Colts (

23) at
Chargers (

25.5)

Game Overview ::

By Mike Johnson >>

• The Colts lead the league in scoring at 32.3 points per game and would likely be 6-0 if not for Adonai Mitchell’s early celebration against the Rams.
• Jonathan Taylor is the league’s leading rusher and has an elite matchup against a Chargers defense that has been destroyed by De’Von Achane and Jacory Croskey-Merritt over the last two weeks.
• Los Angeles played their first game without Omarion Hampton last week and explosive second year RB Kimani Vidal seized control of the backfield.
• The Chargers expect to have WR Quentin Johnston back in the lineup this week for a game in which they are likely to be forced to score a lot of points to keep pace.
• Chargers games have been lower scoring this season than underlying metrics would expect in large part due to their red zone struggles on offense and their ability to keep their opponents from scoring touchdowns in the red zone as well.

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How indianapolis Will Try To Win ::

The Colts have been one of the best stories in the NFL to start the season as the Daniel Jones revival tour continued in Week 6 with another fourth quarter comeback on a game winning drive, his second of the season. Indianapolis has scored 29 or more points in five of their six games so far this season. The one game in which they failed to do so, they scored 20 against a very strong Rams defense and realistically it should have been 27 if Adonai Mitchell had not let go of the ball and possibly his career with the Colts at the one yard line. This week they face a Chargers defense that has surrendered 20+ points to every team except the Raiders and is battling several injuries at this point. The matchup in terms of strength against weakness also bodes extremely well for the Colts.

While the play of Daniel Jones has been a great story, this team is built first and foremost around all pro RB Jonathan Taylor. JT leads the league in rushing and total touchdowns through six weeks, while catching at least four passes in each of the last four games. The Colts have also blown out three of their opponents, so Taylor’s numbers could easily be even higher if not for game script allowing them to rest him late in those spots. This week the Colts face a Chargers defense that has been destroyed on the ground of late – with each of Jacory Croskey-Merritt and De’Von Achane having their best games of the season against Los Angeles in the last two weeks. Both JCM and Achane averaged eight yards per carry and went over 100 rushing yards, while each also scored two touchdowns. The Colts offensive line is fourth in the NFL in adjusted line yards per carry and Taylor is playing at an elite level, which means that the Colts approach in this spot will start heavily focused on Taylor and likely stay that way until the Chargers show they are able to slow him down, which may not happen at all.

When the Colts do take to the air, their top options have been rookie tight end Tyler Warren and wide receivers Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs. Downs played all of Week 6 and played well, but has since been put in concussion protocol for a hit that was missed during the game (likely on his touchdown) and his status for this game is in doubt. The likely effect of this would be for Pittman to move into the slot wide receiver role with Alec Pierce and Ashton Dulin the perimeter downfield threats in three wide receiver personnel, while Pittman will bump outside and push Dulin to the bench in two wide receiver formations. The Chargers play a heavy rate of zone coverage and most of Daniel Jones’ targets will likely funnel to Warren and Pittman with Downs unlikely to be in the mix. This should concentrate the targets a bit for the Colts and raise both the floor and ceiling for Warren and Pittman. Meanwhile, the likely success of their running game should open up some opportunities for downfield shots as the Chargers will likely be forced to load the box unless they are cool with letting JT run for 200 yards.

How los angeles Will Try To Win ::