth-highest first-read target rate in Week 1, 80.6%), but that also speaks to the general goal of Coen’s offense, which is to simplify things for his signal-caller. I expect this offense to continue to grow as the season progresses. I would love to see Lawrence less reliant on his intermediate option as his first read, something he was far too comfortable with in Week 1 given a 7.4-yard aDOT and middling 9.7% deep-ball throw rate. Newcomer defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile used very little man coverage against the Panthers, broken down to 35.0% Cover-3, 20.0% Cover-4, and 17.5% Cover-6. I expect those trends to continue against the Bengals in an attempt to keep Chase in front of the back end.
The run game was the most noticeable improvement for the Jaguars, which makes sense considering their offseason coaching hires. Etienne’s returns in Week 1 become that much more impressive when you realize the Jaguars blocked to the second-fewest adjusted yards before contact per attempt in Week 1, with Etienne generating a ridiculous 85 total yards after contact against the Panthers. A robust total of 61.5% of these rushing yards came via explosive runs, which is equal parts impressive as it is unsustainable. His 12.8 expected fantasy points tell a more accurate tale of his usage in this offense, at present. But then again, Coen’s backfields have made a name for outperforming expectations, just realize the early returns from Etienne are probably skewed a bit based on advanced metrics. The departure of Bigsby opens up the change-of-pace role for rookie Bhayshul Tuten, who should significantly improve upon the four offensive snaps he saw in Week 1. Most interesting to me was the inclusion of LeQuint Allen Jr in the offensive game plan. He saw nine offensive snaps, all of which were long down-and-distance snaps of third-and-3 or longer. That effectively reduces the weekly ceiling for Etienne slightly.
Golden’s static defense could be in a world of hurt against Thomas this week. A massive 35.4% Cover-1 rate with a lowly 4.2% blitz rate and only 10.4% pressure rate could expose their back end to speed. Rookie Travis Hunter was used heavily in the slot (76.0% slot snap rate) and carried a lowly 6.9-yard aDOT, which left both Thomas (11.9-yard aDOT) and Dyami Brown (13.5-yard aDOT) responsible for downfield work. Both Brown and Hunter were tasked with route rates in the sub-80% range, tight end Brenton Strange was held to a 60.6% route participation rate, and Thomas led the team with an 87.9% route participation rate. Brown theoretically could return upside if the Bengals pay additional defensive attention to Thomas, but I honestly don’t think they will after what I saw on tape in Week 1. All of that to say, it should be wheels up for Thomas in this spot. Thomas’ 2.72 yards per route run (YPRR), 0.29 targets per route run (TPRR), and 0.54 fantasy points per route run (FPRR) against Cover-1 in his rookie season has definite room for improvement, but this looks like a spot to shake off the Week 1 woes. It also makes sense that Hunter and Strange saw increased target rates against the Cover-3-heavy and zone-heavy ways of the Panthers, with the Bengals presenting a very different look this week.
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