XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
Showdown aficionados have been loving NFL scheduling the last couple of seasons, as with the league’s quest for even more TV time, they’ve been giving us more island games. This Friday, we get the Chiefs vs the Chargers in Brazil for a 45.5 total game with Kansas City favored by a field goal. Last season, the Chiefs and Chargers were both middling offenses (right around 23 points scored per game) but elite defenses (Chargers allowed 18.5 points per game, 2nd fewest in the NFL, while the Chiefs allowed 20.5, 6th fewest). But, the Chargers are a VERY different team on the defensive side and the Chiefs are fairly different as well, adding uncertainty both to this game and to our general perceptions of these teams from last year. Our AFC West preview covers this in more depth, but the short version here is that the Chargers look likely to be weaker on defense and the Chiefs continue to look more middling on offense versus the elite offensive powerhouse that we became used to out of Kansas City a few years back.
Kansas City
The backfield is Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt with Elijah Mitchell likely in an emergency-only role. When Hunt and Pacheco were both healthy in the second half of last season, we actually saw Hunt lead the way (though Pacheco kind of seemed like he was never back to full health, so that could play into things). I think what was happening here was largely about pass protection. Hunt is a strong pass protector, while Pacheco is a shakier one. The Chiefs struggled in pass protection for much of last year, and their offensive line looks even weaker this season, so if Pacheco continues to be a poor pass protector, that could lead to more Hunt. But that said, I have to imagine the Chiefs do want Pacheco to be the guy. Hunt is 30 years old and ran for under 4 yards per carry last year and it’s just tough to build a strong run game off of him. My expectation is this: Pacheco is the lead back, but if the Chargers pass rush is getting to Mahomes, we could see that result in more Hunt playing time. Finally, it’s also worth noting that we rarely saw either back exceed a 50% snap count last season when playing together, so we could be looking at relatively low upside either way. Pacheco at $7,600 is cheap for a lead back if he is indeed a lead back, but I’d actually prefer to take the risk on Hunt at $3,600 – there just seems to be more per-dollar upside at his bargain basement price.
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In the passing game, with Rashee Rice suspended, we should see Xavier Worthy, Hollywood Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Tyquan Thornton, and possibly Jason Brownlee or Nikko Remigio in a very small role (look who’s on the active roster on game day). The Chiefs have consistently run deep at wide receiver with six different wideouts often seeing the field. Xavier Worthy really started showing tremendous improvement towards the end of the last season. From Week 15 through the playoffs, he played in six games and put up a per-game pace of 6.6/79.5/.83 line on 8.6 targets per game. That’s really good. And it came against some overall above-average defenses. With Rice suspended and Travis Kelce on the tail end of his career, I’m very interested in Worthy at a bargain price of $9k. His salary looks to be based more on his complete body of work last season rather than the second half, when we saw real, sustained improvement from the young wideout. Brown and Smith-Schuster are harder to get excited about. JuJu had one game of 130 yards on 8 targets last year but otherwise never saw more than 3 targets in a game, while Brown only played in five games, and despite significant target volume failed to eclipse 50 receiving yards once. That could be due to health and/or rust, as Brown didn’t make his season debut until Week 16, and he’s been a productive receiver in fairly recent history, so I’ll lean his way over JuJu, but in this offense, all the secondary wide receivers are pretty volatile options. Thornton was signed as a potential depth piece, but with rookie Jalen Royals injured, he’ll be on the roster and he’s expected to have at least some kind of role, including possibly returning kicks; he’s a very volatile dart throw but can definitely be in player pools.
At tight end, Travis Kelce is definitely somewhere near the end of his career. Last season, he only exceeded 100 yards twice and scored just 4 touchdowns. He can still catch the ball and he’s a very smart football player, but he’s no longer the elite athlete who can go out there and win routes and contested catches consistently. He’s a viable play in this one – he should still see volume and generally speaking the best time to play older guys is early in the season when they’re at their freshest – but at a similar price I lean Worthy’s way. Noah Gray also looks like a really strong value play at just $1,600. Gray saw more targets per game last year than JuJu and did more with them (including a pair of 2 touchdown games). He’s cheap enough that he can put up a usable score without a touchdown, but if he does find the end zone, he’s likely to be a necessary piece in optimal lineups. Playing alongside an aging Kelce, it’s also feasible that we see his role grow at Kelce’s expense.
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