XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
Week 6 has another international game as the Broncos and the Jets will play in London in the hopes of finally convincing the British what “football” really is. This game has a 43.5 total, and the Broncos are favored by 7.5 in most spots, as the market seems to have no faith in the Jets, and probably with good reason. Happily, we have essentially clean injury reports, at least of the players who we can roster in Showdown play.
NEW YORK
On the Jets side of things, with Braelon Allen being on injured reserve, Breece Hall’s snap count was still stuck in the low 60s (62% to be exact), and he saw 19 opportunities. The game script got away from the Jets a bit in this one and affected the run game play. I expect Hall would have gotten over 20 opportunities if the game had been close, but that’s been a problem for the Jets pretty consistently this season. Hall is plenty talented, but it seems like the Jets aren’t willing to give him the kind of workloads we see for the few true bell cows in the league, but he’s also not priced like, say, CMC at $9,800. With solid receiving work to boost his floor and no Allen to steal goal-line touches, I’m fine with Hall, but I prefer some of the other expensive options. Backup Isaiah Davis saw 5 opportunities last week, 4 of them being targets, and while he’s a little pricey for an RB2 on a mediocre offense at $4k, he’s still in somewhat playable territory.
In the passing game, Garrett Wilson is playing almost every snap and is 3rd in the league with a massive 32.9% target share. He’s the clear primary option, and his route tree should at least partially keep him away from top Broncos cornerback Pat Surtain. He’s spendy, but I think given the likeliest game script, I prefer him to Hall (it’s fairly close, though, and I wouldn’t fault you if you preferred Hall instead). The Broncos other wide receivers are going to be Josh Reynolds, Arian Smith, and then Tyler Johnson will probably get some snaps back as Allen Lazard is hurt and will miss this game. Reynolds is playing a lot of snaps but only has 9 targets in three games played. Smith’s snap share seems to be trending up a bit, but only 5 targets. Johnson had three games of 70%+ snaps with 6 targets to show for it. These guys are all thin options because even the guys on the field aren’t really getting targets – the pass volume is flowing through Wilson, Hall, and then the tight end. They’re all cheap and thus playable. Reynolds is the one who’s going to project the most, but I’d lean towards Smith personally, as I think he’s the player whose role is probably on the increase, and he’s also only $1,200. I’d rank these guys as Smith, then Reynolds, then Johnson.
At tight end, Mason Taylor has really been carving out a role for himself lately with 6, 7, and then 12 (!) targets in the Jets last three games. I’d project him for around 6-8 here, and at $5,200, that’s very reasonable for his price, even if the per-target upside is relatively modest. I expect he’s going to be popular as he’ll probably outproject the kickers he’s priced near, but on paper, he’s a strong option on a very concentrated Jets target tree. TE2 Jeremy Ruckert has more targets on the year than Smith and Johnson, so even though his snaps are modest, he’s still hanging around the same level of viability as those guys.
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