XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
We’ll wrap up Week 5 with the Chiefs visiting the Jaguars for a 45.5 total game in which Kansas City is favored by 3.5. The Chiefs are fresh off an obliteration of the badly-injured Ravens defense in which they put up 37 points, while the Jags are 3-1 thanks to some solid defense despite Trevor Lawrence playing some of the worst football of his career.
KANSAS CITY
The Chiefs backfield is still a split with Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt both playing meaningful snaps. Pacheco has played more than Hunt so far, up until last week when Hunt took a 44% – 37% snap share lead, but I think that was also partly due to the game blowing out, which let backup Brashard Smith play and take some late-game work that otherwise probably would have gone to Pacheco. The backfield is tough to trust, but the prices at least work with Pacheco at $6,200 and Hunt all the way down at $4,200. That’s probably about fair, I think, given their respective workloads (Pacheco is averaging 10.2 opportunities per game while Hunt is at 10.5). Neither are inspiring plays, as the Jags have been much better against the run than the pass so far this year. I’ll lean towards Pacheco even at a higher price as Hunt has looked just abysmal so far. Hunt’s been averaging well under 4 yards per carry and he isn’t being used as much in the passing game as he used to be, so I think that while both have seen modest workloads so far, there’s room for Pacheco’s to grow, while I think the same is highly unlikely for Hunt.
Showdown Ownership Projections!
Ownership updates automatically
In the passing game, the return of Xavier Worthy was extremely welcome last week. Despite wearing a shoulder brace, Worthy led the team in targets, catches, and yardage. He should be back closer to a full snap count this week, which gives him further upside, and the matchup is more favorable through the air – wheels up for Worthy here, who really is the WR1 of this offense currently with Rashee Rice still out. At $8,800, it’s a more than fair price. I’m in. Hollywood Brown is the WR2 and is seeing solid target volume, but with an aDOT of just 7.7 yards, it’s tough for him to find a ceiling for his price – he almost certainly needs a touchdown to do it. He’s a reasonable play, but Worthy is clearly a much better one. JuJu Smith-Schuster is in a similar role to Hollywood, running low aDOT routes, and while Hollywood has better YAC ability, JuJu’s bargain basement price of $4,800 keeps him firmly in play. Finally, Tyquan Thornton saw a big hit to his snap rate with Worthy’s return (which was a bummer for us OWS analysts, as we all thought it would impact JuJu, not Thornton). He’s still in a deep role that gives him ceiling on limited targets, but it’s unlikely he exceeds 50% of the snaps here, making him a very volatile boom or bust option. At $5,200, he’s a bit overpriced for that kind of high-variance role. I’ll still want some because he does have a solid ceiling, but the floor is shaky.
One thing to note: we expected Worthy’s return to impact JuJu because of the shoulder brace restricting his movement and ability to run and catch deeper stuff. The shoulder definitely did impact that, but JuJu still played over Thornton. There IS at least a possibility that the Chiefs switch things up, run Brown and Worthy on more shorter stuff, and have Thornton on a deeper route tree with JuJu playing less. It’s a bit of a long shot, but it’s worth considering – in that case it’s a bit of a ding to Worthy’s ceiling, it makes JuJu largely unplayable, and it would be a big boost to Thornton.
At tight end, Travis Kelce is a more floor than ceiling play at this point in his career, with a season high of 61 receiving yards. He can still find solid outcomes, especially as his price continues to tick down ($7,600 is the cheapest I can ever remember seeing him), so he’s viable, but I’d rather play Worthy personally. Worth noting: Kelce has 4 red zone targets this year, while JuJu has 5, Brown has 4, and Thornton has 3. TE2 Noah Gray is a punt option.
You must be logged in to view collective notes about a game.
You must be logged in to add notes about a game.