Bills (

26.5) at
Falcons (

23)

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Once again, we got two Monday night games (I’m writing up a LOT of Showdowns this year!), and the first one has the Bills traveling to Atlanta for a 49.5 total game with the visitors favored by 4.5. Buffalo has been a bit of an odd team to start – they’re 4-1, but they beat the Ravens by a single point, smashed three teams much weaker than they are, and then somehow lost at home to the Patriots. They’ve still scored 30+ points in four of their five games, while ranking third in points scored, while the Falcons rank near the bottom in scoring. Both teams have been middling on defense, which is somewhat damning for Buffalo, given how good the defense looked on paper coming into the season and the quality of their opponents, but all that said, I agree that Buffalo is the overall better team and should be favored. 

BUFFALO

In the run game, the Bills are finally giving James Cook material workloads with at least 16 opportunities in every game, and 22+ in three of five games. He’s finally being used like…well, not quite a full-on bell cow, but a real lead back instead of the consistent mid-teens touches we saw him get last season. Atlanta has been middling against the run so far (don’t pay attention to that “1st” on Draftkings, it’s silly). They’re allowing 4.6 yards per carry, but they’re also facing just 23.5 total rush attempts per game, one of the lowest in the league. Teams should be able to run against the Falcons, and I expect that the Bills will be able to find success here. Cook looks a bit more volatile than Bijan Robinson up near the high end of the price range, but I like him almost as much, especially with the $1k price discount. He’s one of my favorite options. Ty Johnson and Ray Davis aren’t seeing enough work to be anything more than tourney darts, but I expect Johnson will, at some point, have some relevant games this season – it’s unlikely to be this one. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, I hate writing up the Bills because it’s the same thing every damn week, and they show up on Showdowns a lot. This is an incredibly spread-out passing offense. Eight different pass catchers played material snaps last week (it was nine the week before, but they made Elijah Moore inactive last week). The primary wide receivers who are playing the most snaps are Keon Coleman and Khalil Shakir, and their route participation is decent at 82.7% and 82.1%, respectively, but that’s still only ranked in the mid-40s in the league. Coleman is my favorite option – he has a healthy 11.3 yard ADOT, giving him ceiling, and he’s leading the Bills pass catchers in snap share and route participation. Shakir is only $200 less, and while he’s almost identical to Coleman in DK points per game, his 4.2 yard aDOT makes finding ceiling a tougher path, and it’s not as if he’s cheap. I’ll likely aim to be overweight on Coleman and under on Shakir.

Palmer had 9 targets in Week 1, which looked promising, but then he’s only had 9 more in the rest of the season combined. Tyrell Shavers has 5 targets on the season for a grand total of 24 receiving yards. Samuel only has 4 targets in his four games and is nursing both neck and rib injuries (he did get in two limited practices this week, so I think it’s more likely than not that he plays). Fun times in this receiving corps. If Samuel misses, Elijah Moore comes back into the fold. Coleman and Shakir are the only two wide receivers with any real semblance of floor, but the rest are all cheap enough that 1-2 catches with a touchdown could easily put them in the optimal lineup.

At tight end, Dalton Kincaid is the leading Buffalo pass catcher this season and is fresh off a 108 yard performance last week. He leads the pass catchers in yardage and touchdowns (though both Shakir and Coleman have more targets), but he’s also only running routes on 63.6% of Allen dropbacks, which is rough. I like him for ceiling, but think I probably lean a little more towards Shakir and Coleman for more field time and target volume. Kincaid, like Samuel, is also questionable but got in limited practices, so with an extra day before his game, I think it’s pretty likely he plays. If he misses, more volume for the wideouts and more snaps for the other tight ends. Speaking of, the others are Dawson Knox and Jackson Hawes. Knox has fairly quickly gone from a viable fantasy play to an afterthought with 10 targets and 54 total receiving yards on the year. Yikes. He’s still on the Bills, and he’s only $1,600, and he’s playing a decent chunk of snaps, so he fits into the same bucket as the non-primary wide receivers. Hawes has 4 targets and needs a touchdown.

Buffalo passing summary

All of these guys are fairly risky – Coleman, Shakir, and Kincaid have floors, at least, but they’re also fairly expensive for those floors – everyone else is a risky tourney-only option. The way I’d play them is simply the opposite of ownership, because I think they’re all pretty similar. I’d go a bit overweight on the guys who are projecting for less ownership, and I’d stay away if any of them look like they’re going to be chalky. It’s a volatile situation, and we always want to play into volatility at low ownership and away from it at high ownership. 

ATLANTA

The Deuce

Strategy Ideas and Things To Consider for Monday’s 2-game Slate:

Overview::

It is important to understand the big picture of these teams both in terms of their inner workings and their perceptions entering this week::

• Bills – After a primetime let down in Week 5 where the Bills lost to the Patriots, they travel to Atlanta trying to get back on track. The Bills play the Panthers next week prior to facing off with the Chiefs in Week 8. Buffalo is still in control of their division and is fully healthy on the offensive side of the ball, while they will once again be without a couple of key defenders in LB Matt Milano and S Damar Hamlin. Buffalo continues to have a balanced to run-heavy approach when they can, as Josh Allen’s only two games this season with more than 28 pass attempts were their Week 1 comeback against the Ravens and last week’s loss to the Patriots. Atlanta’s defense is the #1 ranked DVOA defense in the NFL through five weeks and is coming off their bye week, while allowing the 5th lowest yards per play in the league. Atlanta is healthy and gets their top cornerback, AJ Terrell, back from injury this week.
• Falcons – The Falcons offense runs primarily through RB Bijan Robinson and WR Drake London on a weekly basis and that will be the case to an even greater extent this week as WR Darnell Mooney will miss this game. The Falcons power running game has been their trademark this season and when they have that aspect of their offense rolling they usually have great success. The Bills are the 32nd ranked run defense in the league by multiple metrics, but have only faced one strong running game this season which was the Ravens when Derrick Henry had by far his best game of the season. In the absence of Mooney, we should expect Kyle Pitts, who is coming off his best game of the season, to be the next most targeted player after Robinson and London. This also profiles as a game where RB Tyler Allgeier is likely to have double digit carries given the strength of the rushing matchup and Atlanta’s desire to give Bijan a large workload but keep it manageable.
• Bears – Washington blitzes at a top-5 rate and is far more susceptible to the pass than the run this season, while the Bears have arguably the worst running game in the league through five weeks. They are coming off their bye week, but there does not seem to be anything they can do from a personnel standpoint to greatly improve their rushing offense in the short-term and this week’s matchup certainly doesn’t look like a spot where it will magically show up. Bears QB Caleb Williams ranks 39th in PFF passing grade when under pressure, but 6th when he is kept clean. On paper, this looks like a spot where Washington could create some havoc as Dan Quinn’s aggressive blitzing could force Williams into mistakes. Rome Odunze remains the clear top receiving option for the Bears with DJ Moore still ranking second but failing to produce much to date. Moore could be due for a breakout coming out of the team’s bye, while rookie wide receiver Luther Burden III could also see an increased role if he is able to claim some time from veteran Olamide Zaccheaus. Those two, along with tight ends Cole Kmet and Colston Loveland, are the biggest question marks around this Bears team and the usage the team deploys here among those players has a wide range of outcomes that no one outside their organization will be able to definitively say until after the games.
• Commanders – Washington held strong without Jayden Daniels for a couple of weeks and can take a share of the NFC East lead with a win here. Daniels is back at full strength, but didn’t have to do much in his return last week against the Chargers. The backfield seems to be in the hands of Jacory Croskey-Merritt after his breakout Week 5 game and Chris Rodriguez Jr. is likely to miss this one, leaving Jeremy McNichols as the other running back likely to see meaningful touches. Chicago has the 28th ranked run defense DVOA and is the only team to allow Raiders RB Ashton Jeanty to go off so far this season, while also allowing 7.6 yards per carry to Javonte Williams in Week 3. Washington has the league’s #3 ranked rushing offense and should move the ball easily on the ground. They will be without WR Terry McLaurin and the status of WR Deebo Samuel Sr. will not be determined until gametime. Zach Ertz should be a primary target for Daniels this week after his dud in Week 5, while Chris Moore will operate in the primary perimeter role in place of McLaurin although he has been running a lot of routes and not seeing many targets. Youngsters Luke McCaffrey and Jaylin Lane are interesting options this week with talent and a good matchup, while they will either rotate snaps if Deebo plays or both be on the field a lot if Deebo misses this game. 

QB Thoughts::

• It is hard to predict exactly where things will land on a short slate like this, but pricing is relatively soft while Daniels and Allen are both among the top-5 QBs in the league, so it is safe to say that they will both be heavily owned and for good reason. The interesting thing here is that usually the problem with playing the top QB option on a slate is that who to stack them with is so obvious that a large portion of your lineup looks the same as so many other people. There is an interesting dynamic on this slate as the Commanders and Bills offenses have unpredictable passing game usage, so you can play either QB and stack them in ways that won’t necessarily be super common. Another interesting way to approach it is build a lineup around either QB, then swap to the other elite QB without changing the players around them. The idea here is that either Allen or Daniels could be the top scoring QB by a decent margin from rushing production, while the other has a solid game through the air and carries multiple pass catchers to optimal games.
• Caleb Williams is in an interesting spot as the Bears are so unlikely to be able to run the ball, yet the pressure he is likely to see makes efficiency a big question mark. Does high passing volume result in a big stat line or a bunch of mistakes or both? Similar to the other situations, 
• Michael Penix Jr. is the cheapest QB option on the slate and likely to be the lowest owned. Salary is relatively loose, but if Penix is able to post a 20-point game while no one else goes over 30 then he’s probably going to be the optimal option. We also know where/how to stack (roughly) him, which makes things easier, and he can benefit from Bijan Robinson adding so much as a receiver.

My guess on final ownership::

• Josh Allen and Jayden Daniels – 30%+
• Caleb Williams – 15% to 30%
• Michael Penix Jr. – 8% to 15%

RB Thoughts::

• Bijan Robinson is probably going to be on 70 to 80% of rosters, and with good reason. His role is so huge and salary is relatively loose, while the matchup is about as good as it gets on paper. Really the paths to him not being someone you have to have in your lineup are an injury, the Falcons offense completely implodes (possible), or Tyler Allgeier steals enough of the production/points that Bijan’s score is low enough to where you can get away with not having it. It is also relevant that one of the teams on the short slate (CHI) is so highly unlikely to have a strong RB score, which makes it really tough for Bijan to not be needed. He has scored 14+ DraftKings points in 15 of his last 16 games going back to last season, so even a “down” game by his standards is probably around 20 points, which would be hard to win without on a two game slate.
• James Cook III is coming off his worst game of the season against the Patriots, but had scored 20+ DraftKings points in the four games prior to that. In my opinion he is the easiest expensive player to fade as he will surely be over 50% owned and this is probably his toughest matchup to date.
• Jacory Croskey-Merritt should be the primary running back and looks the part coming off a breakout performance. It is hard not to include him in your lineup in this spot in one of the best possible matchups.
• D’Andre Swift’s usage has kept him viable this season as he has between 9.5 and 16 fantasy points in every game so far. Coming out of the bye I have some concern that he will share more of the backfield work due to his inefficiency so far, while I also think he may be asked to block more against Washington’s constant blitzing. 
• If you read the above bullets, you’ll understand my approach for this one will be Bijan and JCM in almost every lineup. I can see cases to include Cook or Swift if it is a three running back build, but it is hard to justify a roster spot for either over the two primary guys. However, Tyler Allgeier and Jeremy McNichols are interesting options on this short slate as both are capable runners in great matchups who could see a healthy amount of touches (both probably around 8 to 12). Also, on the short slate if either of Bijan or JCM were to suffer an injury then Allgeier or McNichols would become a near must-have. I do think both of these guys are also viable Flex options to be played with their backfield teammates (JCM with McNichols, or Bijan with Allgeier). 

WR Thoughts::

• Drake London is likely to be the most popular receiver on the slate, which is interesting from a couple of different angles. First, his team’s matchup is much better on the ground than through the air. Second, the other teams have spread out passing games which makes it so that all of those WRs are harder to expect good games from, but a lot of receivers have paths to scoring 12 to 20 points at a much lower salary than London.
• Rome Odunze is very likely to have a strong game, regardless of how the Bears do as a team. The volume should be there and he is very talented. Hard to leave him off a roster unless you are betting on multiple other Bears pass catchers outperforming expectations.
• DJ Moore would be the most obvious “other guy” from the Bears to supplant Odunze. I doubt I will make any rosters without at least one of them on it. Luther Burden III is also intriguing although my guess is if I use Burden it would be WITH one of Moore or Odunze, not as the only Bears pass catcher.
• The Bills receivers are always hard to predict and this week will be no different. Khalil Shakir is the only one I truly trust as far as what his role/usage will be. Keon Coleman seems like a good candidate for shadow coverage from AJ Terrell. This leaves Joshua Palmer or Curtis Samuel as intriguing options as “guys on the field a lot with Josh Allen”. 
• Washington’s situation all depends on the status of Deebo. If he plays, he is the guy. If he doesn’t, things get interesting. I probably won’t play Chris Moore either way, but Luke McCaffrey and Jaylin Lane are super interesting guys who I think could post big games if given a full-time role rather than splitting with each other.

TE Thoughts::

• If Deebo Samuel Sr. misses this game, then Zach Ertz is my favorite tight end on the slate. If not, I probably only play Ertz on Daniels rosters.
• Dalton Kincaid has had a nice season despite playing limited snaps. He does run a route on most passing plays, however, and has three touchdowns already this season. He is questionable for this game, but expected to play.
• Kyle Pitts Sr. is in line for a big role here and has at least 7.7 fantasy points on at least 5 targets in every game this season. No Mooney should mean even more usage, so it is really a game script thing. If Atlanta can play from ahead, Pitts probably only sees 4 to 6 targets. If they fall behind, he probably gets up in the 7 to 9 range. I will be building accordingly.
• The Bears tight ends are mostly a crapshoot in this one. They will likely split time and neither has been impressive to date. They could also have to block more against Washington. It is a leap of faith to play them, but the short slate is the one place it could pay off if one of them can get in the end zone.

Strategy and Game Theory::

• We touched on a lot of this already, but salary is pretty loose once again which means we have to be somewhat creative without being stupid. This slate does have a lot more dynamics and question marks around usage than we saw on the last two game slate, which makes it a little more fun as there are a lot more paths we can try to take that are not just off the wall for the sake of it. 
• If you take the highest salary player at every position, you are $5,200 over the cap (assuming Deebo plays). If you swap Allen to Penix (which makes sense with Bijan and London on the roster) and swap Cook to Burden or McNichols, you are under the cap. I’m not saying to play that roster, but just outlining how easy it is to get under the cap while using all of the expensive guys. Only two QBs, two RBs, and three WRs have salaries over $5,600 for this slate, which means the salaries mostly don’t even matter and we should just focus on the story our roster tells and finding a path to first. If Deebo is ruled out, all bets are off really as there would just be so much value and salary to go around and it will almost be like a preseason slate.

Positional Rankings::

(My favorite plays on the slate at each position when considering all elements, including salary/ownership)

RB::

1. Bijan Robinson
2. Jacory Croskey-Merritt
3. James Cook
4. D’Andre Swift

WR::

1. Rome Odunze
2. Drake London
3. DJ Moore
4. Khalil Shakir
5. Deebo Samuel Sr.
6. Keon Coleman
7. Luke McCaffrey

TE::

1. Dalton Kincaid 
2. Kyle Pitts Sr.
3. Zach Ertz (move to #1 if Deebo is inactive)
4. Cole Kmet

SHORT SLATE-ONLY OPTIONS::

• Here are a few cheaper options that I’ll be considering on this slate that can help you make a unique lineup, but you wouldn’t be playing on the Main Slate::
  • Tyler Allgeier
  • Colston Loveland
  • Luther Burden III
  • Jeremy McNichols
  • Josh Palmer // Curtis Samuel
  • Casey Washington
  • Jaylin Lane
  • Chris Moore

Good luck and see you in the lobby at 7:15 pm ET Monday!!

-Mike (MJohnson86)