Game Overview ::
By >> Mike johnson
- Dallas has allowed 22 or more points in every game this season, while Denver has scored at least 20 points in all but one game.
- The Broncos defense has struggled against more efficient offenses while picking on the weaker teams they have faced.
- Denver’s use of their secondary, particularly reigning defensive player of the year Patrick Surtain II, will have a huge impact on how this game plays out.
- Cowboys QB Dak Prescott has a passer rating of 124 or higher in each of his last four games.
- This is one of only two games on this week’s main slate between two teams with a .500 record or better.
JM’S JOURNAL ::
Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.
How dallas Will Try To Win ::
The perception around the Cowboys has continuously evolved over the course of the season and a team that many people expected to struggle to compete enters Week 8 with a 3-3-1 record thanks to an elite offense and a defense that has performed very well relative to their on-paper talent level. The Cowboys three wins have come against teams with losing records, their three losses came against teams with winning records, and they played the Packers to a 40-40 tie. The summary of this is that the Cowboys offense has played consistently well this season, while their defense has been “good enough” for them to beat weaker opponents. This week traveling to Denver to face a very good defense and an offense that has underachieved so far this season, the Cowboys will need their defense to give them a chance and they will need another outstanding performance from their offense.
Dallas has enjoyed a terrific season from QB Dak Prescott as he has taken his game to another level this season. Part of that elite play has to do with having the best receiving duo of his career in George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb, but Dak continued playing at an incredibly high level even when Lamb was sidelined for three and a half weeks. Dak has had a passer rating over 120 in each of the last four games. This week the Denver defense presents an interesting challenge for the Cowboys and how Denver decides to try to handle them will play a huge role in what Dallas does offensively. The Broncos play the 4th highest rate of man coverage and have an elite cornerback in defending Defensive Player of the Year, Patrick Surtain II. Surtain is often used in shadow coverage and in theory the Broncos would be most likely to put him on Lamb, which would leave Pickens in the coverage of Riley Moss, who struggled last season but has played better in 2025. However, Dak is playing at such a high level and Pickens is so talented that this is a matchup they would surely look to exploit. The other end of that is if they decide not to shadow Lamb, allowing Surtain to cover Pickens on the perimeter, or if they were to play more zone as they did in the second half against the Eagles. This option would leave Lamb free to do his damage as he moves all over the field and runs a diverse route tree. Lamb has played in three full games and has at least 110 receiving yards in each of them. Tight end Jake Ferguson has been terrific for fantasy purposes this season, but has surpassed 49 receiving yards in only two of seven games. Those games were a wild Week 2 shootout with the Giants where Dak threw the ball 52 times and then in Week 3 when Lamb left the game early and Dallas trailed by multiple scores for basically the entire game. Ferguson is a primary red zone target, but this offense revolves primarily around Lamb and Pickens.
The Broncos secondary has a very strong reputation that they have earned, but the reality is that Dallas should still be able to move the ball through their two elite talents at wide receiver. Dallas uses pre-snap motion at one of the highest rates in the league and Prescott is terrific at identifying coverages and blitzes. Whatever coverages Denver elects to use, expect Dak to identify them and attack whatever the weak point is. The Cowboys have a relatively neutral pass rate over expectation and tries to stay balanced, but the Broncos allow only 3.8 yards per carry and are very strong up front. Most of the Cowboys rushing success this year has come at the expense of struggling defenses. We should expect Dallas to attempt to stay balanced early in this game, but struggle to get much going on the ground. They likely won’t be completely stifled, but the majority of their offense will need to be generated through the air.
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