Game Overview ::
By Mike Johnson >>
- The Broncos could easily be 2-0 right now if not for some self-inflicted mistakes and clock management gaffes against the Colts last week.
- Broncos second year wide receiver Troy Franklin had a breakout game in Indianapolis and it will be interesting to see if that role/usage holds up.
- Denver continues to use a frustrating three-man running back committee, led by veteran J.K. Dobbins.
- The Chargers appear committed to a pass heavy offensive game plan this season, leading the league in pass rate over expectation through two weeks by a large margin.
- Najee Harris took a much larger share of the backfield work in Week 2 as he gets back to full strength from his offseason eye injury.
JM’S JOURNAL ::
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How denver Will Try To Win ::
The Broncos put on a clinic in late-game mismanagement in their Week 2 loss to the Colts. Ahead by five and in field goal range in the 4th quarter, quarterback Bo Nix forced a pass to wide receiver Courtland Sutton that was intercepted. The Colts kicked a field goal to cut the lead to two on the ensuing drive. Later, the Broncos were driving and got the ball down to the Indianapolis 25-yard line with a first and ten and under five minutes remaining. Tight end Adam Trautman was called for a 15-yard face mask penalty that pushed them back, and ended up with Denver missing a field goal. The Colts then marched down the field but missed a 60-yard field goal to win, however, the Broncos committed a foolish “leverage” penalty that gave them another chance from much closer, which they converted. To summarize, there were several points where the Broncos could have still won a game where they struggled a bit on the road, but failed to execute and essentially beat themselves. This week, they enter a massive matchup with the Chargers, who can take a two-game lead in the division with a win here. The Chiefs have dominated the AFC West since 2015, but are 0-2 with a lot of holes on their roster. Both of these teams have the talent to take control but will need to show they can execute on a championship level to take advantage of the opening Kansas City is giving them.
Denver ranks sixth in the NFL in pass rate over expectation (PROE) and is prone to play at a fast tempo, ranking top-10 in situation neutral pace of play in 2024 and to start this season. The Colts were able to take away Sutton, their top wide receiver, in Week 2 but Troy Franklin and Marvin Mims Jr. stepped up to make them pay. The Broncos continue to rotate their tight ends and running backs, with three players at each position being involved in the weekly game plan. Head coach Sean Payton claims that they want to get rookie running back RJ Harvey more involved, but he has historically been unreliable in his comments, and frankly, he is the one in charge of that, so his comments don’t really make sense. The Broncos have an elite offensive line, but the matchup with the Chargers is a bit of a tough one on the ground. On the surface, the Chargers look beatable, allowing 4.6 yards per carry so far this season. However, that number is largely boosted by the six rushes for 57 yards by Patrick Mahomes on scrambles in Week 1.
The overall outlook of this game is for a high volume passing attack from Denver with the ball spread around in a variety of ways. The Chargers lost elite edge rusher Khalil Mack to an elbow injury Monday night, which should give Nix plenty of time to go through his progressions. Likewise, Nix has the mobility to make some plays with his legs against this defense the same way Mahomes did. The Broncos will not completely abandon their running game, and I would expect the backfield to once again be used in the passing game after combining for a 21.5% target share through two games. However, the Broncos probably have the most diverse and explosive passing attack the Chargers have seen to date and an offensive line that will give Nix plenty of time to make plays. Ultimately, penalties and clock management will be a massive factor for Denver if they are going to pull off a big divisional road win this week.
How los angeles Will Try To Win ::
The Chargers appear to be a new team in 2025, as traditionally run-focused head coach Jim Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman have unleashed Justin Herbert and his weapons on a previously unforeseen level. The Chargers lead the league by a wide margin in pass rate over expectation (PROE) at 14.8% over expectation. The next closest team is the Chiefs at 7.7% over expectation. An interesting side note is that all four AFC West offenses rank in the top-6 of this category, pointing to the potential for this division to be exciting this season. The Chargers offensive approach does make sense, as they have a deep and talented receiving corps to go along with Herbert’s underrated arm talent. Their top three receivers are the dependable and efficient Ladd McConkey, explosive and physically gifted third year breakout Quentin Johnston, and the versatile and veteran Keenan Allen. Adding to that is the fact that they have two promising rookies in second round pick Tre Harris and training camp darling KeAndre Lambert-Smith who both should continue to blossom and provide explosive ability of their own. To put it simply, this approach is not just a blip on the radar.
The Chargers running game situation also plays a part in this new approach. Los Angeles lost their best offensive tackle, Rashawn Slater, for the season during training camp. They still have a decent offensive line and have held up well in pass protection, but rank 24th in adjusted line yards per carry through two weeks despite facing the Titans and Raiders – two fine, but not elite defensive fronts. This week, they face a Broncos defense that was among the league leaders in run defense in 2024 but was just torched by Jonathan Taylor in Week 2. The Colts have a superior offensive line and Taylor is one of the best pure runners in the NFL, however, making last week’s struggles for the Broncos likely a one-off situation. Considering how the Chargers approach has shifted this season and their struggles to get a push up front, we should see another pass happy game plan here. The Broncos still have an elite secondary, but the Chargers have enough versatile pieces to move the ball regardless. Denver plays a high rate of man coverage and blitzes on roughly 40% of their defensive snaps, meaning the Chargers will have to get the ball out of Herbert’s hands quickly and the focus will likely be on McConkey and Allen who are elite at gaining separation thanks to their terrific route running. All-Pro cornerback Patrick Surtain II is most likely to shadow Johnston due to his physical traits and the type of routes that he tends to run. Expect Herbert to be throwing early and often in this one, with Allen and McConkey the primary targets and a high likelihood of some screens to take advantage of the Broncos aggression.
Likeliest Game Flow ::
These are two well coached teams with very good defenses and who are very familiar with each other. While both offenses will lean pass heavy and have solid pieces, it is unlikely that either is truly breaking things open in this spot. The Broncos pass defense is good enough that they are unlikely to get torched by the Chargers receivers and the way that the Los Angeles passing game profiles is such that drives are likely to be prolonged and involve a lot of short to intermediate passing, with chunk plays likely to be hard to come by. The Chargers should be able to move the ball, but the explosive running plays that the Colts created to give Denver fits are unlikely to be on the table here for Los Angeles. Indianapolis had their most success through their running back and tight end, which are the relative weak points for the Chargers. On the other side, Bo Nix has not performed as well as many hoped so far this season and this matchup is far from a cake walk. Similar to the Chargers situation, we should expect the Broncos to move the ball here but explosive plays to be a bit harder to find. The result of all of this is the likelihood of this game playing out as a fun and competitive one from a football standpoint, but likely to be a bit of a grinder for game environment purposes. All of that said, a high pass rate from both offenses and aggression from the defenses provides a path to some big plays or turnovers, flipping the switch here.
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