XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
It’s already Week 3, and this season is flying by. We start off the week with the Dolphins visiting the Bills for a big 49.5 total game in which Buffalo is favored by 11.5 or 12.5, depending on where you look. The Dolphins defense has looked pretty atrocious to start the season, while the Bills have scored 30 and 41 points in their first two games, which is driving the high total in this one.
INJURY UPDATE: After writing this article, Jaylen Waddle showed up on the injury report as questionable. Looks like he’s likely to play, but if he misses or is at all limited, it adds more weight to the idea of Achane being used more out wide with Wright also on the field at the same time. It would also be a big boost to Washington and Westbrook-Ikhine.
BUFFALO
We’ll start with the Bills, where James Cook has had a red-hot start to the season, scoring 3 touchdowns and racking up 176 rushing yards and a 6/61 line through the air. Not bad for two games. What’s more important is what while Cook’s snap counts are still modest (keep in mind the Bills pulled their starters last game as they blow out the Jets), his share of rushing work is excellent – he saw 13 of 16 RB carries in Week 1 and 21 of 32 in Week 2 (and keep in mind that Week 2 had some garbage time in which Ray Davis got some extra carries). The knock against Cook has always been a combination of volume and Josh Allen vulturing touchdowns. Those concerns are still valid (Josh Allen has 5 carries inside the 5-yard line compared to just three for Cook), but Cook getting to 21 carries in an easy win would be awfully nice for his value if it turns out to be a trend. Will it? I don’t know – given what we’ve seen from Buffalo for years, I’d bet against it – but I could be wrong. What we do know is that Cook’s ceiling is excellent, even with modest volume, because of how good an offense Buffalo has. We know the matchup is excellent against a mediocre Dolphins D (their strength is their line but “strength” is just in comparative terms, as so far they have not been very good against the run). Behind Cook, Ty Johnson has been in a very modest role to start the season with just 7 touches in two games, but I expect better things are coming for him, and he’s a viable punt play (with no real floor). Ray Davis is unlikely to see much work unless the game blows out, but with the Bills being huge home favorites, he deserves to be in onslaught player pools. Otherwise, you’re just hoping for a lucky TD.
Showdown Ownership Projections!
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In the passing game, the Bills are the absolute worst. One week after Keon Coleman played 88% of the snaps and looked like he might be the new WR1, he only played 51% of the snaps (again, everyone played fewer than normal, but no WR going over 51% is more like the Bills of old, with them spreading things around from the start). Look, when it comes to Bills pass catchers, your guess is really as good as mine. Coleman, Khalil Shakir, and Josh Palmer should be the main guys, but Elijah Moore and Tyrell Shavers are going to play more than anyone (including Bills fans) wants to see. Coleman’s the best bet here as a talented second-year receiver who is leading the team in targets so far, performed well in Week 1, and could well take a step forward this season, but “best” is still fairly fragile. At just $6,800, he’s a risk worth taking in my opinion. Shakir is fine – his per-target upside is modest, so he usually needs volume or a score to pay off – he’s better in builds based around competitive games, and there isn’t really anything that makes him stand out to me beyond just being attached to a good offense. Palmer is interesting as he’s priced around the kickers and won’t project especially well (that price range is often a wasteland for skill position players; they get lost among the kickers and their ownership is low), but he’s somewhat quietly second on the team in targets while also leading in yards per reception. Good volume plus deep targets = boom potential once things connect, and this Miami secondary is pretty darn bad. Moore and Shavers should be in player pools, but both are thin.
At tight end, Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox are still splitting time (somewhat inexplicably) with Knox, oddly, leading the way. They’re basically just eating each other’s ceiling. Kincaid has 10 targets to Knox’s 7 and is also a much better pass catcher. He’s clearly the stronger play of the two, but Knox is cheap enough to be a viable punt, as he’s in the “if he catches 1 or 2 passes and finds the end zone, he’ll probably be optimal” price range. TE3 Jackson Hawes isn’t likely to play a ton in a competitive game, but he’s caught a pass in both games, he’s $600, and thus he can also be viewed as a punt.
Eight viable pass catchers, not including running backs? Cool, thanks, Buffalo. Maybe just play your best players more. My overall favorites in order are Coleman, Palmer, and Kincaid, with the rest just being guys I’d mix and match into builds.
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