Game Overview ::
By Mike johnson >>
- Both of these teams have been eliminated from the playoffs.
- This is the second matchup between these two teams, with Dallas winning the first game 44-22 over two months ago.
- These are two of the worst pass defenses in the NFL.
- Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott is in contention to lead the league in passing yards.
- Washington will have 39-year old veteran Josh Johnson starting at quarterback for them this week due to the status of their season and injuries to Jayden Daniels and Marcus Mariota.
How dallas Will Try To Win ::
Credit to the Cowboys for their conviction in themselves, trying to turn around their season with aggressive moves at the trade deadline, but things ended in a relatively predictable way as their holes on the roster, tough schedule, and slim margin for error have resulted in their being eliminated from playoff contention with two weeks left in the season. Technically, they had an extremely thin chance to sneak in entering last week, but a 34-17 home loss to the Chargers in Week 16 took care of that. The Cowboys now end the year with consecutive divisional games against the 4-11 Commanders and 2-13 Giants, which gives them a strong chance to end the season with a .500 record in head coach Brian Schottenheimer’s debut season in charge. “Breaking even” would be an important landmark for Schottenheimer and would somewhat save the pride of Jerry Jones, while Schottenheimer went on record this week to say the Cowboys would be full steam ahead in the season’s final two weeks. They don’t own their top draft picks this season anyway, so there is no real benefit to holding back.
Washington’s defense is a mess, and injuries continue to mount for them, making them a perfect target for Dallas to produce a feel-good performance. Dallas is actually operating a relatively balanced offense and has a slightly negative pass rate relative to expectation this season. That being said, this is a spot where it would not be surprising to see them really open things up. Washington has a subpar run defense, but it is truly deficient in pass defense. The Commanders rank 30th in pass defense DVOA and PFF coverage grade, while struggling to get pressure despite ranking near the top of the league in blitz rate, as head coach Dan Quinn loves being aggressive in his defensive play calling. Washington mixes up their man and zone coverage looks, but Dak Prescott is adept at identifying things pre-snap and is likely to exploit them through the air regardless of what they throw at him. Dallas may be without starting tackle Tyler Guyton due to an ankle injury, but they are still strong enough up front, and Prescott controls the line of scrimmage well enough to handle an unimposing Washington front.
The Cowboys can’t make the playoffs, but they can still do some special things in the 2025 season. Perhaps the main thing they can accomplish is having Prescott lead the league in passing yards, as he is currently neck and neck with Matthew Stafford in that category, with 4,175 yards. Given his weapons and the remaining matchups, it wouldn’t be shocking for Prescott to take it down and even potentially chase the 5,000-yard mark. George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb are obviously the main targets and seem to alternate with huge weeks, while Ryan Flournoy has emerged as a legitimately talented third receiver to complement them. Tight end Jake Ferguson and the team’s running backs are also involved in the short areas of the field, while WR Kavontae Turpin has seen between three and six opportunities in each of the last five games in a gadget role that tries to get him in space and add a dimension for defenses to think about. Flournoy missed some time in Sunday’s game with a knee issue, was limited in practice Monday, and then missed Tuesday’s practice, which leaves his status in doubt for this week. In any regard, Lamb and Pickens should be the obvious primary targets for Dak in a game where he should be throwing aggressively against a pass defense that has made J.J. McCarthy and Jaxson Dart look like good passers in recent weeks.
The Cowboys won’t abandon their running game, as they should have some level of success in that regard as well, and many of their passing concepts work best off play action and keeping defenses honest. Javonte Williams has had a terrific season, but has seen his two lowest snap rates and touch counts of the season in the last two weeks. Dallas is increasing the usage of Malik Davis, who has at least three touches in six straight games since their Week 10 bye, broke off a long touchdown run in their Thanksgiving game, and had his two highest usage games of his career the last two weeks. Williams was on a one-year contract and has played very well this year in his role, while he is now battling some injuries and just naturally may be worn down from the rigors of an NFL season. It would make sense if this evolves into more of an even timeshare the last two weeks of the year, especially on a short week like this, as Dallas may look to see what they have in Davis and limit the toll on Williams’ body.
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