Game Overview ::
By Hilow >>
- This game probably carries the widest range of outcomes on the slate. As we’ve discussed previously, the most profitable stance to take in games with wide ranges of outcomes is to be overweight when ownership is low and underweight when ownership is high. We’ll have to see how things shake out here the rest of the week.
- QB Lamar Jackson returned to the practice field for the first time in three weeks on Wednesday, albeit in a limited capacity. I would expect him to return in Week 8. Furthermore, FB Patrick Ricard and OT Ronnie Stanley both returned to full sessions after missing extended time. Ricard has yet to play this season. Furthermore, CBs Chidobie Awuzie and Marlon Humphrey, S Kyle Hamilton, and ILB Roquan Smith appear headed for returns to action.
- Jackson led the league in total touchdowns with 10 through three games before being injured.
- Derrick Henry sees the worlds align in this spot – Ricard due back, largest rushing mismatch of any game all season, and the return of Jackson to give the defense another component to account for.
- Rome Odunze is in a good spot on paper to return to his pre-bye production levels.
- Similarly, Zay Flowers is in a prime spot for ceiling.
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How chicago Will Try To Win ::
The Bears have been living and dying with the turnover. They now lead the league with 2.7 takeaways per game after a four-game stretch in which they forced a ridiculous 15 turnovers (all wins). They are also tied for seventh in giveaways per game at only 0.8. They forced only one turnover in their two losses this season against the Vikings and Lions. That is important because their defense is allowing 350.0 yards of total offense (25th) and 25.8 points (also 25th) per game this season. They have also allowed the third-highest explosive play rate against, while their opponent in Week 8 has generated explosives at the highest rate in the league. To me, their approach to this game comes down to their ability to generate turnovers, as we should expect the Ravens to move the football well in this spot. In other words, we could see the Bears forced into more uncomfortable and one-dimensional territory if the Ravens are able to force their hands.
We heard head coach Ben Johnson speak to potential changes in the structure of their offense coming out of their Week 5 bye. While most thought that would relate to the involvement of their rookies, primarily Luther Burden, Colston Loveland, and Kyle Monangai, the real change came via situational play-calling tendencies, structure of plays, and the ability to shift the focus away from the relative one-dimensionality of the offense during their first four games. The biggest beneficiary of that shift was clearly running back D’Andre Swift, who didn’t see a bump in role as much as simply benefiting from better overall structure. The expected return of Roquan Smith should have the Ravens playing better against the run, but this is still a team that has allowed 4.5 yards per carry behind 1.49 yards allowed before contact per attempt. That said, Swift’s paths to 100 yards on the ground remain rather thin, considering he has hit 20 opportunities just twice all season. Monangai appears to have a stranglehold on change-of-pace duties and saw a career-high 16 opportunities a week ago.
The Ravens have played the third-highest rate of man coverage this season (39.4%). The Bears have run only 35 plays against man coverage so far, but Rome Odunze has been the primary option on those plays, amassing a 35.3% target rate, 63.9% air yards share, 0.34 TPRR, solid 3.34 YPRR, and elite 0.85 XFP/RR against that coverage shell. It should come as no surprise that Odunze’s best game of the season came against the man-heavy Lions, relatively underperforming against the zone-heavy Cowboys, Raiders, Commanders, and Saints following that breakout performance. This is a really nice spot for him on paper, and I don’t think the field will get here this week. Could be wrong, obviously, and I haven’t dared to take a gander (pique, peak, peek? Those in IC will get the reference) at ownership this early in the week, but that’s my initial read based on the state of the slate and recent industry biases. DJ Moore and, potentially, Loveland are the two likely to join Odunze in near every-down roles, with Loveland dependent on the status of Cole Kmet. Kmet failed to finish the team’s Week 7 win and did not practice on Wednesday with a back injury. Moore also did not practice on Wednesday with a hip injury, but I would expect him to play after he was a ‘DNP’ last Wednesday with hip and groin issues. In other words, it doesn’t appear to be a new issue for Moore.
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