Chargers (

25) at
Raiders (

21.5)

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 2 closes out with the Chargers visiting the Raiders. This game has a healthy 46.5 total with Los Angeles favored by 3.5. After taking care of the Chiefs rather handily in Week 1, the Chargers have to be riding high a bit – they led basically the entire game and took care of business against one of the league’s tougher defenses with Justin Herbert averaging 9.4 yards per dropback. The Raiders are probably equally happy, having also won in Week 1, but the Patriots just aren’t the same kind of competition. 

LOS ANGELES

On the Chargers side, rookie Omarion Hampton played 80% of the snaps and handled 15 of 16 running back carries while adding a couple of targets. RB2 Najee Harris missed a lot of training camp with an eye injury he suffered due to a fireworks accident (seriously, why do we let NFL players anywhere near fireworks?!) and barely played in Week 1. I’d guess Najee’s role grows in Week 2, but this is Hampton’s backfield. He’s not a home favorite, but he checks the other boxes: he’s good, he should have a solid workload, his team is the favorite with a high total…things line up well here for Hampton. He’s also just $7,800, somewhat perplexingly – that’s a great value. Gimme. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, the Chargers went with a pass heavy game plan in Week 1, and it paid off for them. They were, in fact, the team with the highest pass rate over expectation in the NFL. Will that continue? Who knows, but they have one of the league’s best pure passers at quarterback, their strategy just worked great in Week 1, they have a solid receiving corps…why change? Of note: out of 34 Herbert pass attempts, a whopping 26 went to the three primary wide receivers. That’s some impressive target concentration. Those wide receivers are Ladd McConkey, Keenan Allen, and Quentin Johnston. Ladd’s the WR1 here but sadly did not score in Week 1 – he’s still the favorite in any given week to lead the team in targets, catches, and yards. However, adding Allen back to the mix has dinged his slot snap rate a bit as that’s also where Allen has primarily played in his career, and now they have to share it. That could potentially cost Ladd a short, easy catch or two per game, but he’s still a solid play. I just wish he wasn’t $10.8k. Johnson is $7.4k, and Allen is just $6.4k. Allen led the team in targets in Week 1, but he also only played 62% of the offensive snaps, so I doubt that is going to continue. Given the tremendous concentration this offense showed us, all three are very much in play in a positive matchup. I’ll lean Ladd first, then Allen, then Johnson. Johnson’s still a solid play; he’s just a more volatile option than the other two, given the nature of his route tree. Tertiary WRs Keandre Lambert-Smith, Derius Davis, and rookie Tre’ Harris barely played – they’re all dart throws but thin ones.

At tight end, Will Dissly and Tyler Conklin split the work, with Dissly seeing slightly more playing time but Conklin getting 2 targets to Dissly’s 1. I expect we’ll see the overall tight end target rate drift up from the ~9% they saw in Week 1, but as long as they’re splitting work roughly down the middle, they’re both pretty thin punt options. If forced to choose, I’d lean towards Dissly as he’s on the field more, but overall, I want to focus most of my Chargers exposure on the main guys. 

LAS VEGAS

The Deuce, Week 2

Strategy Ideas for Monday’s 2-game Slate:

Overview::

It is important to understand the big picture of these teams both in terms of their inner workings and their perceptions entering this week::

• Buccaneers – The Bucs will once again be without WR Chris Godwin and LT Tristan Wirfs for this game. In the season opener, Tampa Bay struggled to sustain drives and had limited play volume (56 offensive snaps compared to 63 per game in 2024), but we could clearly see a condensed offense. Running back Bucky Irving dominated the rushing usage while he combined with WRs Mike Evans, Emeka Egbuka, and Sterling Shepard for 24 of the team’s 29 targets. This week the Bucs face a Houston defense that was elite in 2024 and started the year strong against the Rams. The Texans run defense is very good and the Bucs struggled to get anything going on the ground in Week 1 without Wirfs, so this profiles as a game where Mayfield could throw the ball 40+ times.
• Texans – The Houston offensive line was remade in the offseason and the early returns are not great. Their rushing numbers looked OK in Week 1 (4.2 yards per carry), but only one of 22 attempts went for 10+ yards and many of the yards were “empty” yards that the Rams were conceding situationally. Meanwhile, C.J. Stroud was under constant pressure and evading the pass rush all game. The team’s three scoring drives (all first half FG’s) were unimpressive – one took 13 plays to go 62 yards, one started in Rams territory, and one was aided by a Rams penalty and multiple scrambles by Stroud. Houston will look to bounce back by creating more chunk plays and having shorter third down situations after going 2/9 against the Rams.
• Chargers – The Chargers put a stamp on the 2025 season by handily beating the Chiefs in Brazil and the real story was that they led the NFL in Pass Rate Over Expectation in Week 1. Similar to the Bucs, this team has a condensed offense with three WRs (Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, and Keenan Allen) and a running back (Omarion Hampton) dominating their usage. That quartet combined for 28 of the team’s 34 targets in Week 1, while Hampton played 80% of the offensive snaps in his debut. Dollar for dollar, Hampton is probably the best role to salary value on the slate. Quarterback Justin Herbert played one of the best games of his career and looks like he is ready to have a huge year. The Raiders defense looked good in Week 1, but the Patriots lack the offensive firepower the Chargers have so this will be a telling matchup for both units.
• Raiders – Star tight end Brock Bowers missed the end of last week’s win over New England, but is reportedly on track to play. Bowers and WR Jakobi Meyers are target hogs in this offense, combining for a 60% target share in Week 1 despite Bowers missing a large chunk of the game. Secondary receiving options WR Tre Tucker, WR Dont’e Thornton, and TE Michael Mayer are all interesting on a smaller slate. The Raiders had a whopping nine pass plays of 20+ yards in Week 1 against the Patriots, but that performance seems less impressive after watching New England give up 300+ passing yards to the hapless Dolphins on Sunday.

QB Thoughts::

• Justin Herbert and Baker Mayfield are very clearly the top QB options on the slate over Geno and Stroud. Both have better supporting casts and better defenses on paper, but as we saw on Sunday’s “Afternoon Only” slate sometimes games go a different direction and QBs can fluctuate. Bryce Young led that afternoon slate thanks to the Panthers falling so far behind early and Young racking up massive volume, while Daniel Jones threw for over 300 yards and had a rushing and passing touchdown. Those two were the top QBs on that slate despite being the cheapest and lowest owned. This slate certainly feels different with Mayfield and Herbert seeming like strong bets in their situations and salary not being too restrictive, but I just mention this as a reminder to have an open mind when constructing rosters for these slates.

My guess on final ownership::

• Justin Herbert ~40%
• Baker Mayfield ~25%
• Geno Smith ~25%
• C.J. Stroud ~10%

Strategy and Game Theory::

• Overstacking is also very much in play on this slate, as a two game slate can be so wildly variant that if one of the games takes off (or one of them is a complete flop), the other one can really carry you. Most people will have about 4 or 5 players from one game and 3 or 4 from the other, as “balancing” the roster feels most comfortable. Also, the more common build tends to be choosing a defense from the game you have fewer skill players from. These are tendencies of the field that we can lean into with roster construction to gain an edge.
• The Chargers defense did a great job forcing things underneath against the Chiefs and the Raiders play two tight ends at a very high rate. In theory, this could lead to fewer opportunities (or just less successful opportunities) for secondary receivers Tre Tucker and Dont’e Thornton. Both Raiders tight ends, Brock Bowers and Michael Mayer, could be played together to create a unique roster construction. The way to look at it is you are removing Bowers from the tight end pool and betting on Mayer outscoring Dalton Schultz, Cade Otton, and the Chargers tight ends (not a huge ask)…..then looking at Bowers as a “Flex” player and betting on him being one of the higher raw scores on the slate (also not a huge ask). This construction in and of itself will be somewhat rare as it just feels so weird to play two TEs from the same team, but you can make it even more unique by doing this on rosters that DO NOT have Geno Smith at QB.
• Another unique roster construction would be three Tampa Bay WR/TE on the same roster without Mayfield. Mayfield’s salary is far higher than the other QBs and as discussed earlier this could be a high volume passing game but that doesn’t guarantee 300 passing yards or where the TDs will come from. With Geno coming off a solid game and being so cheap, while Justin Herbert has ability to add a lot of yards on the ground, this was something that stood out to me as having value on such a small slate. It isn’t hard to see one of Evans/Egbuka going over 100 yards without a touchdown, while the other one had more modest reception/yardage totals but catches a touchdown….and then either Sterling Shepard catching 5 or 6 balls at a salary of only $3,100 after being targeted 6 times in Week or Cade Otton catching a touchdown pass. Like I said, it sounds kind of crazy but the “story” for how that plays out as optimal on a slate like this really isn’t that hard to imagine.
• The Studs – As is always the case on these slates, someone among the “Studs” are likely to have the highest raw scores which makes selecting among them critical, and likely necessary to winning. There are seven players with salaries over $6,000 on this slate – one QB, two RBs, three WRs, and one TE. The reality is that when building a roster MOST rosters are going to have three players from this group as that is what looks the best and feels most comfortable. Finding a way to get four (or even five) of these “Studs” on your roster will naturally make your build more unique while also forcing you to take on some uncomfortable plays at other positions. On the flip side, if you only roster two of these players you almost certainly will have salary left over and few people will be able to resist the urge to spend that extra salary to add another perceived “stud”. I much prefer the former route, with four or five studs rather than just two, but as we try to find paths to first place not just having three will in and of itself have value.

Positional Rankings::

(My favorite plays on the slate at each position when considering all elements, including salary/ownership)

RB::

1. Omarion Hampton
2. Bucky Irving
3. Ashton Jeanty
4. Nick Chubb
5. Rachaad White

WR::

1. Emeka Egbuka
2. Nico Collins
3. Mike Evans
4. Ladd McConkey
5. Jakobi Meyers
6. Quentin Johnston
7. Keenan Allen
8. Sterling Shepard
9. Tre Tucker

TE::

1. Brock Bowers
2. Cade Otton
3. Michael Mayer
4. Dalton Schultz

SHORT SLATE-ONLY OPTIONS::

• Here are a few cheaper options that I’ll be considering on this slate that can help you make a unique lineup, but you wouldn’t be playing on the Main Slate::
  • Dont’e Thornton
  • Woody Marks
  • Jayden Higgins
  • Xavier Hutchinson
  • Tyler Conklin
  • Najee Harris

Good luck and see you in the lobby at 7:00 pm ET Monday!!

-Mike (MJohnson86)