Browns (

16.5) at
Raiders (

19.5)

Game Overview ::

By Mike johnson >>

• Browns fans are rejoicing for the first NFL start of rookie QB Shedeur Sanders, who replaced Dillon Gabriel in poor weather last week.
• The Raiders showed a notable shift in approach in Week 11 with 42 pass attempts and only 8 running back carries, which is an approach they may be forced to replicate this week.
• Cleveland’s defense is near the top of the league in sacks, while Geno Smith is near the top of the league in sacks taken.
• Expect a heavy dose of RB Quinshon Judkins for the Browns in this game as they look to protect their rookie quarterback.

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How cleveland Will Try To Win ::

The Browns will hand the keys to their offense over to polarizing rookie QB Shedeur Sanders for this cross-country road game against a Raiders team playing on a short week. Sanders was thrown in the fire last week against the Ravens in poor weather, but the Cleveland defense and a low scoring game script allowed Sanders to be mostly protected from having his inexperience exposed. Sanders completed only 4 of 16 passes for 47 yards, while taking 2 sacks and throwing an interception. The Ravens defense has been playing exceptionally well over the last month, and cold, windy conditions did no favors for the offenses in that game, as evidenced by the sub-par stat line posted by Lamar Jackson. This week, there will be no such excuses in the climate-controlled dome in Las Vegas and with a full week of preparation against a middling defense.

The Browns offensive approach will likely focus primarily on rookie running back Quinshon Judkins, who has been a focal point for the offense whenever game script allows. In games that Judkins has played and the Browns won or kept within one score, he has opportunity counts of 19, 25, 25, 25, and 20 – an average of 23.2 opportunities per game. Judkins had 13 or fewer opportunities in three of four games, which were not within one-possession, all of which the Browns lost by 14 or more points. The Raiders are 4-point favorites in this game and have only won two games this season, by scores of 20-13 and 20-10. Suffice it to say that the Browns will feel comfortable riding Judkins in a workhorse role in this game for a long time and will be willing to lean on their elite defense to keep them in it. The Browns have been throwing the ball at a rate significantly below expectations all season, and we can safely assume that will be the case once again this week.

When the Browns do pass, expect their tight ends to be heavily involved. Rookie Harold Fannin Jr. and veteran David Njoku both play very high snap rates and run routes on most pass plays. The goal with Sanders will be to give him easy reads and get the ball out of his hands quickly. Such was the case at Colorado for Sanders, where most of the concepts he had success with in college were relatively simple concepts that focused on getting the ball to his playmakers and letting them do the heavy lifting. Sanders led the NCAA in completion percentage in 2024 in large part thanks to this offensive approach. The thing Sanders struggles most with at this point in his career is holding onto the ball too long and trying to ad-lib when things aren’t there early in the play. Multiple times last week we saw his line break down and miss picking up Baltimore blitzes that the quarterback should have identified and shifted protection towards. If the Browns are able to control the line of scrimmage and establish a running game while keeping their passing game quick and focused on the short areas of the field, they should be in good shape. They need to have success in these areas, so Sanders isn’t put into long down and distance situations where the defense can trick things up on him and he is forced to do more than he should at this point in his development. Wide receivers Jerry Jeudy and Cedric Tillman have good matchups against the Raiders secondary, which ranks 31st in PFF coverage grade, but it seems unlikely that the Browns will voluntarily attack that weakness early in the game.

How las vegas Will Try To Win ::