Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- Super Josh doesn’t always come out to play, but, man, when he does… look out.
- That said, this does not appear to be a game where Super Josh will be needed.
- The Jets predictably led the league in rush rate over expectation in Week 1 against the Steelers (-17.8% PROE), with 39 combined carries versus just 22 pass attempts.
- Also predictably, Garrett Wilson saw nine targets on those 22 pass attempts, good for a tidy 40.9% target share.
- Somewhat unpredictably, Breece Hall saw 19 carries and four targets on 58% of the offensive snaps.
- The Bills ran 85 (!!!) offensive plays in Week 1, something they are unlikely to repeat for the remainder of the season.
- Likeliest scenario leaves this game with a muted game environment in which each team approaches their offense with a methodical approach, aiming to win a battle of attrition while minimizing mistakes on offense and forcing their opponent into sustained drives, where their respective defenses look to generate disruption.
How buffalo Will Try To Win ::
The current state of the Bills would prefer to win by forcing opponents to march the field while taking a more methodical approach to their own offense, with the ace in the hole being Super Josh. He typically isn’t asked to come out unless the team finds itself in dire need, which is exactly what we saw in Week 1 (and saw a few times last season). However, their normal game plan involves a more measured approach to their offense, while their defense forces their opponents to string together drives, during which they look to generate mistakes through their athleticism. That shouldn’t change against a Jets team already looking to take a methodical approach to their own offense, via elevated rush rates and sustained drives. To put the state of this roster into perspective, the Bills ran 85 offensive plays against the Ravens, Josh Allen attempted 46 passes, three players saw nine or more targets, and it took a career game from Keon Coleman to return a usable fantasy score (8-112-1). Furthermore, 10 different players received a target.
James Cook continued his role from 2024 into the first game of 2025, playing 56% of the offensive snaps while seeing 13 carries and five targets. For perspective, Cook saw 18 or more opportunities only four times in 2024, relying on a gaudy touchdown rate to prop up his fantasy value. Cook went over 20 DK points five times a season ago and was tournament viable just three times. All of that to say, we know what we’re getting with Cook. He requires extreme efficiency and elevated touchdown variance working in his favor to return GPP viability. Ty Johnson saw an increased snap rate due to game script in Week 1, with the breakdown of work behind Cook likely to be split between Johnson and Davis, depending on game environment. Neither carries weekly fantasy viability in the current state of this team.
Coleman’s 28.2 DK points in Week 1 were the first time since 2023 Stefon Diggs in which a Buffalo pass-catcher finished in the top three at their respective position on a given week. That’s borderline absurd. I’m sure the field is not overreacting to that performance, or calling it Coleman’s breakout game. It is highly unlikely that happen again this season based on how this offense typically operates. As we touched on above, 10 (!!!) different pass-catchers received a target in Week 1, and all skill position players to see an offensive snap, except Tyrell Shavers and fullback Reggie Gilliam, drew a target. This offense is just extremely spread out, by design. As such, I don’t see merit to chasing GPP upside on a team with such a small hit rate of individual production. Could I be wrong, and Coleman is now an alpha? Unlikely, but sure.
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