Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- The structure of the Miami offense has not fundamentally changed in the absence of Tyreek Hill. What has changed is a greater emphasis on 12-personnel with the injection of Darren Waller.
- On that note, Waller is not functioning like a true tight end in this offense, playing only 22.2% of his snaps inline.
- TE David Njoku (knee) did not practice Wednesday or Thursday and appears to be trending towards an absence.
- The same can be said of OT Jack Conklin (concussion).
- This is a potential weather game in Week 7 – check back later in the week for a clearer picture on how impactful that might be.
JM’S JOURNAL ::
Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.
How MIAMI Will Try To Win ::
Tua Tagovailoa in Weeks 1-4, with Hill in the lineup: 6.4-yard aDOT, 8.8% deep-throw rate, 6.60 yards per attempt, 69.3% completion rate. Tua in Week 5-6, without Hill in the lineup: 7.3-yard aDOT, 8.8% deep-throw rate, 6.78 yards per attempt, 70.6% completion rate. The Dolphins have one spike pass rate over expectation (PROE) game this season, which came in a Week 5 loss to the Panthers. That is interesting to me, because the Panthers have faced the highest rush rate over expectation (RROE) of any team in the league this season. The Dolphins averaged 20.75 points per game in the four games with Hill on the field and 25.5 in the two games without him. If we remove the team’s Week 1 flop against the Colts, this team averaged 25.0 points per game with Hill. All of that to highlight the fact that the structure of this team has not materially changed in the absence of Hill after some (most? Me?) thought it would for the remainder of the season. The team continues to operate via elevated rates of 21-personnel through increased snap rates from fullback Alec Ingold, now adding additional rates of 12-personnel with the injection of Waller into the lineup (which would be the primary structural change in the offense without Hill). That said, Waller is functioning more like a mismatch receiver than he is a tight end in the current state of the roster, playing only 22.2% of his snaps inline (38.1% wide and 39.7% slot). Taking a little liberty with splits here, but if we remove their Week 1 blowout loss in which they managed only eight points, this team is averaging 25.2 points per game while scoring 21 or more in all five games. The problem isn’t their offense, as it was last season; the problem is a defense allowing 389.3 yards (30th) and 29.0 points (29th) per game.
De’Von Achane has played 82.4% of the team’s offensive snaps this season. That is, quite frankly, absurd. Change-of-pace back Ollie Gordon has played 24-26% of the offensive snaps in four of five games, giving us tight workload projection for Achane each time he takes the field. Taking away the team’s Week 1 blowout loss, Achane has seen exactly 21 or 22 opportunities in all but one game (17 against the Panthers). Achane has also now scored six touchdowns in as many games, with Week 6 serving as the first game in which he managed multiple scores, and the first game in which he went over 100 yards on the ground (hit 99 against the Jets). The problem here is twofold: (1) His path to more than 22 opportunities is somewhat thin, and (2) The matchup is atrocious. The Browns lead the league in yards allowed per carry (3.1) while also allowing the fewest yards before contact per attempt (1.10). That effectively makes the path to a GPP-worthy ceiling flow directly through multiple scores and elite pass-game usage. That is very much within his range of outcomes here, it simply gives you fewer outs in a GPP setting.
Crash the leaderboards
PFP the OWS pennant
Another issue within that setup is a Browns defense that has funneled only 32 targets and ceded the fourth-fewest yards to the position through the air. The Browns also remain an extremely aggressive defense, playing man at the third-highest frequency (39.8%) while generating pressure at a solid 20.9% frequency (12th). Tua also remains one of the most pressure-sensitive quarterbacks in the league, having completed just 51.1% of his passes with a 48.3 QBR and 2-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio on 63 pressured dropbacks this season. His aDOT on those throws is 6.2 yards with a low 6.7% deep-throw rate. An interesting aspect of this matchup on paper is the low man-coverage rates the Dolphins have seen this season (17.5%, more than only the Cardinals, Jaguars, and 49ers). I expect them to see the most man they have seen of any game this season here, and they are currently averaging the second-most fantasy points per dropback (FP/DB) against man (small sample and most of that came with Hill on the field). That doesn’t necessarily make this a great spot through the air, but it was eye-opening, nonetheless. Finally, I expect Jaylen Waddle to see a good deal of Denzel Ward in isolation, a matchup Ward has the upper hand in.
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