Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- The Dolphins have faced the fewest pass attempts per game this season at 25.5.
- The Dolphins rank dead last in pass rate over expectation (PROE).
- Both of those have likely been heavily influenced by the absence of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who is due back this week from his third professional concussion (upgraded to a full participant on Thursday, meaning he is likely in the final stages of the league’s concussion protocol).
- Tyreek Hill was added to the injury report Thursday as a limited participant with a foot injury. While we never like seeing mid-week additions, a limited showing with a foot ailment is likely not enough to keep him off the field unless he is further downgraded on Friday.
- Cardinals RB James Conner has seen 18 or more running back opportunities in five of seven games this season but has yet to see more than 23, giving him a rock hard floor but a questionable ceiling.
- Drew Petzing is Drew Petzinging hard this season (it took the field a while to catch up to his flat pass game scheme, but it appears they are finally seeing him for what he is, a master of the run game scheme and jester of the pass game scheme).
How arizona Will Try To Win ::
We know the drill with these Cardinals by now. They aim to force opponents to march the field against them through elevated Cover-4/quarters and Cover-6 utilization, except they are much more talent deprived than a lot of the teams looking to execute in that fashion on defense, which has led to an increased rate of explosive plays against this season. On offense, they want to manage the ball through sustained drives of their own, with a run scheme that functions well on tape and a pass game that is largely uninspiring and fails to place their play makers in position to best maximize their talents. This is just the truth of this offense and something we have been well ahead of the field in diagnosing this season. Nothing changes for a matchup against a Dolphins defense playing some inspired football through seven weeks, allowing just 285.2 total yards of offense per game (fourth).
The Dolphins have allowed just 1.70 yards before contact per attempt this season, which ranks 10th in the league. But we know James Conner has become one of the most game environment agnostic running backs in the league; he hasn’t become this through elite talent but through consistent volume, regardless of game flow. Conner is as good a bet as any back on any slate to see 18+ running back opportunities, but an offense largely struggling to sustain drives has made his paths to truly elite weekly volume difficult to come by. Similar to Tony Pollard in Tennessee, Conner has seen 18+ running back opportunities in five of seven games but has not seen more than 23 in a game this season. This makes his weekly floor one of the more bankable floors in the league, albeit with an extremely narrow path to a true slate-breaking ceiling. Considering the matchup and expected game environment, I see no reason why that changes here. Emari Demercado and Trey Benson fill loose change of pace roles and each back has seen more than 15 offensive snaps in a game this season just once.
Similar to James Conner, third-year tight end Trey McBride has seen consistently middling volume this season, seeing between six and nine targets in every healthy game (missed Week 4 with a concussion). Rookie wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. has all the talent in the world but has seen more than a modest eight targets just once all season, his blowup coming out party against the Rams where he did massive damage in the first quarter and did very little the rest of the game. The Dolphins have allowed the sixth highest rush rate over expectation this season, with much of that damage done in the four games played with Tagovailoa, leading to them facing the fewest pass attempts per game in the league at just 25.5. Michael Wilson is the only other near every-down pass-catcher in this offense but he has seen four or fewer targets in four of seven games this season, failing to see double-digit looks in any game. Uninspiring and flat, that’s really the status of this pass offense under offensive coordinator Drew Petzing.
You must be logged in to view collective notes about a game.
You must be logged in to add notes about a game.