Cowboys (

25.75) at
Bears (

24.25)

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott has been playing at a very high level through two weeks, controlling the game with his pre-snap reads and making elite throws.
• The Dallas backfield continues to belong to Javonte Williams, while Miles Sanders offers occasional breathers and rookie Jaydon Blue has yet to be active for a game.
• Both teams have pass defenses that were absolutely torched in Week 2, while this profiles as the best matchup so far this season for both passing offenses.
• Chicago’s offense continues to struggle to consistently move the ball in large part due to their lack of a running game.
• Bears head coach Ben Johnson said this week that he was going to shake things up and potentially alter his team’s personnel usage.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How dallas Will Try To Win ::

Through two weeks, Dallas has a negative pass rush over expectation (-1.9), but rank 10th in raw pass rate. Their running game has been better than most expected, with Javonte Williams leading the way and their offensive line ranking 10th in the league at 5.21 adjusted line yards per carry. In the passing game, things continue to primarily flow through CeeDee Lamb, who has seen double digit targets in both games this season. George Pickens and tight end Jake Ferguson play large supporting roles for the offense, while Kavontae Turpin continues to emerge as a threat for Dallas and is being utilized in the passing game and on some designed rushing attempts. 

Quarterback Dak Prescott is playing at an incredible level, making several big time throws in each of the first two weeks and making plays in high leverage situations. Dak was terrific in the season opening loss to the Eagles, but his numbers didn’t show it in the box score due to some drops by Lamb and the overall nature of the matchup and game environment. Then, against the Giants, Dak really exploded but his numbers were overshadowed by the massive performance by Russell Wilson and the fact that kicker Brandon Aubrey made four field goals and his backfield had two of the touchdowns. Dak completed 73% of his passes, however, and played the Giants secondary like a symphony throughout the game. Dak showcased his veteran savvy and elite offensive mind by making checks at the line and picking apart the New York secondary before the ball was even snapped. This combination of pre- and post-snap quarterbacking was a sight to behold and the Cowboys needed every bit of it to come out with a win.

This week, Dallas gets arguably their best matchup of the season against a Bears team that is not getting much pressure and just got torched by Jared Goff and the Lions. Chicago’s star cornerback, Jaylon Johnson, aggravated a groin injury in Week 2 and is likely to miss some time. The Cowboys should have success with the creative ways they use Lamb, while also opening some things up for their other weapons. The Cowboys offensive line ranks 8th in adjusted line yards per carry and while they are not built to run the ball at the level Detroit did, they should have enough success to complement the passing game. The one element Dallas has not been able to unlock so far this season has been explosive downfield passes, but this week against this Bears secondary they are likely to connect on a couple of deep shots as Dak should have plenty of time to throw and their running game should provide enough of a threat to make their play action concepts more effective.

How chicago Will Try To Win ::

Bears head coach Ben Johnson has not minced words following Chicago’s embarrassing loss at the hands of his former employer, calling out the team’s practice habits and on-field effort and saying that positions and playing time would be re-evaluated in the aftermath. The most obvious candidates for increased roles are rookie TE Colston Loveland (10th overall) and WR Luther Burden III (39th overall), who have barely contributed in the box score and played modest snaps through two weeks. 

Rookie seventh round pick Kyle Monangai could also see an increased role after D’Andre Swift had another ineffective game. The Bears lead the NFL in yards before contact per rush attempt (1.89), yet are 31st in rush EPA (expected points added) and 32nd in rushing success rate. What those numbers mean is that the team’s improved offensive line is blocking well, but Swift is operating as essentially the least efficient running back you can imagine. This shouldn’t be considered a surprise, as Swift has never been a great between the tackles runner and has poor vision and decision making in those settings. He is most effectively used as an explosive back who you scheme the ball to in space. Fundamentally, this Bears offense is going to struggle to consistently move the ball until they can get their running game operating at least at a level close to average.

As for the passing game, Caleb Williams has looked rough to start the season and made his share of mistakes. However, he has played two of the more aggressive blitzing defenses in the league and his erratic play and decision making has been in large part caused by those opponents. This week is just what the doctor ordered with a matchup against a Dallas defense that just let Russell Wilson have a career game a week after nearly being benched. The Cowboys secondary was torched all game and was especially vulnerable in the slot where nickel corner Reddy Steward was beaten like a drum last week and the team’s zone concepts were hammered with vertical routes up the seam by the Giants. As a coach, the best time to make a personnel change is in a spot where the players you are giving new opportunity to will have success. This profiles as such a spot where Johnson could theoretically make Loveland and Burden a priority early in the game, especially on early scripted plays where Chicago has had their most success to start the year. Primary receivers Rome Odunze, who is in the midst of a second year breakout, and DJ Moore each line up in the slot on about one-third of their snaps and each should have opportunities to cook the Dallas secondary. Chicago currently has a negative pass rate to expectation, but given their run games ineffectiveness and how good this matchup is through the air we should expect an aggressive passing attack from the outset of this one.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

This game has all the makings of a back-and-forth shootout, it is just a matter of how we get there. Each offense has a lot of playmakers and well-designed schemes and route concepts, while both pass defenses are reeling. Dallas is playing at the fourth fastest tempo in the league and Ben Johnson’s teams historically like to push the pace. Dak Prescott is a wizard at the line of scrimmage, while Johnson’s play calling and now having two weeks of film on this Dallas defense makes it highly likely that he has his team ready to pounce and have their best offensive game of the season here. Elevated pass rates, mediocre running games, defenses who fail to pressure the quarterback, and secondaries with glaring holes all combine to make this a game with many paths to being must-watch TV on Sunday afternoon. Get your popcorn ready.

DFS+ Interpretation ::