Browns (

16.75) at
Patriots (

23.75)

Game Overview ::

By >> Mike johnson

• The Browns defense has allowed 33 points per game on the road, compared to only 13.5 points per game at home.
• Cleveland expects to get tight end David Njoku back from his knee injury after a one week absence.
• The Browns have been heavily rumored to be a team that may trade veterans prior to next week’s trade deadline.
• Patriots QB Drake Maye continues to play at an elite level this season and has scored 20+ fantasy points in five of seven games.
• The Patriots have one of the easier schedules in the league and this week is the third game in a row where they face a team near the bottom of the league’s power rankings.
• Both defenses rank top-3 in the NFL in yards per carry allowed, potentially setting the stage for a more pass-heavy game script than most people would initially expect.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.

How cleveland Will Try To Win ::

The Browns recipe for success this season has been to lean on their strong defense and try to stay close to opponents, hoping for them to beat themselves. This has been approximately the approach for Cleveland regardless of whether rookie Dillon Gabriel or previous starter Joe Flacco has been under center. Overall, the team’s approach has been a run-focused attack that is not aggressive throwing the ball downfield until or unless they have to be.

Cleveland ranks 25th on the season in pass rate over expectation, but ranks 30th in that statistic over the last four weeks (three of which have been started by Gabriel). The Browns are happy to stick with the run unless the game script really gets away from them AND their opponent is able to shut down their rushing efficiency. For example, they were down 20-7 at halftime and lost 34-10 against the Lions a few weeks ago, but only had a 57% pass rate in that game. However, this profiles as a matchup where that approach may be difficult for Cleveland to stick with. The Patriots under head coach Mike Vrabel rank 6th in the NFL in run defense DVOA and 3rd in opponents yards per carry allowed. Meanwhile, the Patriots pass defense has struggled throughout the season. New England does have all pro cornerback Christian Gonzalez who usually guards his yard very well, but the overall impact of this defense is that opponents struggle to run the ball or pass downfield to primary wide receivers, but are beatable for secondary receivers and tight ends. All of this leads to a situation where we should expect Quinshon Judkins to be very busy on early down rushes, but also for tight ends Harold Fannin Jr. and David Njoku to be heavily targeted. Njoku is expected back from a knee injury that forced him to miss last week’s win over Miami, while WR Jerry Jeudy missed Wednesday’s practice but returned to a limited session Thursday. Jeudy has been one of the least efficient receivers in the league this season, but his mere presence on the field will be important for an otherwise unimposing passing game.

How new england Will Try To Win ::