Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- Al Golden takes over for the departing Lou Anarumo. He coached the Fighting Irish last season.
- Zac Taylor’s offense continues to be predicated on getting his players in one-on-one situations as opposed to generating space for them. On film, this looks like a reliance on his skill position players instead of maximizing their upside.
- The Bengals should be forced to continue a “we have to score more points than our opponent” offensive mentality based on their defensive coordinator hire and preseason results.
- Jim Schwartz’s Cleveland defense is one of the most aggressive units in the league, one that has achieved great success against Taylor’s more straight-up offense.
- The field isn’t likely to realize just how good Schwartz has been against the Bengals throughout his career with the Browns.
How cincinnati Will Try To Win ::
We kind of know what we’re getting with the Cincinnati offense, so we’ll spend some additional time on what to expect from the Bengals’ defense. Al Golden spent the previous four seasons with the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, where he served as their defensive coordinator. His collegiate defenses were known for their malleability, playing varied rates of man versus zone and typically utilizing 4-3 and 4-2-5 nickel fronts. Last season, Golden’s defense was near the top of the collegiate ranks in man coverage, but that doesn’t necessarily mean we see more man from the Bengals this season. We saw a ton of man coverage out of his unit in the preseason, and the results were not promising. He particularly got destroyed on the ground by the Eagles and Commanders, two teams that utilized elevated rates of man/gap concepts in the preseason. This linebacker unit also looks poised to struggle. Logan Wilson leads the league in interceptions amongst linebackers since 2020, but has struggled against the run and in coverage on bigger bodies like tight ends, while Demetrius Knight is a second-round rookie who looked overmatched in preseason. I expect the base to run out of 4-2-5 nickel with an emphasis on man coverage and aggression, two things that can effectively make weekly performance stick to the extremes. In other words, I think we see the Cincinnati defense return outlier performances to each extreme throughout the season. We’ll probably see some games where they look really good – where everything falls into place – and we’ll probably see games where they look absolutely atrocious.
Zac Taylor’s offense is not flashy. There are not a lot of bells and whistles. It is simplified, direct, and plays more face-up. We see a lot of stuff designed to get his top playmakers in one-on-one situations as opposed to other teams around the league that aim to create space for their top playmakers. I guess he’s lucky he has Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Chase Brown, eh? We’re going to see blowup games out of this team because of their pass-first mentality and elite talent, but I would argue Taylor is far from maximizing the talent he has on the field. The offense runs from heavy rates of shotgun, effectively making a system that relies on the pass game to generate lighter boxes to run. The departure of Zack Moss leaves third-year running back Chase Brown as the clear lead dog in this backfield. He is likely to cede modest work to Samaje Perine for package snaps, while rookie sixth-rounder Tahj Brooks is on hand as a handcuff. The Browns struggled against the run a season ago but generated the highest pressure rate in the league at 39.3%. View this matchup as a middling spot on the ground, with the caveat that he’ll be running behind one of the league’s worst offensive lines.
Joe Burrow is one of the league’s top quarterbacks. His football IQ is off the charts, his arm strength is borderline elite, his pocket presence is amongst the best in the league, and he brings a level of mobility that is just enough to extend plays behind an up-and-down offensive line. Ja’Marr Chase is a top-two-or-three wide receiver in the league. Tee Higgins is an elite X-type receiver. Yea, this team has the weapons. That said, they could find themselves under constant pressure against Jim Schwartz’s defense, one that is built to maximize pressure in the backfield. That is particularly egregious considering the state of this offensive line, which returns three starters in addition to two new guards. I expect the Bengals to counter with a ball-out-quick mentality, most likely directed towards Chase all over the formation. Expect Chase to be the primary motion man to diagnose coverages, which, knowing Schwartz’s tendencies, is likely to involve elevated rates of man coverage (fourth-ranked 39.6% in 2024). That also included the second-most single-high alignment a season ago at 65.5%. At least to start the season, and after their preseason showing, I expect Taylor and the Bengals to continue in a “we have to score more points than our opponent” mentality, meaning they should keep the aggression on throughout.
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