Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- QB Jaxson Dart (concussion) got in back-to-back limited sessions to begin the practice week and likely needs to upgrade to a full participant Friday to suit up this week.
- WR Darius Slayton returned to a limited session Thursday after missing Wednesday’s practice with his hamstring injury.
- The Detroit secondary is still dealing with multiple key injuries, with CB Terrion Arnold (concussion) and S Kerby Joseph (knee) held out of both practices this week and S Brian Branch missing Wednesday before practicing in a limited fashion Thursday.
- The Lions will continue to be without TE Sam LaPorta, who hit IR before their Week 11 contest.
- The Giants have allowed an explosive run at the highest rate in the league (9.1%) and are now facing one of the most dynamic backs in the league in Jahmyr Gibbs.
- The Lions are averaging 29.2 points per game while scoring 34 points or more in five of 10 games, including 52 against the Bears and 44 against the Commanders after previous losses. They are not coming off a loss and are facing a bottom-feeder opponent at home. Enough said.
- These two teams play the most (Giants, 42.4%) and second-most (Lions, 39.8%) man coverage this season.
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How new YORK Will Try To Win ::
Much of how the Giants will try to win depends on the status of Dart considering the team ended Week 11 with the third highest rush rate over expectation (RROE) of any team, in any game, this season – it was veteran Jameis Winston that drew the start under center in that game. They weren’t exactly asking Dart to throw the football around the yard, but they were much more inclined to operate from a balanced position with the rookie under center. The constant threat of Dart’s legs also sustained more drives and allowed for greater efficiency on the ground as teams were forced to account for his dynamism on the ground, as evidenced by the team’s jump in rushing efficiency with Dart under center (3.94 YPC to 4.40 YPC). The team also averaged significantly more rushing production with Dart than without (107.5 rush yards per game without Dart and 134.6 rush yards per game with Dart).
It has been three weeks since the season-ending injury to Cam Skattebo, during which time Tyrone Tracy and Devin Singletary have split the backfield almost down the middle, something we thought could change with the team moving on from head coach Brian Daboll following Week 10. That was not the case, with Tracy seeing 19 carries and four targets on 51% of the offensive snaps to the 16 carries and one target of Singletary on 49% of the offensive snaps. Of note, Tracy has yet to record a carry inside the five in the absence of Skattebo while Singletary has yet to notch an explosive run. In fact, Tracy has no carries inside the five all season and Singletary has gone without an explosive run all season. That paints a clear picture for what to expect from this backfield moving forward. Expect Tracy to see the primary role between the 20s while Singletary operates in a clear change-of-pace role in those areas of the field, with the roles switching where it matters most. The Lions have held opponents to 4.0 yards per carry while facing a middling 42.18% opponent rush rate and are nearing full health in the first two levels while struggling on the back end. It’s a middling-to-below-average matchup on paper for a split backfield.
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Volume for the New York pass game could be an issue, regardless of who starts, but the case for the upside appears to reside with Dart over Winston. We’re also waiting to hear whether Slayton will return from a one-game absence due to a hamstring injury – his return to practice, even in a limited fashion, is a step in the right direction. Last week with Slayton out, Isaiah Hodgins immediately stepped into a 79% snap rate after rejoining the team earlier in the week, while the team understandably utilized elevated rates of 12-personnel through their tight-end cadre. This has been a 12-personnel-heavy offense throughout the season, but the injuries at wide receiver have more or less forced their hand. After starting the season in a surprisingly deep aDOT, Wan’Dale Robinson has shifted back to a low-aDOT, slot-heavy player, carrying a 6.8-yard aDOT that is shallower than tight end Theo Johnson since Malik Nabers was lost for the season in Week 4. Slayton boasts a 14.8-yard aDOT as the deep threat while Jalin Hyatt is playing a non-serious, field-stretching-only role (20.4-yard aDOT on 2.6 targets per game since Nabers went down).
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