Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- Head coach Dan Quinn already ruled out QB Jayden Daniels (elbow) for Week 15.
- RB Chris Rodriguez (groin) did not practice on Wednesday, potentially forcing the Commanders into a two-headed timeshare between Jacory Croskey-Merritt and Jeremy McNichols.
- The glue of the Washington defense, Bobby Wagner, is likely looking at an absence this week.
- TE Zach Ertz is done for the season after suffering his second torn ACL in Week 14. His career could be over after playing 2025 on a one-year deal.
- RB Tyrone Tracy returned to a full practice on Wednesday, out of the team’s Week 14 bye.
- “Washington backfield” is a situation worth monitoring this week – the matchup demands attention, the offense has clear run-leaning tendencies, and the timeshare could be moving from three-headed to two-headed.
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How washington Will Try To Win ::
Quarterback Marcus Mariota has started six games for the Commanders this season. In those games, the team has averaged 30 pass attempts per game with a well below average -4.2% PROE. For comparison, that value would rank 30th in the league over the course of the full season. Furthermore, those values are propped up by a 50-attempt game against the Broncos in Week 13, where the team lost by one point. Which is to say, this appears to be a run-first team that becomes a run-heavy team with Mariota under center. Bolstering their chances of continuing with that stance deeper into the game this week is an opponent that struggles to defend the run, in a game with a low 2.5-point spread. One final note is that the Commanders ran 58 offensive plays or fewer in Mariota’s first four starts before 67 in a three-point loss to the Dolphins and 90 (!!!) in a one-point loss to the Broncos.
The potential absence of Chris Rodriguez is likely a bigger deal to the state of the slate than most will realize, and it all starts with the matchup. The Giants have allowed the second most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields (while facing 50 fewer rush attempts than the Bengals, who are the worst in the league against the position), ceded 16 total touchdowns to the position, are dead last in the league in yards allowed per carry (5.8, a ridiculous 11.6% higher than the Bengals), and have ceded the highest explosive run rate at a robust 9.3%. Furthermore, over 63% of Washington’s rush attempts come behind man/gap concepts in Kliff Kingsbury’s horizontally spread offense, and the Giants are allowing a borderline ridiculous (no, scratch that, completely ridiculous) 6.98 yards per carry against man/gap concepts this season. Jacory Croskey-Merritt has been effectively left for dead in fantasy circles after Rodriguez took over lead back duties, but the underlying metrics for both backs are similar in almost every aspect except that Bill has lost two fumbles. The Commanders rank 11th in the league with 28.0 rush attempts per game, the spread is only 2.5 points, and we could be getting a more condensed backfield, should Rodriguez miss. Pay close attention to this situation this week.
I honestly would have loved to see Terry McLaurin’s snap rate jump more than 11% in his second game back after playing on 51% of the team’s offensive snaps in Week 13, which was the first game he finished since Week 2. That said, there is likely some imbalance there as the team was shutout in Week 14, leading to a lowly 52% snap rate for Deebo Samuel as well (about 20-30% lower than his norm). Which is to say, there is the potential for McLaurin to return to an 80-85% snap rate against the Giants, and there is also the potential for the team to be bringing him along slowly after botching his attempted return in Week 8 when he aggravated the injury, leading to three additional missed contests. The Giants continue to be near the league lead in man coverage rates (third at 39.2%), and McLaurin has seen a 0.32 TPRR against man in 2025 after accounting for a 36.1% air yards share against man in 2024. Furthermore, the injury to Zach Ertz likely forces the Commanders into elevated rates of 11-personnel, which should benefit all of McLaurin, Deebo Samuel, and Noah Brown this week. We saw very little 12-personnel used when John Bates missed two games earlier in the season. The release of Chris Moore leaves Jaylin Lane and Treylon Burks as the package receivers, both likely to rotate through in modest roles.
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