GAME Overview ::
BY Hilow >>
- Buccaneers WR Chris Godwin avoided PUP but is reportedly going to miss multiple games to start the season. Beat reporters place his return in October.
- Buccaneers TE Cade Otton injured his hamstring early in camp and then missed practices post-third preseason game due to “leg soreness.” The most recent reports (27 August) were that he will miss “a little bit” – we don’t currently know if that jeopardizes his Week 1 status.
- Buccaneers OT Tristan Wirfs is almost assuredly going to miss time to start the season.
- Almost nothing changes for the Bucs on the defensive side of the ball – expect the same elevated blitz rates (third-ranked 34.2% in 2024) and overall aggression from Todd Bowles’ defense.
- The Tampa Bay offense should look similar to what we saw last season. New offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard was Liam Coen’s “right-hand man” while serving as the team’s pass-game coordinator. He also served under Mike McDaniel in Miami for two seasons.
- Falcons WR Darnell Mooney returned to practice Wednesday (27 August) and appears to be on track for Week 1.
HOW TAMPA BAY WILL TRY TO WIN ::
While the Tampa Bay offensive line performed extremely well in 2024, their depth, or, lack thereof, is another story. The Bucs kept just three reserve offensive linemen through roster cuts, two of which are swing tackles – Charlie Heck, a 2020 fourth-round pick with just 23 career starts, and Benjamin Chukwuma, an undrafted free agent. I expect Heck to get the start on Baker Mayfield’s blindside in Week 1. Heck is a replacement-level talent with below-average grades in pass blocking in four of five seasons and below-average grades in run blocking in all five seasons as a professional. Mayfield faced pressure on just 24.7% of his dropbacks in 2024, third lowest in the league, behind Tampa’s second-ranked pass-blocking grade from PFF. We lead with all of this for a specific reason – it makes the absence of Wirfs notable for how it will likely influence their ability to stick to their game plan early in the year. In 2024, the Buccaneers held a 59.7% overall pass rate, which fell to 51.4% when leading by seven or more points and jumped to a whopping 71.0% when trailing by seven or more points and 72.9% with five to nine yards to go. Those numbers could become important here even with the change at offensive coordinator. Grizzard was hired from within after serving as the team’s pass-game coordinator under Coen and effectively operating as the former coordinator’s “right-hand man,” and operates a system that stresses verticality and stretching the field. Grizzard also served under McDaniel for two season in Miami. He has said the verbiage and formations will remain the same from Coen’s offense last season. Not a ton changes in 2025 on the defensive side of the ball under Bowles, and the bulk of their starters return for the new season. To that end, expect aggressive defensive play calling and elevated blitz rates (third-ranked 34.2% in 2024) designed to generate consistent pressure in the backfield, with Vita Vea serving as one of the best nose tackles in the league to combat the run.
The potential absence of Otton could also become a meaningful aspect of this game, as he was routinely deployed on the left side of the formation when Wirfs missed time in 2024. That does two things to the offense: (1) It allowed Otton to help the backup left tackle in protection on obvious passing downs, and (2) it made the Buccaneers’ offense less balanced, as most obvious passing plays involved a very Remember the Titans-esque left side-strong side formation, with the tight end on the left side of the formation. Again, this could become important when we talk about the defensive tendencies of the Falcons. As for how Wirfs’ absence and Otton’s potential absence influence the run game, I would expect Grizzard to utilize the same zone-heavy run scheme with gap concepts mixed in, with a clear potential bias towards the right side of the formation. The Bucs made a distinctive shift towards increased emphasis on Bucky Irving towards the end of last season, a shift that coincided with the team’s Week 11 bye. From Week 12 on last year, Irving handled 15.9 carries and averaged 18.3 fantasy points per game, but he still saw only 45.5% of the carries inside the five. Rachaad White, who suffered a groin strain in the first preseason game, appears to have avoided a major injury and should be good to go for this game, while the team also still has Sean Tucker on hand for change-of-pace duties. Reading the tea leaves from beat reports out of Tampa this offseason, I expect Tucker to usurp White as the primary change-of-pace back in short order. Either way, we’re looking at a clear “1A/1B to lead-back-change-of-pace back” situation here. Ulbrich’s defenses have notoriously been susceptible to the run due to their reliance on athleticism for heavy pursuit, often leading to overpursuit on the ground.
Godwin, although not yet ruled out, is almost certainly going to miss this contest. Fellow wide receiver Jalen McMillan was placed on injured reserve. Now Otton is uncertain to start the season with multiple leg injuries. I expect Payne Durham to start should Otton miss, although beat writer reports imply second-year pro Devin Culp should see his fair share of opportunity as well after posting a 5-88 line on six targets with multiple contested downfield catches and an average of 3.4 yards per route run during Otton’s Week 16-18 absence in 2024. Last season, Durham played 190 snaps on passing plays, was in a route on 148 of those snaps, and saw 13 targets (8.8% targets per route run). More known for his blocking (nicknamed the “human battering ram”), it is highly unlikely he ascends to a meaningful target rate here. That effectively leaves veteran Mike Evans and rookie Emeka Egbuka as the only clear pass-catching options, should Otton miss with injury. Expect Sterling Shepard and Ryan Miller to be involved by necessity. Things change a bit should Otton play, but it currently does not look like that will be the case. Ulbrich’s defense typically involves some clever deception that utilizes heavy zone rates on early downs and heavy man rates in clear passing situations. The two aspects of that exploration that I find most interesting are the ways he develops his deception and the preference for a shadow in clear passing situations. While Ulbrich doesn’t deploy a ton of man on early downs, he loves to show man coverage in the secondary before bailing to zone – something that sends youngsters into increased rates of mistakes. I don’t expect that to befuddle Mayfield at similar rates. The second-most interesting aspect of this matchup on paper is the heavy shadow utilization from man. I expect A.J. Terrell to be right in Evans’ hip pocket whenever this defense finds itself in man coverage. Egbuka could be primed for an early-season eruption in his rookie year, starting with this game.
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