Bucs (

20.5) at
Hawks (

24)

Game Overview ::

By Mike Johnson >>

• The Bucs are likely to play this game without star running back Bucky Irving, due to a foot sprain. Irving will be replaced in the lineup by Rachaad White and Sean Tucker.
• Through four weeks, the Seahawks defense is one of the best in the NFL by most metrics and has been especially dominant against the run.
• Bucs WR Chris Godwin returned to the lineup in Week 4 and immediately earned 10 targets.
• Seattle’s backfield continues to be split fairly evenly between Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet. They have a tough matchup this week against the Bucs #1 ranked run defense.
• Seattle has the second lowest pass rate relative to expectation among all NFL teams, but reason to believe that will change this week.

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How tampa bay Will Try To Win ::

The Bucs are a fun team to watch play and compete and have had four very entertaining games so far this season. They continue to deal with a litany of injuries on both sides of the ball and particularly among their skill players. Tampa Bay started the season with a road win over their division rival Falcons by the grace of a missed Falcons field goal at the end of the game, then beat the Texans on the road with a touchdown in the final seconds, and survived a second half comeback by the Jets with a field goal as time expired. In Week 4, the Eagles came to town and brought a different level of opponent than Tampa had seen to that point and came out swinging, as the Bucs fell behind 24-6 at halftime. The Bucs capitalized on a couple of long touchdowns that could be classified as fluky, if not lucky. If you remove those two plays from the Bucs stats in Week 4, they averaged only 3.5 yards per play (for reference, the Titans are worst in the league this season at 3.7 yards per play). 

Obviously, removing big plays would hurt any team’s statistics, and the Eagles are a very good defense, but this week the Bucs face a Seattle defense that is ranked #1 in the NFL in defensive DVOA (2nd against the pass, 3rd against the run) and has excelled at limiting big plays. The Seattle defense has suffocated opponents as head coach Mike Macdonald’s unit is playing at an elite level in his second season with the team. This has been the case despite some defensive injuries for the Seahawks and Seattle may be without key defenders once again this week as DE Demarcus Lawrence, CB Devon Witherspoon, and S Julian Love all missed practice on Thursday. Seattle has very good personnel, but their scheme and concepts allow them to be successful at what they do even when down some bodies. The Seahawks are top-5 in the NFL in zone coverage rate and blitz at the second lowest rate in the league, leaving bodies in coverage and relying on their defensive front to get pressure.

The Bucs running game has been up and down this season, but took a big hit in Week 5 due to the likely absence of star running back Bucky Irving, who sustained foot and shoulder injuries in Week 4. He will be replaced by some combination of Rachaad White and Sean Tucker. However, given the offensive line’s injuries and struggles creating a push this season and the tough matchup, it is hard to see the Bucs creating much on the ground in this spot. The likely result would be an elevated pass rate and a focus on the short area and quick passing game. The Bucs welcomed back Chris Godwin in Week 4, and he instantly earned 10 targets. Godwin, veteran Sterling Shepard, and rookie sensation Emeka Egbuka are all very versatile and adept at working in the short areas of the field. White is likely to play the most running back snaps for Tampa Bay and his skill set as a pass catcher also fits this matchup well, while the Bucs also have tight end Cade Otton to soak up a few targets and the low blitz rate from Seattle should allow both White and Otton to get out into routes quite frequently.

How seattle Will Try To Win ::