GAME OVERVIEW ::
BY HILOW >>
- Dak Prescott looked like a top-tier quarterback in the team’s Week 1 loss to the Eagles.
- The NYG front seven might be one of the best in the league in 2025.
- That said, their secondary is a dumpster fire.
- The Giants have an absolutely brutal schedule to start the season, with the loss to the Commanders, the Cowboys, the Chiefs, and the Chargers over the first four weeks, before a “harder than public perception” matchup with the Saints, the Eagles twice, and the Broncos to round out their first eight games.
- I think it’s likely we see rookie QB Jaxson Dart at some point during that run.
- Malik Nabers saw his slot snap rate balloon to 38.5% in Week 1, something the Giants should look to emphasize with Cowboys’ NCB DaRon Bland likely out.
- Yea, I get it, CeeDee Lamb committed some costly drops against the Eagles in Week 1, but he remains the focal point of an offense that could challenge for the league lead in pass attempts this season.
- The George Pickens experience was George Pickensing in Week 1. The veteran headcase quit on numerous plays, displayed a mix of vicious blocking with snaps of zero effort, and has yet to develop the deep connection with Dak. There will likely be games this season where things fall into place and he wrecks a slate, but figuring out when that might be is likely to be painful.
HOW NEW YORK WILL TRY TO WIN ::
The Giants appeared to be overmatched against the Commanders in all aspects except their front seven, which performed admirably in a difficult spot. That should be the case for most of the year, as this team is stacked up front. Their secondary, on the other hand, is another story entirely. PFF charted Paulson Adebo 74th of 113 qualifying corners in coverage grade in Week 1, Deonte Banks 42nd of 113, and slot corner Dru Phillips 76th of 113. The could continue to get lit up through the air all season.
They also got torched for 220 yards on the ground against the Commanders and accounted for a lowly 24.1% stuff rate, ceding 8.2 yards per carry to rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt and 6.3 yards per carry to Jeremy McNichols. Even so, they yielded only 1.79 yards before contact per attempt in the face of an extremely difficult matchup. On the offensive side of the ball, quarterback Russell Wilson really struggled in the face of mounting pressure in Week 1 (33.3% pressure rate allowed), finishing ahead of only Bryce Young, Tua Tagovailoa, and Cam Ward in QBR while completing just 17 of 37 passes. The structure of the offense seemed “fine” on film – nothing overly flashy but they were trying to do things to create space for Nabers, including an elevated 38.5% slot snap rate.
Tyrone Tracy had a stranglehold on the backfield in Week 1, with an elevated 74% snap rate and 15 opportunities (of 22 total, 68.2% opportunity share). Unfortunately for him (and for the Giants), an ineffective offensive line that facilitated just 1.77 yards before contact per attempt suffocated any upside in those looks. He had zero explosive runs, a 60% stuff rate, one missed tackle forced, and a lowly 2.60 yards after contact per attempt. Here’s a fun one – 108.3% of Tracy’s yards in Week 1 came after contact – he had 24 yards, with 26 of them coming after contact. Not great, Bob. The Cowboys allowed 2.41 yards before contact per attempt in Week 1 but that was against the best offensive line in the league, and they managed to hold Saquon Barkley to just 3.3 yards per carry on 18 attempts. Volume should be there for Tracy here, but expecting a path to ceiling is asking a lot.
Nabers accounted for a ridiculous 68.6% of the team’s air yards in Week 1, played 100% of the offensive snaps, and was in a route at a solid 91.1% rate. This offense is still very much built around him. His 29.7% target rate, 0.27 targets per route run (TPRR), and 47.8% first-read target rate are all elite or borderline elite, but he’ll need improved quarterback play (what’s new) to return elite ceiling. It’s in there, waiting to be released, but Wilson is absolutely going to need to play better football (at least until Dart takes over under center). The good news for the Giants is that Bland appears on track to miss this one after suffering a foot injury, and Nabers can be schemed away from Trevon Diggs.
Nabers’ increased slot snap rate also lines him up opposite something called a “Reddy Steward” (sorry Reddy, no smoke intended), a former undrafted free agent that spent the bulk of his rookie season on the Bears’ practice squad, appearing in just one contest. That is a mismatch the Giants absolutely must take advantage of to be successful here. Darius Slayton remains a near deep-only option in the offense who is more useful for what he does to manipulate opposing defenses, Wan’Dale Robinson remains a near slot-only gadget short-area option, and second-year tight end Theo Johnson committed two drops on three targets in Week 1. It’s largely Nabers or nothing here. Final note here – Nabers managed 2.31 YPRR, 46.1% air yards share, 0.30 TPRR, and 0.46 FP/RR against Cover-2, Cover-3, and Cover-4 in his rookie year (Cowboys almost exclusively played from these coverages in Week 1).
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