Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- WR Joshua Palmer has yet to practice this week after suffering knee and ankle injuries in the team’s Week 6 loss to the Falcons.
- QB Bryce Young is looking at a multi-week absence with a high-ankle sprain, leaving veteran Andy Dalton to start against the Bills.
- The Bills have allowed the highest explosive run rate (19.0%) this season.
- This game is probably the most interesting one to me on a slate with little certainty and a good deal of fragility.
- These two teams rank first and second in average time of possession, something that likely shocks a lot of people when talking about the Panthers.
- There are multiple “what if” situations in this game that I think warrant legitimate consideration on this slate.
JM’S JOURNAL ::
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How buffalo Will Try To Win ::
As we’ve seen for the better part of the previous two seasons, the Bills are no longer looking to maximize scoring on every possession; instead, they are more content to manage their way to wins. The issue with that setup this season is that their defense has been ravaged by injuries and is now allowing the highest explosive run rate, something that has gotten them into trouble in their two losses against the Patriots and Falcons. Take away their Week 1 win against the then-healthy Ravens, and this team really hasn’t beaten anyone notable this season, with other wins against the Jets, Dolphins, and Saints. That said, the Panthers are no world-beaters, and we should expect the Bills to approach the game in a similar way. But what if? What if the Bills come out of their bye week after two consecutive losses and their approach to winning games is different? That, to me, is how the upside is unlocked from this game environment. It is far from guaranteed, but is an interesting way to approach a slate in which we really don’t have many spots for certainty.
We kind of know what we’re getting with James Cook at this point. 18-22 opportunities are highly likely to be his range of outcomes in most game scenarios. He’s just as unlikely to see more than that as he is to see fewer than that, giving us a high confidence in his median projections. His ceiling comes from explosives and touchdowns, two things that are less likely in this matchup, considering the Panthers have allowed a middling 10.1% explosive run rate, 4.1 yards per carry, and only four rushing scores this season. Ty Johnson remains the clear change of pace back, while fullback Reggie Gilliam has found his way into an elevated snap rate of late.
Joshua Palmer’s expected absence is an interesting development in that there are multiple ways the Bills can handle it. Tyrell Shavers stepped into his vacated role following his departure in Week 6, but the team is coming off its bye and has had two weeks to prepare for life without Palmer. The other side of that coin is that there aren’t any other receivers currently on the roster that profile similarly to Palmer, with Coleman the established X and Shakir, Elijah Moore, and Curtis Samuel all more slot-type, schemed usage players. Because of that, I expect Shavers to see 50-60% of the offensive snaps, with the potential for the team to utilize 12-personnel at elevated rates. Tight end Dalton Kincaid missed Week 6 but appears set to return against the Panthers. I expect all of Kincaid, Dawson Knox, and Jackson Hawes to see snap rates in the 50%+ range. The Panthers have played from zone at the fourth-highest rate this season (79.4%), theoretically setting up the slot players and tight ends well for volume. The problem is that there are six players that fall into those categories, so narrowing down where the aerial production is likeliest to come from is a fool’s errand.
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