Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- The Colts face the highest rush rate over expectation (RROE) in the league and Texans RB Joe Mixon ranks eighth in opportunity share in healthy games this season (73.4%), averaging 19.3 carries and 3.5 targets per game.
- Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell dominate first-read target rate (34.4% and 37.5%, respectively) and targets per route run (27% and 24%, respectively) without Collins, but Diggs has amassed just 100 yards through the air while Dell has accounted for only 57 yards in the two games without Collins this season.
- The Texans have transitioned their offense to heavy 12-personnel utilization without Collins, averaging a 49% 12-personnel utilization rate the previous two games.
- The Colts still rank dead last in average time of possession (26:12) and have struggled to maintain drives with Anthony Richardson under center. They now face a Texans defense that structurally forces opponents to drive the field against them.
- The Texans have numerous high-profile injuries in their defense, with Azeez Al-Shaair, Will Anderson, Henry To’oTo’o, and Jimmie Ward still present on the team’s first injury report of the week.
- Colts WRs Michael Pittman (back) and Josh Downs (groin/toe) again started their week of preparation with a DNP on Wednesday. The two have been managing injuries for the previous three weeks.
- Colts RB Jonathan Taylor (ankle) started his practice week with a limited session Wednesday and appears ready to return from a three-game absence.
How indianapolis Will Try To Win ::
The Colts rank bottom 10 in pass rate over expectation (PROE), plays per game, drive success rate, and total pass volume, and they rank 16th in total offense and 18th in points per game. To put into perspective how poor Richardson has been as a passer this season, his completion rate is 8% lower than Bryce Young, ranked dead last by a wide margin. Of quarterbacks that have appeared in four or more games this season, only Young has a worse passer rating. Only Young has a worse completion rate over expectation, a weighted metric to account for depth of target in the completion-rate formula. The Colts have averaged just 54.75 offensive plays per game in Richardson’s four full games this season, with total pass volume in those games of 19, 34, 20, and 24 pass attempts. It becomes clear fairly quickly that Shane Steichen wants to do everything in his power to keep the ball on the ground for as long as possible, considering Richardson has turned the ball over in each of his four full games via six interceptions and one lost fumble (four total fumbles).
Taylor returned to the practice field for the first time since suffering a high-ankle sprain in Week 4, logging a limited session on Wednesday to start the week. I currently expect him to return with no limitation after missing three games. That’s an interesting setup, considering Taylor ranks second in snap rate (77.5%) and first in opportunity share (88.2%) in healthy games this season, clearly operating as one of the few workhorse backs in the league. He has put up “good not great” metrics this season, with 4.8 yards per carry behind 2.75 yards after contact per attempt behind an offensive line blocking to the sixth-most yards before contact per attempt. The matchup is not great on paper against a Texans defense allowing just 1.37 yards before contact per attempt (third) and 4.5 yards per carry, but Taylor is likely to have volume on his side considering he has averaged 18 carries and 2.5 targets per game in a low-volume offense this season. Taylor’s likely return to the lineup is likely to influence the snaps and opportunities of Trey Sermon more than Tyler Goodson, the latter of whom is better suited to change-of-pace duties behind the skill set of Taylor.
Pittman has seen target counts of 8 // 7 // 5 // 5 in Richardson’s four fully healthy games, returning yardage totals of 31, 21, 36, and 63 in those games. Downs missed the first two games of the season, leaving him with target counts with Richardson of five and three and yardage totals with Richardson of 22 and three. Alec Pierce continues to operate as the primary downfield threat with both Pittman and Downs confined to short-to-intermediate work, but he’s seen target counts of just 3 // 7 // 2 // 5 in the four Richardson games. Finally, there are now four tight ends that see weekly snaps in this offense, with no player playing more than 50-55% of the offensive snaps on a weekly basis. Add it all up, and there isn’t a ton to love from this passing game considering Richardson’s struggles with accuracy, known offensive tendencies, and a matchup against a Texans defense that forces opponents to march the field.
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