GAME OVERVIEW ::
BY HILOW >>
- Joe Burrow is reportedly set to miss the next 3-4 months with torn ligaments in his toe.
- J.J. McCarthy is reportedly set to miss the next 2-4 weeks with a high-ankle sprain.
- That leaves this game in the hands of Carson Wentz (Vikings) and Jake Browning (Bengals).
- The Bengals have a bottom-tier offensive line and backup quarterback, not a great spot to be in with a Brian Flores defense on the other side.
- RB Aaron Jones will also miss this contest, leaving Jordan Mason to handle the bulk of the expected workload out of the backfield.
- OT Christian Darrisaw downgraded from full practice Wednesday to DNP Thursday after missing the first two games. Something to keep an eye on Friday.
JM’S JOURNAL ::
Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.
HOW CINCINNATI WILL TRY TO WIN ::
The Bengals head to Minnesota with Browning set to start under center following the injury to Burrow. Browning has been the checkdown king when asked to start for the Bengals in previous years, and I expect more of the same moving forward. Browning started seven games for the Bengals during the back half of the 2023 season, during which time he carried a modest 6.4 average intended air yards and 7.9% deep throw rate, a 22.2% pressure-to-sack ratio, and an elevated 70.4% completion rate. While a player can surely grow in two years in the league, I largely expect those tendencies to remain consistent against the Vikings due to their defensive tendencies. I can’t think of a worse defensive scheme to see the first start in over a full season against than a Flores unit. The difference from 2023 to now is the players in the offense that are likeliest to see volume and production with Browning under center. Ja’Marr Chase has seen his usage and route tree change since the last time Browning started, with much more in-breaking routes and short-area targets. Those looks have largely come at the expense of running back Chase Brown this season. Finally, Browning had the lowest time to throw after taking over the offense in Week 2.
Brown ranks first in opportunity share, fifth in carries, and eighth in red-zone opportunities (eight, one goal line) but 53rd in fantasy points per opportunity. He also has zero explosive runs, and a 59.5% stuff rate. The role is robust and legit, and he hasn’t looked bad in the advanced metrics or on tape (0.19 missed tackles forced per attempt, 18.5 XFP/G), but the production has not fully materialized just yet. The matchup is poor on paper behind an offensive line that has created just 1.80 yards before contact per attempt against a defense holding opponents to 1.76 yards before contact per attempt. The Bengals have played zero snaps from 21-personnel this season, with Samaje Perine the preferred change-of-pace option through two games. Rookie Tahj Brooks has yet to see an offensive snap.
As mentioned above, Chase should remain the focal point of the offense through the air in an expanded route tree, but I would expect the bulk of his receptions to come within the first 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. We know what Chase can do with the ball in his hands, so that isn’t a death sentence for Week 3 against this Vikings defense. What is more damning is the state of a Zac Taylor offense that does little to get its play makers the ball in space, instead focusing on creating one-on-one situations. Again, Chase (and Tee Higgins, and the tight-end cadre) is more than capable of winning in that structure, but it does little to optimize his skill set. Drew Sample led the tight-end unit in snaps in a close Week 1 game but ceded additional work to Mike Gesicki in a back-and-forth Week 2 win. Noah Fant also saw his snap rate cut in half with the increased usage from Gesicki. With the zero 21-personnel utilization and 12-personnel usage highly dependent on game flow, Andre Iosivas should see his snap rate and route participation rate ebb and flow throughout the season (65% snap rate in Week 1 and 84% snap rate in Week 2).
HOW minnesota WILL TRY TO WIN ::
The Minnesota offense has not looked great in McCarthy’s first two professional starts, and while I expect him to eventually grow into a viable starter in this league, it would be silly to not think this offense could look much better in his absence. At the same time, Kevin O’Connell is a smart offensive mind and has to be aware of the defense the Bengals have played through two weeks, which should lend itself to an offensive game plan aimed at controlling the clock, time of possession, and field-position battles. That should result in increased usage for the backfield, which, for Week 3, will likely be a Mason workhorse situation with Jones out, and a pass game focused at moving the chains. Flores’ defense is built to generate disruption through defenders in the backfield, and the Vikings would prefer to force the Bengals to become one-dimensional. I wouldn’t expect the actual structure of the offense to change considering Wentz is an established veteran with a solid understanding of the game; rather, I would expect their approach to managing the game to be different.
O’Connell mentioned earlier this week that he views Mason as capable of handling a workhorse role, and I believe him. I expect Mason to be one of the primary cogs of the offense, with a chance of extreme volume if the game plays out the likeliest way. Mason has shown that he can handle workhorse usage from his time with the 49ers, and this franchise sought him out this offseason. Wentz has a low career checkdown rate but spiked to 8.3% in the 2022 season while with the Commanders, and O’Connell’s offense typically involves the backfield through the air, adding to his upside against the Bengals. Ty Chandler is on injured reserve, leaving the Vikings with only Zavier Scott on the active roster behind Mason, and I would expect them to elevate Xazavian Valladay and/or Cam Akers from the practice squad. None of the three is overly likely to eat into a potential workhorse role for Mason. The matchup on the ground is middling against a Bengals defense that has become more “prevent” than anything this year, yielding 1.97 yards before contact per attempt while holding the Browns and Jaguars to 3.7 yards per carry to start the season.
Something does not look right with T.J. Hockenson, I’m just going to come out and say it. There was a play designed to him over the middle of the field last week where he tried a triple deke on a linebacker. I have never seen him get stuck in the mud like that. He stayed in one spot on the field for four steps and the linebacker just stood there on his toes and broke in front of Hockenson to defend the pass. That might help to explain his low 17.1% target rate, 18.2% first-read target rate, and 14.3% drop rate through two games. I really don’t know what is going on with him. Justin Jefferson handily leads the team in all underlying receiving metrics, as should be expected with Jalen Nailor, Adam Thielen, and a broken Hockenson on the field with him in the absence of Jordan Addison. Nailor has been the only other pass catcher outside of Jefferson to operate in a near every-down role, but he holds a low 0.12 targets per route run (TPRR) and 1.18 yards per route run (YPRR). He’s just not going to command targets at a high rate. It certainly appears to be Jefferson or bust for the Vikings through the air in their current state.
LIKELIEST GAME FLOW ::
The structured madness of the Minnesota defense combines with the presence of two backup quarterbacks to yield a game environment the Vikings should control, but it isn’t likely to be pretty. I would expect the Vikings to anchor their attack with the ground game through Mason with an aim at controlling the clock and tempo. We have a good idea of what to expect from the Bengals, which is likely to be extremely reactive in nature but focused on the short areas of the field. That should expose Browning to increased pressure, which the Bengals are likely to counter with a ball-out-quick mentality. How the game likely plays out from there depends largely on what Taylor does to help his outmatched quarterback.
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