Falcons (

24.25) at
Panthers (

19.75)

GAME OVERVIEW ::

BY papy324 >>

• CB A.J. Terrell and OLB James Pearce both missed practices early in the week for the Falcons. 
• ILB Patrick Jones and DE Tershawn Wharton both missed practices early in the week for the Panthers.
• The Falcons have been much better on defense than expected, especially against the pass. 
• The Falcons have one of the lowest situational-neutral pass rates in the league and one of the lowest average depth of target.
• Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier have value in an excellent matchup.
• Kyle Pitts has been used more early on than in past seasons.
• Drake London hasn’t seen downfield targets and needs a lot of volume to hit with his current role.
• The Panthers still rank near the bottom of the league against the run.
• The Panthers just lost their starting center and right guard to the injured reserve.
• The Panthers are targeting their WRs at the highest rate in the league and Tetairoa McMillan looks the part of an alpha WR.
• Bryce Young is likely to throw over 40 times if the Falcons take a lead.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.

HOW ATLANTA WILL TRY TO WIN ::

The 1-1 Falcons come into Week 2 off an impressive win in prime time, on the road, over the Vikings. The Falcons haven’t been the fantasy-friendly shootout team everyone expected coming into the season. They’re 30^st in situational neutral pass rate, 31^st in pass rate over expectation (PROE), and 26^th in pass rate. No matter how you slice the data, the Falcons want to win on the ground. They’ve also done their best to reel in Michael Penix’s gunslinger tendencies. Last year Penix’s average depth of throw was 10.6 yards (second in the league), and this year that number is 6.9 yards (29^th). Elevated run rates paired with shallow passing has led Robinson to have RB2 usage overall, while Allgeier is the RB26 in usage. The Falcons have also played at a plodding pace (30^th in seconds per play), which has caused their games to yield the ninth-fewest combined snaps and third-fewest points. Pitts has been more involved than in previous years and is the TE12 in usage through two weeks. When you combine a slow pace of play, with extreme backfield work, and a little more Pitts, there hasn’t been much left for London or Darnell Mooney. Ray-Ray McCloud has all but disappeared.

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Even though the Falcons aren’t playing the way everyone anticipated, their style makes sense given what we’ve seen from their roster this season. They have an above-average O-line        (13^th-ranked by PFF), which has been boosted by run blocking. They surrendered 11 pressures on only 24 pass plays last week, which was good for the 29^th overall rating in pass-blocking efficiency. However, they still moved up three spots in PFFs O-line rankings because they were the best run-blocking unit. The Panthers were historically bad last year against the run and haven’t been great (25^th in DVOA) at stopping ground attack early this season. There is no reason for the Falcons to deviate from the way they’ve been playing in a matchup that most teams choose to attack on the ground. The final thing that’s changed about Atlanta this season is its defense. The Falcons seem to have found pass rushers in their two first-round rookies. The Falcons have allowed the second-fewest points and yards, which has lessened the need for their offense to be aggressive. Expect another slow-placed approach, with a focus on running the ball and playing defense. 

HOW CAROLINA WILL TRY TO WIN ::

The 0-2 Panthers were expected to improve this year, but so far, that hasn’t been the case. Their offense has been putrid, ranking bottom five in yards per play and points per game while committing the most turnovers in the league. They’ve been leaning into the pass, clocking in at 10^th in situational-neutral pass rate, 14^th in PROE, and third in overall pass rate. The Panthers would like to be a balanced offense, but they are always losing, so they’ve ended up throwing at a top-five rate. When they do pass, they’ve been targeting their WRs at the highest rate in the league. McMillan has looked the part of a top-10 pick, Hunter Renfrow has been a PPR scammer, and Xavier Legette looks like he should forget about football and take up a new hobby. Chuba Hubbard has established himself as the clear lead back, and with all the passing, has made a living with receiving work to start the season. He should continue to get the lion’s share of backfield work. The Panthers rank in the bottom 10 in situational-neutral pace but are fifth in seconds per play. Like their passing game splits, this indicates the Panthers want to play slowly and balanced but have been forced to play quickly and pass-happy. 

The Panthers’ O-line is below average (20^th-ranked by PFF) and fell a whopping five spots in the rankings this week. That’s because they were devastated by injury, losing their starting center and starting right guard to injured reserve. Center Austin Corbett was a solid starter, but RG Robert Hunt was a massive loss. Hunt was their best player up front and Chandler Zavala struggled in relief in Week 2, giving up four pressures on just 22 pass plays. It’s difficult for any O-line to overcome losing two starters in the same week, especially when one of them is the unit’s best player. The Falcons have been brutal against the pass (No. 2 in DVOA), and above-average against the run (10^th in DVOA), which doesn’t leave an obvious path of least resistance to attack. The Panthers are going to start out with a balanced attack, but don’t be surprised if they end up with a high pass rate after falling behind early. 

LIKELIEST GAME FLOW ::

This game has a moderate total (43.5), with the Falcons installed as comfortable (-5.5) road favorites. The fact the Falcons are a large road favorite shows you how far apart these teams have moved since the start of the season. This matchup favors how the Falcons want to attack, and with the Panthers happy to start out slowly/balanced, there is a good chance this is the type of game that looks closer than it is going into halftime. The Falcons are likely to pull ahead in the third quarter, riding a steady wave of successful runs and short passes. Once the Falcons take the lead, the Panthers will turn into a pass-happy, fast-paced offense, which will play right into the teeth of the Falcons’ surprisingly top-notch pass defense. Expect the Falcons to end up with a multiple-score lead, even if things stay close through the first couple of quarters. 

DFS+ Interpretation ::