Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- OT Tristan Wirfs (toe) remained sidelined at practice on Wednesday, although he has continued to play through the ailment (other than in Week 14).
- Safety Minkah Fitzpatrick (calf) was a ‘DNP’ on Wednesday after missing Week 16. Definitely something to keep an eye on from the leader of the Miami secondary.
- The Dolphins have been the most run-heavy team in the league during the second half of the season. Somewhat quietly (and shockingly), the Buccaneers rank 26th in PROE since their Week 9 bye.
- There doesn’t appear to be a ton of upside from this game environment, leaving it firmly in the “one-off or bust” realm.
JM’S JOURNAL ::
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How tampa bay Will Try To Win ::
It has been a tale of two seasons for the Buccaneers. They started off hot by winning five of their first six games before taking a 6-2 record into their Week 9 bye. We know injuries have ravaged this team, but the way they have approached games following their bye week has been completely different from how they started the season. This was never a heavy PROE team, but they rank 26th in PROE from Week 10 on, losers of six of seven in that span (including last week’s “battle for the NFC South against the Panthers). They are no longer interested in running up the score early and coasting in the second half, instead taking a much more methodical approach throughout as they look to eke out wins late. That has been far from fruitful of late, considering they have lost their last three by a combined total of eight points. Even through all that, the Buccaneers still have a clear path to the postseason, with the easiest path being to take care of business against the Dolphins to set up a “winner take all” rematch against the Panthers in Week 18. Which is to say, there should be no change to their overall approach against Miami.
Last week was the first game that Bucky Irving reclaimed a true lead-back role since returning from injury in Week 13, at least as far as snap rate is concerned. He has handled exactly 18 or 19 opportunities in each of those four contests, now averaging 20.6 opportunities per game in his eight healthy games this season. That said, he is averaging a putrid 3.51 yards per carry and has exactly zero carries inside the five in 2025. The Dolphins have been much better against the run in the second half of the season, ceding 4.23 yards per carry, a low 3.7% explosive run rate, and allowing only four rushing scores in the six games since Week 9. There is nothing in the profile or matchup that screams upside beyond the expectation of 18+ opportunities for Irving. Rachaad White maintains the primary change of pace and clear passing downs role, while Sean Tucker is used almost entirely in short yardage situations, including goal line work. Finally, the Buccaneers are primarily a man/gap run offense with over 60% of their carries as a team coming within that blocking structure. In the last six games, the Dolphins have ceded only 3.16 yards per carry to opposing man/gap concepts.
There was a report that came out on Wednesday from head coach Todd Bowles, where he stated that he wanted to get rookie wide receiver Emeka Egbuka more involved early in Week 17, which would make a lot of sense had he not just been held to 64% and 56% snap rates the previous two games. What changed in those two games was that both Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan were healthy, marking the first two games of the season for McMillan and only the sixth appearance for Evans. In other words, the coaching staff has shown us that they continue to value McMillan, continue to view Evans as the alpha, and are unwilling to change the role of veteran Chris Godwin, effectively leaving Egbuka out in the rain in recent weeks. I don’t know if that quote can be taken at face value, or if we can jump to the conclusion that Egbuka is a lock to see a greater role in the final two games of the regular season. What we know is this: this is an offense in 11-personnel, one that now has four primary receivers healthy, in addition to the inclusion of now-situational-piece Tez Johnson. I spent so much time on that because of the defensive tendencies from the Dolphins, a team that has utilized zone coverage at an inflated 78.2% clip in the previous six games, and how these pass-catchers have exploited those coverages this season. Within that hefty zone rate is a somewhat hidden 34.1% Cover-2 rate, which is almost unheard of in the league in recent history. On paper, it is Evans, tight end Cade Otton, and Chris Godwin that lead the charge against Cover-2, with Otton (2.09 YPRR) and Godwin (2.19 YPRR) the most efficient. Cover-3 is a different story entirely, with the lauded rookie leading the way with a hefty 0.29 TPRR and solid 2.29 YPRR. Within the assumption that the Buccaneers would prefer not to air the football out at elevated rates, nothing truly pops on paper from this spot, although Evans and Egbuka theoretically carry the most upside.
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