Game Overview ::
By Hilow >>
- The Cowboys rank 30th in missed tackles while allowing the second most points per game this season.
- The Jets rank 32nd in missed tackles while allowing the fifth most points per game this season.
- The Cowboys are both generating chunk plays and giving up chunk plays this season (more on this below), which has been the perfect recipe for elite game environments through four weeks.
- RB Braelon Allen hit the IR for the Jets, and they signed veteran journeyman Kahlil Herbert this week.
- The Cowboys were missing three offensive linemen in practice on Wednesday, in addition to change of pace back Miles Sanders.
- Jake Ferguson handily leads the league with 16.2 XFP/G, which jumps to 17.2 in the previous two games without CeeDee Lamb. That’s a ridiculous 28.4% higher than second-ranked Trey McBride’s 13.4 XFP/G.
- One final note of caution in an otherwise sparkling setup – the Cowboys have had drastic home-road splits the previous two seasons and have managed just 17 PPG on the road while scoring 40 points in each of their home games this year.
JM’S JOURNAL ::
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How dallas Will Try To Win ::
The Cowboys rank 32nd in total pass yards allowed through four games (1,237, or 309.25 per game), with a lowly 3.3% sack rate (29th), the sixth deepest aDOT allowed (8.8), the highest deep throw rate allowed (15.6%), the most yards per attempt allowed (9.16), and the third highest completion rate allowed (73.3%) – all while generating pressure at an above average 25.7% clip. The defensive struggles have really forced their hand on offense, leading to a ninth-ranked PROE and a league-leading 68.3 plays per game. That is accompanied by a below average 29:19 average time of possession (22nd) and a league-leading 404.3 average yards per game of total offense, meaning they are both generating chunk plays and giving up chunk plays. Talk about a perfect storm for game environments that jump off the rails! From an offensive structure standpoint, the threat of a legitimate run game (I never thought I would be saying this, but thanks to Javonte Williams and an offensive line blocking to 2.09 yards before contact per attempt) has forced their opponents to deploy single-high alignments at an above average 48.9% clip against the Cowboys this year, while they are generating a robust 0.49 FP/DB against the primary alignment.
Williams has generated an explosive run on only 4.8% of his carries this season, with the biggest benefit of his services coming via a moderately low 36.5% stuff rate. He has been consistently gaining yards for the Cowboys, which keeps them from getting behind the sticks at an above average rate. He isn’t setting the world on fire while generating only 0.11 missed tackles per attempt, but his contact balance has been on full display while generating 3.05 yards after contact per attempt. 61.5% of his total yards on the ground this season have come after contact with 1.90 yards before contact per attempt. That’s effectively a similar rushing profile to De’Von Achane (3.08 YAC/Att and 1.84 YBC/Att) but with a much lower stuff rate (46.0% for Achane), for some additional context. Williams’ 18.3 XFP/G ranks fourth in the league behind Christian McCaffrey, Jonathan Taylor, and Josh Jacobs, while his 19.4 FP/G ranks sixth behind McCaffrey, James Cook, Taylor, Bijan Robinson, and Jahmyr Gibbs. Not too shabby company, for real. He gets a Jets defense allowing middling marks against the run, including 4.1 yards per carry (15th), 2.27 yards after contact per attempt (19th), and 0.15 missed tackles per attempt (16th). The biggest issue I see here is the presence of three starting offensive linemen on the first injury report this week, as all of Tyler Guyton, Tyler Smith, and Tyler Booker (all the Tylers, man) missed practice Wednesday. Finally, change of pace back Miles Sanders did not practice on Wednesday with knee and ankle injuries.
Tight end Jake Ferguson had a ridiculous 0.34 TPRR and 17.2 XFP/G in the previous two games without CeeDee Lamb, and leads the league at the tight end position with 16.2 XFP/G over the course of the full season (Trey McBride is second with 13.4). For those keeping track at home, his XFP/G over the previous two weeks is a ridiculous 28.4% higher than McBride’s this year. His 0.34 TPRR rate the previous two weeks would also handily lead the league at the position, of tight ends to run more than 35 routes. The Jets rank in the middle of the pack with 13.0 DK points allowed per game to tight ends (14th most), largely due to the way their defense is structured. I expect we might see a Sauce Gardner shadow on George Pickens this week considering the state of the Dallas pass-catching corps behind the top two options, making this a potential blowup spot for Ferguson. The Jets have also given it up from single-high alignments (third most FP/DB allowed from single-high this season at 0.64) and are in single-high at a non-negligible 48.0% clip, against which Pickens has thrived to the tune of 2.59 YPRR, a team-leading 36.9% air yards share, 0.73 FP/RR, and robust 0.56 XFP/RR this season. Only Puka Nacua, Xavier Worthy, Amon-Ra St. Brown, DeAndre Hopkins (small sample), and Adonai Mitchell (small Sample) have averaged more FP/RR against single-high than Pickens this season.
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