Game Overview ::
By Hilow >>
- WR Tee Higgins (concussion) got in a limited session on Wednesday, although I would still be shocked if he played this week after two concussions in two calendar weeks.
- TE Noah Fant was sidelined on Wednesday with an ankle injury, while TE Drew Sample was limited with a neck injury. Something to monitor.
- Rookie QB Quinn Ewers will start under center for the Dolphins after Tua Tagovailoa was benched.
- The chances of this game environment completely taking off are rather slim, considering the Dolphins will be starting a seventh-round rookie quarterback, meaning the bulk of my exposure from this game will likely be of the one-off or mini-correlation variety.
JM’S JOURNAL ::
Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.
How Cincinnati Will Try To Win ::
The pressers out of Cincinnati this week have been difficult to watch, in all honesty. Ja’Marr Chase said something to the effect of, “What we’re doing now isn’t working,” when asked if he would make any changes in the coming offseason after another down year. Quarterback Joe Burrow said something to the effect of, “I need to make this fun again,” when asked about his focus during the final three games of the season. Players are unhappy, fans are unhappy, damn, I’m unhappy. This team has so much potential, and it seems like the one change that could catapult them into serious contenders is the one that is least likely to happen this offseason: moving on from Zac Taylor. I have been hyper-critical of a few situations and teams in recent years – the Cardinals, Drew Petzing, and Kyler Murray, Kevin O’Connell and J.J. McCarthy, Tua Tagovailoa on the other side of this game, and Taylor and these Bengals all come to mind. If I were in charge in Cincinnati, I would fire Taylor and build this team up from the inside-out, moving Trey Hendrickson to kickstart that endeavor with heavy emphasis on the offensive line. But here we are, left with another season of “what could have been” for the Bengals. Reports surfaced today (literally, can’t make this stuff up) that Taylor was handed a “secret extension” after the 2023 season, which secured his services through the 2027 season. Yay, us. How will the Bengals try to win? The same way they have tried to win for the previous five seasons, with a vanilla offense that aims to generate one-on-one situations for their primary skill position players, an unimaginative run game behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league, and a need to outscore every opponent they face because their defense is historically bad. The one bright spot in a sea of darkness on that side of the football has been second-year cornerback DJ Turner.
Since Taylor’s “game plans” consist of doing the same thing every week, we have a pretty good idea of what the backfield will look like against the Dolphins. Chase Brown is going to play 60-65% of the offensive snaps and see 12-15 carries; his pass game utilization will be dependent on the game environment and pressure, and Samaje Perine will operate as the change of pace, clear passing down, and two-minute back. Those two will be running behind an offensive line generating only 1.87 yards before contact per attempt, which has yielded just 4.1 yards per carry as a team, including just 3.6 yards per carry over their previous three games. The Dolphins face the fourth highest rush rate over expectation, but it would utterly shock me to see the Bengals leave Week 16 with a negative PROE after doing so just four times all season. Finally, the Bengals average the third fewest rush attempts per game at 21.1.
Tee Higgins returned to a limited session on Wednesday after suffering his second concussion in two calendar weeks in Week 14. I find it highly unlikely that he plays this week, leaving the Bengals with Andre Iosivas, Mitchell Tinsley, Charlie Jones, and a four-headed tight end monster as their expected primary pass-catchers. That completely changes if Higgins somehow finds his way to the active game-day roster, but I simply don’t think that will be the case. Why risk a player you recently handed a massive contract to in a lost season, after suffering two concussions in a two-week span? Makes zero sense to me, but we’ve seen the Bengals do dumber stuff, so who knows? No Bengals tight end has played more than 60% of the team’s offensive snaps since Week 7, and the only way I see that changing is if both Drew Sample and Noah Fant miss this week. Fant missed practice on Wednesday, while Sample was limited. As we said ahead of last week’s contest, Chase carries legitimate 15+ target upside any time Higgins misses a contest, and he proceeded to notch a solid 16-target game against the Ravens. That would be the case this week, should Higgins remain sidelined.
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