Game Overview ::
By Mike johnson >>
- The Eagles defense has been dominant recently, holding the Packers and Lions to a combined 16 points in the two games since their bye week.
- Dallas is playing on a short week after dominating the Raiders on Monday night as they returned from their Week 10 bye.
- These teams met in Week 1 on opening night in a game that Dallas led early and slowed things down for a bit, but the Eagles ultimately pulled away.
- Dallas plays zone coverage at a rate that is near the top of the league, and notably dropped into very conservative coverages against the Eagles the first time they played.
- Cowboys home games this season have resulted in cumulative point totals of 77, 80, 66, and 44 points.
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How philadelphia Will Try To Win ::
It is difficult for us to figure out exactly who the Eagles are because the Eagles still don’t really know who they are. We have seen glimpses of a team willing to change things up and be more aggressive, but they seem to continuously go back into their shell and rely on the crutch of grinding out low scoring games, which their elite defense and offensive line tend to let them get away with. The Eagles have played ten games this season and have scored 20 or fewer points in half of those contests. Meanwhile, in their other five games, they have scored 28 or more points four times, as they tend to be an all-or-nothing proposition on the scoreboard. If we look for commonalities in their higher scoring games, we can see they came against weaker defenses (NYG and DAL), aggressive defenses (TB and MIN), and a good defense that jumped out to a big first half lead and left them no choice (LAR).
This week, the Eagles get a rematch with a Cowboys defense that has been very bad for most of this season, but has made significant personnel improvements recently with the acquisitions of All-Pro defensive tackle Quinnen Williams and linebacker Logan Wilson, along with the returns of defensive back Malik Hooker and linebacker DeMarvion Overshown. The Cowboys had a Week 10 bye and faced a Raiders offense in Week 11 that is fundamentally the exact opposite of the Eagles, so their strong showing there doesn’t necessarily prove much to us, but anyone who looks at this matchup with a Dallas defense that has been like Swiss cheese for most of the season as if they will be that same unit is jumping to conclusions far too quickly.
The Eagles offensive line will be without All-Pro tackle Lane Johnson, who they have had significant dips in efficiency when playing without. The Eagles had a stretch where they were throwing the ball at a high rate relative to expectation, but have fallen back from that significantly in the last month as they have the sixth lowest PROE in the NFL. This has been especially drastic over the two games since their bye against the Packers and Lions, as the Eagles ran the ball on 58% of their offensive plays despite never trailing in either game. The absence of Johnson, plus the improvements of the Dallas defense will likely leave the Eagles running the ball with less efficiency, but they will likely stick with it unless the Cowboys are able to put some points up on their defense.
Dallas plays zone coverage on nearly 80% of their defensive plays, and those coverages tend to be more conservative in nature. When these teams played in Week 1, the Cowboys did not blitz once in the first half. They picked up the pressure somewhat in the second half once they fell further behind, but their initial approach was to drop more players into coverage and force Philadelphia to pick them apart in the short areas of the field and take long drives marching the field. Jalen Hurts completed 83% of his passes and took what the Cowboys gave him. We should expect a similar approach early in this game from Dallas, which is likely to result in the Eagles working the short areas of the field with DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, and Saquon Barkley. The team has struggled to get A.J. Brown going this season, and that has especially been the case against teams that do not blitz much or play high rates of man coverage, which he has historically torched. Brown was targeted only once, the first time these teams met, and it was on a short 8-yard out route in the 4th quarter. Other than that, the team did not have any need to force the ball in his direction. The Eagles are likely to be able to move the ball, but may have more drives stall out against Dallas than you would expect, with the Cowboys getting stronger from a personnel standpoint. Short area passing and rushes by Barkley and Hurts will be the primary methods of moving the ball, with Philadelphia’s dominance in short yardage once again being the crutch they lean on to control the game.
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