Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- TE Dalton Kincaid finds himself back on the injury report this week, missing practice on Wednesday and Thursday with a knee injury.
- TE David Njoku (knee) has yet to practice this week for the Browns. It’s looking like another week of increased usage for rookie Harold Fannin, this time coming in a more difficult matchup.
- This game carries the second highest spread of the week, with the Bills currently favored by 10.5 points on the road.
- Harold Fannin and Jerry Jeudy are the only two pass-catchers for the Browns playing near every-down roles, and either could pop if things play out just right. Said another way, maybe, just maybe, they have value in large-field GPPs.
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How buffalo Will Try To Win ::
We know the drill with the Bills at this point. They are going to be methodical and run-focused unless, or until, their opponent forces them away from that stance. The Browns are highly unlikely to force them away from that stance. We also know that the Bills don’t have a single player who operates in a near every-down role. That means two things to us this week: (1) Super Josh is highly unlikely to be summoned, making him a much shakier GPP play, and (2) James Cook has legitimate paths to 25-30 opportunities with the team already in playoff mode, now playing for everything from the No.1 overall seed to the No. 7 seed in the AFC. Finally, the Bills are an offense that doesn’t highlight any one player. That is, unless Super Josh is unleashed.
Cook is averaging 25.4 opportunities per game in 10 wins this season, hitting 29.5 DK points, 36.6 DK points, and 22.7 DK points in their three wins by more than 14 points. The pure rushing matchup is far from perfect against a Browns team holding opposing backfields to 3.9 yards per carry and 21.8 DK points per game in 2025, including a league-average 4.8% explosive run rate allowed. There isn’t much else to talk about here outside of the fact that Cook has a clear path to elite volume in a less-than-ideal matchup. Ty Johnson remains on hand for clear passing duties, while Ray Davis could see additional run should the game get out of hand.
The combination of the matchup and the recent trends shown from the Bills makes it likely we see Jackson Hawes enter a more prominent role in the offense, should Kincaid miss with his knee injury. Hawes made it up to a 70% snap rate the last time Kincaid lost, and the Bills won handily, coming back in Week 13 against the Steelers. No wide receiver played more than 61% of the offensive snaps in that game, making it likely we see Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, Tyrell Shavers, Joshua Palmer, and either Brandin Cooks or Gabe Davis rotating through in what has become a package-based offense. Coleman returned to the team’s good graces in Week 13 after being a healthy inactive the previous two games, but played behind Shavers in the previous three games, interestingly enough. Dawson Knox would enter the primary tight end role and would likely see his snap rate jump to 70-80%, although he saw no more than four targets in the four games missed by Kincaid earlier this season. Again, not a ton to get overly excited about on paper here.
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