Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- Dolphins TE Darren Waller suffered a pectoral strain in Week 7 and has been labeled “week-to-week.” It appears highly likely he misses Week 8 against the Falcons. UPDATE: Waller was placed on IR and will miss the next four games, at minimum.
- The Falcons have legitimate home-road splits this season, averaging 26.0 points per game at home versus 10.7 on the road.
- The Dolphins also sneakily carry immense location-based splits in 2025, averaging 27.0 poinst per game at home versus just 14.8 on the road.
- Falcons released WR Ray-Ray McCloud amidst a “private matter.”
- Falcons QB Michael Penix (foot) was labeled “day-to-day” by HC Raheem Morris after suffering a bone bruise in his foot in Week 7.
- Both teams are in the bottom half of the league in pass rate over expectation (PROE); Atlanta ranks top 10 in total play volume while the Dolphins rank dead last.
- De’Von Achane sets up well here to see robust pass-game usage.
JM’S JOURNAL ::
Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.
How MIAMI Will Try To Win ::
I talked a lot last week and already this week about the handful of teams still hunting to find their identity after the first seven weeks of the 2025 season – the Dolphins are one of those teams. I thought this team had a chance to turn the trajectory of their franchise around after playing the Patriots and Bills tough and then beating the Jets, but those thoughts quickly took a U-turn in their Week 5 loss to the Panthers. After the game, head coach Mike McDaniel appeared to be visibly dejected leaving the field, and those negative vibes came to a relative climax following their Week 7 dismantling at the hands of the Browns. In his Monday presser this week, McDaniel was asked about his expectations of his quarterbacks moving forward, to which he responded, “My expectation is that we don’t throw 10 interceptions.” Yikes. But this is still a team that has scored 21 or more points in all but two games this season, which is the same as the Bills, Cowboys, and Lions, to name a few other teams that fit that production. Which is to say, scoring has not been the primary issue for this team in 2025 – poor leadership and cohesion, inopportune turnovers, and a defense allowing 363.1 total yards of offense and 29.3 points per game are the true issues here. It wouldn’t be as bad if it were only McDaniel that appears to be losing the locking room, but we can add quarterback Tua Tagovailoa to that list after his postgame interview shenanigans following the team’s Week 6 loss, where he pretty much threw his entire team under the bus. Things are not copacetic in Miami.
Crash the leaderboards
PFP the OWS pennant
Before backups took over in a blowout loss in Week 7, Achane had handled no fewer than 73% of the team’s offensive snaps while spiking to a snap rate of 87% or higher in three of his first six games. He had also seen 20 or more opportunities in four of the first six games. That said, he peaked at 22 opportunities even while seeing ridiculously high snap rates, meaning he doesn’t appear to be a candidate to challenge the top players at the position as far as ceiling in volume is concerned. That leaves his weekly range of outcomes lacking when compared to other players near his current salary. Consistent pass-game involvement gives Achane one of the steadier weekly floors and the matchup should be viewed as middling-to-positive against a Falcons team allowing 1.80 yards before contact per attempt (17th) and 4.7 yards per carry (27th). Finally, rookie Ollie Gordon is typically good for about 25% of the offensive snaps in a given game as the clear change-of-pace option.
With Waller out and Tyreek Hill done for the season, the Dolphins are likely to be forced to march out Malik Washington, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Dee Eskridge, Julian Hill, and Tanner Conner for meaningful snaps alongside Jaylen Waddle this week. That simultaneously does little to inspire confidence in this team moving the football consistently against a stout Falcons defense and should concentrate volume heavily on Waddle and Achane through the air. And since Waddle is likely to be the player to draw isolation coverage from standout cornerback A.J. Terrell, this could be a game in which we see another spike week in targets directed towards Achane. Furthermore, the Atlanta linebacker corps is currently decimated by injury, with both Divine Deablo and Jalon Walker nursing what appear to be multi-week injuries.
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