GAME OVERVIEW ::
BY HILOW >>
- The Colts have scored points on all but two offensive drives this season, both of which were turnovers on downs. They have zero turnovers and zero punts through two games.
- The injury report for this game is lengthy.
- Colts WR Josh Downs missed practice Wednesday with an ankle injury and TE Tyler Warren missed with a toe injury.
- Titans OT JC Latham (hip), CB L’Jarius Sneed (back), and OG Kevin Zietler (bicep) all missed practice Wednesday. NT T’Vondre Sweat (ankle) was limited.
- It isn’t the likeliest scenario, but this game carries clear paths to upside. It is likely up to the Titans to drive the game environment, but it is well within the range of outcomes here.
- Jonathan Taylor has been a true workhorse this season and he could see his pass-game involvement tick up if Warren misses. He has been in a route at a solid 62.0% frequency this season.
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HOW indianapolis WILL TRY TO WIN ::
The Daniel Jones-led Colts have put points on the board on all but two offensive possessions through two games, both of which were failed fourth-down conversions against the Broncos. They have yet to punt and have yet to commit a turnover. This team reminds me a lot of the 2024 Saints to start the season with how efficient they have been. Teams will eventually adjust and force the Colts to alter some things, but the structure of the offense thus far has been impressive. That shouldn’t come as a total shock considering Shane Steichen remains one of the top offensive minds in the league, but I’m not sure anyone expected them to be this good.
The matchup is solid for the Colts all around, but especially so on the ground and through the wide receivers. The Titans are dealing with a slew of injuries including to veteran nose tackle Sweat. Sweat missed the team’s Week 2 loss with an ankle injury but was able to get in a limited session Wednesday. The Colts have blocked to a fifth-ranked 2.59 yards before contact per attempt while the Titans have allowed a bloated 2.07 yards before contact per attempt, making this a great spot on paper for Taylor. Taylor leads the league in carries (43), ranks second in red-zone opportunities (12, with one goal line), ranks first in evaded tackles (22), and is coming off a game in which he played a ridiculous 93% of the offensive snaps. The ways of the workhorse back are quickly disappearing in today’s game, making Taylor somewhat of a dying breed. Jones has 13 carries through two games and has scored three times from one yard out. That touchdown rate is equal parts unsustainable as it is impressive, adding to his weekly range of outcomes.
The Colts could get a solid boost through the air should veteran lockdown corner Sneed miss. Sneed missed practice Wednesday with a back injury and appears to be legitimately questionable, as things currently stand. That’s good news for Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce, and potentially Adonai Mitchell after Downs missed practice Wednesday with an ankle injury. We saw Mitchell step into whatever role was missing in the offense multiple times in 2024, meaning we should expect Pittman and Pierce to remain in their normal roles while Mitchell steps into the slot role for the Colts, should Downs miss. Warren’s potential absence means much more to the offense considering his heavy involvement through his first two games. Warren has held a solid 24.5% first-read target rate, 0.29 targets per route run (TPRR), and 2.82 yards per route run (YPRR) as a primary cog of the offense, something that would be more difficult to make up for without significant alterations to the structure of the offense. Taylor has been in a route at a solid 62.0% frequency, making him my bet to make up for some of the short-area work that Warren has been seeing should the rookie miss.
HOW tennessee WILL TRY TO WIN ::
The Titans have been relatively reserved on the offensive side of the ball through two games, with heavy rush rates on early downs and a passing game built off of play action. The problem is their run game has been largely ineffective, which continues to place them in long down-and-distance situations where play action is less effective. I would love to see this offense become more balanced on early downs where their play action can be more effective. Time will tell if Brian Callahan eventually opens things up in that way, but it might take some time. The Titans have an early Week 5 bye, so maybe it happens in Week 6. As things currently stand, Callahan is not doing his rookie quarterback any favors. It appears to me that Callahan is trying to ease him into his professional career when, again, to me, Cam Ward is the most pro-ready quarterback to come out of college in the previous five seasons. I don’t know what is going on behind the scenes or what Callahan has seen from his signal-caller during camp, the preseason, and practice thus far, but that is just my read on the situation based on what I have seen on film, from the media, and from my study on Ward this offseason. That is also something that could change in an instant, keeping the tantalizing upside within reach for this team. For those that were around with us this offseason, I was extremely high on this offense, high on Ward, and high on rookie wide receiver Elic Ayomanor. It’s coming, y’all, seems to just be a matter of time and changing offensive tendencies.
Tony Pollard has operated as a true workhorse back in the absence of Tyjae Spears, as expected. That’s about where the positives end for Pollard. The Titans have been overly predictable in their play-calling tendencies and their offensive line has not performed well, blocking to just 1.37 yards before contact per attempt. Pollard has zero explosive runs in two games, has not seen a carry inside the five (Julius Chestnut has one), has forced only three missed tackles on 38 carries (0.08 MTF/ATT), and has accounted for just 10.8 XFP/G. Pollard will likely go the way the offense goes, which is a tough sell in its current state. Chestnut, although he has the only carry for the Titans inside the five this season, has played just 13 total offensive snaps and is not viable in fantasy. The matchup is also poor on paper after the Colts held the Dolphins and Broncos to just 1.71 yards before contact per attempt, good for seventh in the league through two weeks. The Colts have struggled to bring runners down, yielding 5.4 yards per carry, but the poor situational tendencies of the Tennessee offense does them no favors here. Furthering the case for downside is the presence of both Latham (hip) and Zietler (bicep) on the team’s first injury report of the week, with both missing practice Wednesday.
Callahan made good on his promise to get rookie slot man Chimere Dike more work in Week 2, which came at the direct expense of veteran Tyler Lockett. Calvin Ridley remain the clear alpha through the air, flanked by standout rookie Ayomanor on the perimeter. Van Jefferson got beat out by the rookie this preseason and has played only 24 total offensive snaps through two games. Chigoziem Okonkwo is the primary pass-catching tight end, ceding some blocking work to Gunnar Helm. Ridley, Ayomanor, and Okonkwo are the only near every-down pass catchers, with Lockett, Dike, Jefferson, and Helm mixing in for situational roles. The Colts appear set to get back Charvarius Ward after he missed Week 2 with a concussion, which should send Kenny Moore back to nickel and provide a solid boost to the Indianapolis defense. It’s not the best matchup through the air against Lou Anarumo’s game-plan-specific defense, but volume is likeliest to settle on Ridley, Ayomanor, and Okonkwo.
LIKELIEST GAME FLOW ::
The current state of each team tells the story of the Colts asserting dominance over the game environment early on, allowing them to remain run-balanced while stringing together drives and dominating the time-of-possession battle. The clearest path for that to change would be injected by the Titans and their reserved play-calling tendencies exhibited through two games, something that could send the game into the upper echelon of scoring on the week. We should expect the Colts to find offensive success here regardless, leaving it up to the Titans to truly push the game environment. Should we see Callahan remove the training wheels on his young quarterback and start leaning into play action on early downs more, this one could turn into something truly special. That isn’t the likeliest scenario, but there are clear paths to upside from this game.
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