Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- The injury to Tyreek Hill is likely to fundamentally alter the Miami offense, with the likeliest scenario leading to a heavier emphasis on attacking the short-to-intermediate areas of the field through the air, similar to what they were forced to do last season.
- De’Von Achane saw a combined 19 targets in Weeks 2 and 3, and I would expect that to become closer to the norm without Hill in the fold moving forward.
- RB Chuba Hubbard and TE Ja’Tavion Sanders have yet to practice this week, as of Thursday. Hubbard reportedly emerged from the team’s Week 4 loss with an aggravated calf injury that limited him in practice the previous week. He appears to be legitimately questionable heading into Week 5.
- The paths to this game environment taking off are borderline nonexistent considering the current state of each team.
JM’S JOURNAL ::
Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.
How miami Will Try To Win ::
Hill has been the primary downfield option in this Miami offense in each of the previous two seasons, with no other wide receiver that plays a consistent role seeing an aDOT deeper than the 9.5-yard mark Jaylen Waddle held in 2024 (8.2 in 2025). Malik Washington theoretically carries the skill set to work in a similar role, but he has held low aDOTs (5.4 in 2024, 4.3 in 2025) in this offense during his career. I don’t expect Waddle to see drastic changes to his structure in the offense, meaning the team is left bereft of a viable field stretcher moving forward. To me, that is likely to leave the offense mirroring what we saw last season, when they simply weren’t able to consistently attack downfield due to the shortcomings of their offensive line. We saw head coach Mike McDaniel alter the structure of the offense to offset those inabilities, instead focusing heavily on the short-to-intermediate areas of the field through the air. I would expect a similar approach moving forward, bringing a likely increased emphasis on Achane and newcomer Darren Waller. And since Waller managed just 10 routes on 16 offensive snaps in his first game action in almost two calendar years in Week 4, I think it’s likely we see Achane return to a role in which he is challenging for double-digit targets, considering Jonnu Smith combined with Achane to account for 11.4 targets per game a season ago.
The matchup is also pristine on the ground for Achane against a Panthers team allowing 4.9 yards per carry behind 2.12 yards before contact per attempt this year. Achane is averaging a robust 4.92 yards per carry with a middling 46.0% stuff rate and solid 0.22 missed tackles forced per attempt and 3.08 yards after contact per attempt. That said, he doesn’t have a carry inside the five and the Miami offensive line remains an issue, having blocked to only 1.84 yards before contact per Achane attempt. Achane’s ebb-and-flow aerial volume has left him ranked 12th in the league in expected fantasy points per game (XFP/G), although he ranked third in XFP/G in Weeks 2 and 3, during which he saw 19 total targets. Considering the exploration above, I think it’s likely that level of volume returns here, making him an elite on-paper play on this slate. Rookie Ollie Gordon has seen 25% of the offensive snaps in three of four games as the primary change-of-pace and short-yardage back, including the only carries for the Dolphins inside the five this season.
Continuing the discussion above, this team is left with no true downfield threat in the absence of Hill. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine ran a 4.57 40-yard dash six years ago when he entered the league and has a 3.5-yard aDOT this year, Washington has held a sub-5.5-yard aDOT in consecutive years, and Dee Eskridge has played a total of 25 offensive snaps this season. If anything, I think it could be Eskridge that functions as more of an “empty field stretcher” considering his speed (4.38 40) and veteran savvy, if nothing more than to give the offense the appearance of downfield ability. Eskridge also has a 10.7-yard aDOT this season, albeit on just three looks on only 17 routes. Waddle averages 5.8 targets per game in 2025 after averaging 5.5 looks per game a season ago, and I honestly don’t see his per-game target totals jumping immensely without Hill. You have to go back to 2021 – the year before Hill was traded to the Dolphins – to find a season in which Waddle averaged more than 7.4 targets per game (Hill is at 7.3 this season), and his 8.7 targets per game in that season was accompanied by a low 5.4-yard aDOT in the pre-McDaniel era in Miami.
You must be logged in to view collective notes about a game.
You must be logged in to add notes about a game.