Game Overview ::
By mike johnson >>
- Cincinnati’s new quarterback Joe Flacco will make his first start against a team he has already beaten once this season.
- Green Bay had a rough stretch heading into their Week 5 bye week with a loss to the Browns and tie against the Cowboys.
- This matchup sets up for the Packers offense to operate in the exact manner which they prefer, methodically and with a heavy focus on the run.
- Cincinnati’s wide receivers will have more opportunities to make plays downfield this week than they have since losing Joe Burrow.
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How cincinnati Will Try To Win ::
This is a strange situation as we are relatively deep into the season to be seeing a quarterback thrown in the fire as a starter on a new team with less than a week of preparation. Joe Flacco is on the wrong side of 40 and lacks mobility, which may be a problem behind this porous Bengals offensive line. However, his command of the line of scrimmage and willingness to take shots to the Bengals elite wide receivers offer a glimmer of hope after three weeks of watching Jake Browning flounder through the first half of games, basically unable to move the ball. His only real success came at the end of games that were already decided. Flacco is a veteran with a ton of experience and is very cerebral, while the Bengals offense is one of the more straightforward schemes in the league. This makes it so his acclimation period should be quick and we can expect a reasonable level of success given his weapons. Given the circumstances, things could be worse.
The irony here is that the Bengals as a 14-point road underdog, but their best method of trying to win this game may actually be from taking some aggressive shots early in the game. The approach for most big underdogs is to shorten the game and limit possessions, hoping turnovers and variance work in their favor to give them a chance late. However, slow and methodical plays right into Green Bay’s hands and the Bengals lack of a running game (31st in rushing offense DVOA and 32nd in adjusted line yards per carry) and lack of reps in short area passing make it difficult to envision them putting together a bunch of sustained drives and marching down the field systematically. Given Flacco’s strengths at throwing the ball down the field and the elite playmakers at his disposal, the Bengals best chance in this game is letting him air it out early and hoping to get out ahead and play from a position of strength. The last time we saw this Packers defense they were being torched by George Pickens down the field and Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are certainly capable of winning those situations as well. The Packers pass rush, led by Micah Parsons, is a concern here. However, one of the biggest issues since losing Joe Burrow has been losing his command at the line of scrimmage to alter protections and recognize defenses. Burrow’s ability in these areas masked a lot of issues for Cincinnati’s offensive line. Flacco is not Burrow, but he should be much better at this than Browning was. Green Bay does not blitz at a high rate and when they do Flacco should recognize it well. Expect this passing game to at least have a chance to develop a rhythm after the aggressive Vikings, Broncos, and Lions defenses put them on their heels with Browning under center.
The assignment here is clear for Flacco. Get the ball to your best players while avoiding sacks and turnovers. For as poor as the Bengals defense has been, they have shown the ability to force opponents to march the field and limited explosive plays when the offense doesn’t put them in difficult situations. The running game isn’t going to fix itself against Green Bay’s defense which is giving up only 3.6 yards per carry, so this one is going to depend on Higgins and Chase. Flacco faced this Packers defense once this year, but he didn’t have two weapons like that, and he has a much different defense supporting him this time. Shots will be taken early and the Bengals will adjust to the game script from there.
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