GAME Overview ::
BY hilow >>
- The Dolphins almost completely shuffled their offensive line this offseason following the retirement of OT Terron Armstead.
- TE Darren Waller came out of retirement to join the Dolphins following the trade of Jonnu Smith.
- The Dolphins also almost completely shuffled their secondary this offseason.
- QB Tua Tagovailoa is healthy, WR Tyreek Hill is healthy(ish – missed time in camp with an oblique injury), De’Von Achane is healthy(ish – missed time in camp with a calf injury), Malik Washington looked good in preseason, Jaylen Waddle received nothing but glowing reports out of camp – the excuses are running out quickly in Miami.
- DC Lou Anarumo joins the Colts, bringing one of the most dynamic defenses in the league to Indianapolis. That can be really good or really bad, as we’ve seen throughout his career in Cincinnati. His defense is just so unpredictable and changes so much from game to game.
- Daniel Jones won the starting quarterback job for the Colts and is reportedly on a “long leash” this season.
- The Colts drafted TE Tyler Warren in the first round after utilizing a four-man rotation at the position the previous two seasons.
- The Colts boast a top-tier offensive line, which is important to early-season success.
HOW MIAMI WILL TRY TO WIN ::
Is there a team with a wider range of outcomes than the Dolphins this season? If you were following along with OWS last season, you know how we were able to diagnose the issues with the Dolphins before the rest of the field. Those issues stemmed from a general inability to get anything going consistently on the ground, which allowed the Dolphins’ opponents to increase their rates of two-high defensive alignments to halt their downfield passing (saw a league-high 56.1% two-high rate, and only the Raiders, Saints, Giants, and Browns averaged fewer fantasy points per dropback against two-high in 2024), in turn forcing them to adjust their offense to be based almost entirely on quick hits to the middle of the field as an extension of the run. That was the reason Smith had his breakout year, that was the reason (amongst some other contributing factors) that Hill stopped connecting on downfield chunk plays, that was the reason Waddle lost his consistency. Sure, the injuries to Tua exacerbated those issues, but it all stemmed from this team’s inability to run on their opponents.
Furthermore, Tua averaged just 2.30 seconds time to throw last season, which ranked dead last in the league and serves to highlight the changing dynamics of the offense in a reactionary fashion. The question then becomes, can things be any different in 2025? Armstead retired and is likely to be replaced by 2024 second-round pick Patrick Paul, who underwhelmed as a rookie but shows flashes of promise. The Dolphins invested in the interior with the selection of Jonah Savaiinaea and the addition of free agent guard James Daniels, giving at least some promise for things to turn around. Situational play-calling tendencies also need to improve, as whatever McDaniel did last season to band-aid the situation clearly did not work. I tend to side on the bullish case with the Dolphins this season (as evidenced by my best ball exposure, for those that were following along this offseason), but I would be remiss in not stating the clear fact that this team’s season could either go really, really well, or extremely poorly.
Achane missed a couple weeks in camp with a calf injury, but all reports indicate he will be ready to rock come Week 1. What that means as far as how healthy he really is or how effective he will be is anyone’s guess, but he should be out there on the field against the Colts. Jaylen Wright is another story, and he appears likely to miss the first few weeks of the season due to a leg injury. That should pave the way for rookie sixth-round running back Ollie Gordon to make an impact right away, likely as a change-of-pace back plus the potential for the goal-line role considering his 6’1”, 225-pound frame. The Colts allowed just 1.71 yards before contact per attempt a season ago and still have one of the better front sevens in the league, making this a matchup that is a poor one on paper.
Anarumo has been a mixed bag with respect to two-high utilization rates over the previous four seasons. The “mad scientist” tailors his defense to the opponent, making it one of the more adaptable defenses in the league. But that same organized chaos can be exploited, as we started to see towards the tail end of his career in Cincinnati. Assignments and responsibilities change weekly, requiring all players to be on the same page to be effective. This will be an interesting chess match between one of the more forward-thinking offensive minds and one of the more forward-thinking defensive minds in the league. Aerial production should clearly funnel primarily through Hill and Waddle, with Washington on hand in the slot and Waller on hand for whatever he has left in the tank (I don’t think it’s much, but we shall see). Achane also remains an integral piece of the passing offense and should see consistent volume through the air. If I were devising a plan to attack Anarumo’s defense, I would keep things as unpredictable as possible and utilize extreme rates of pre-snap motion, layering in digs, drags, rubs, sluggos, and whips to get players in the soft spots in the second level. There’s really no way of knowing what’s going on between McDaniel’s ears, but Hill, Achane, Waddle and the rest of the supporting cast could cause fits for Anarumo with the speed they have.
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