Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- QB Daniel Jones was added to the practice report Thursday with a calf injury. He was limited. We don’t like seeing mid-week downgrades, but this one seems to be far from noteworthy.
- WR Xavier Worthy upgraded from DNP to limited Thursday with a knee injury. I currently expect him to play.
- RB Isiah Pacheco got in a full practice on Wednesday before taking it easier with a limited session Thursday. He looks primed to return from a two-game absence.
- The Colts average the most yards per play (6.4) and are first in the league in offensive DVOA. The Chiefs rank ninth in yards per play (5.7) and are third in the league in offensive DVOA.
- The Colts are ninth in points allowed per game (20.6) while the Chiefs are fourth in points allowed per game (18.1).
- This game is one of the better real-world games of the season, with both sides seeing strength-on-strength matchups.
- Structurally speaking, both of these defenses function similarly. They try and eliminate downfield passing and explosives through the air while funneling elevated rates of targets to the slot.
JM’S JOURNAL ::
Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.
How INDIANAPOLIS Will Try To Win ::
Jones has attempted more than 30 passes only four times this season, and only twice since Week 4. The Colts average 27.4 rush attempts and 32.4 pass attempts per game this season. Interestingly enough, Jonathan Taylor only has three games all season with more than 18 carries and is still handily leading the league in rushing and total touchdowns, already having amassed a ridiculous 497 yards on explosive runs. Make no mistake, head coach Shane Steichen should be applauded for the way he has turned around this franchise this season, with his offense one of the most difficult in the league to stay ahead of. He consistently places opposing defenses on their back foot. As soon as opposing defensive coordinators think they have him pegged, he throws different motions, formations, and run-pass options at them. The offense aims to generate mismatches all over the field early and then hammer the football down your throat late, something he has done to great effect this season.
Taylor already has five multi-touchdown games this season, all five of which were three-touchdown games. That is absurd. His 17 total touchdowns handily lead the league, as do his 1,139 yards and 6.0 yards per attempt. He has been nothing short of phenomenal. The Chiefs can also be susceptible to man/gap concepts, behind which Taylor has enjoyed a 66% boost in success rate as compared to behind zone concepts, scoring 13 of his 15 rushing touchdowns in that split. He also averages a ridiculous 7.26 yards per carry behind man/gap concepts. This is the key matchup for the Colts this week – how effective can Taylor be with the Chiefs having watched his exploits this season? No other back sees consistent usage in the Indianapolis backfield.
The offense appears to be 12-personnel-heavy on the surface, something Steichen is using to help generate those mismatches we mentioned above. Heavy personnel alignments structurally force opposing defenses to react, typically towards higher rates of single-high and/or dime. For the Colts, that has manifested into elevated rates of Cover-3 and Cover-4 being played against them, leading to the 11th-highest zone rate against. If teams show Cover-3, they have the players that can take advantage of one-on-one coverage on the perimeter or gash you over the middle of the field. If teams show two-high, they can gash you on the ground with Taylor. If teams show two-high and sneak a safety into the box, they wash, rinse, and repeat their exploits against Cover-3. Steichen places you into a vicious cycle of playing catch-up, and it wouldn’t be possible without the multi-faceted strain he places on opposing defenses. The macro matchup against Steve Spagnuolo’s defense is going to be a sight to behold, with this game shaping up to be one of the better real-world football games we have seen this season. On-field chess match alert. Tight end Tyler Warren has been the team’s preferred weapon against Cover-4 and two-high alignments, offering yet another mismatch they are able to generate during the flow of the game, while Alec Pierce has become the man-beater on the perimeter and Michael Pittman continues to be one of the more well-rounded receivers in the game. Josh Downs’ weekly role is typically at the mercy of the offense’s elevated 12-personnel rates, meaning he is typically held in the 50-65% snap rate range. Spags is dynamic enough that no single pass catcher truly stands out on paper, but it wouldn’t shock me to see Warren or Pierce emerge as the top dog here, depending on the flow of the game.
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