GAME OVERVIEW ::
BY HILOW >>
- 49ers QB Brock Purdy is reportedly out for 3-5 weeks with a toe issue.
- 49ers placed TE George Kittle on IR. He will miss the next four games, at minimum.
- 49ers WR Jauan Jennings did not practice Wednesday with a shoulder injury sustained in the team’s Week 1 win over the Seahawks.
- The 49ers also shook things up at kicker, releasing Jake Moody and signing Eddy Pineiro.
- For those keeping track at home, that could leave Ricky Pearsall and Christian McCaffrey as the only remaining healthy starters on this offense, likely to be joined by third-year TE Jake Tonges, journeyman Marquez Valdes-Scantling, veteran Kendrick Bourne, and perennial offseason hype man Skyy Moore as a supporting cast.
- Predictably, the Saints led the league in pace of play in Week 1.
- The 49ers ran 76 offensive plays in Week 1 against a Seahawks opponent that ranked second in pace of play at 26.4 seconds per play. Their opponent in Week 2, the Saints, ranked first in pace of play at a blazing 22.8 seconds per play. Yea, there should be play volume here.
- Chris Olave (13), Juwan Johnson (11), and Rashid Shaheed (nine) combined to account for 71.7% of the team’s targets in Week 1. Now that is concentration, y’all.
HOW san francisco WILL TRY TO WIN ::
The 49ers are going to be without Purdy, Kittle, and wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk for Week 2, and they could also be without Jennings, the latter of whom suffered a shoulder injury in Week 1 after missing most of camp and preseason with a calf injury/contract dispute. I think it’s fair to expect the vast majority of volume to be concentrated on McCaffrey and Pearsall, with the obvious caveat being that said volume will be delivered/run by backup quarterback Mac Jones. Considering the state of this roster, the renewed vigor of their defense with the return of defensive coordinator Robert Saleh, and their opponent, I think it’s fair to also expect a more muted offensive game plan likely aimed at long, sustained drives to milk the clock, with an emphasis on what McCaffrey brings to the table. That isn’t to say it’s all doom and gloom here, just that we should expect the 49ers to take a more methodical approach to their overall game plan considering their situation.
That situation should continue to lead to borderline extreme volume and usage for McCaffrey after the veteran back saw 22 carries and 10 targets against the Seahawks. This game environment sets up similarly to the one they played in a week ago, meaning McCaffrey has a clear path to 25-30 opportunities (or more) again. And it wouldn’t take much to improve on his “good, not great” fantasy returns from Week 1. For all the things the Saints did well in Week 1, they were still extremely vulnerable on the ground. They ceded a robust 2.36 yards before contact per attempt (fifth worst) to the Cardinals, while the 49ers blocked to an eye-opening 2.18 yards before contact against a stingy Seahawks team (eighth). This is a solid spot on paper for McCaffrey. Newcomer Brian Robinson is likely to serve as the preferred change-of-pace option after seeing a 24% snap rate following his trade to San Francisco prior to Week 1. Isaac Guerendo was active but failed to see an offensive snap while contributing to special teams.
The 49ers were a perfectly balanced offense in Week 1 (as all things should be), attempting 35 passes to 36 rush attempts with a -3.9% pass rate over expectation (PROE) (28th). I would expect that to tilt slightly in the favor of increased rushing if the 49ers are able to control the game environment, but there really isn’t too much additional room for that to swing too far considering the uptick in play volume we expect here. I would confidently pencil in Jones for 32 pass attempts as a floor, meaning that volume has to go somewhere.
I expect McCaffrey to once again be heavily involved through the air after leading the team with 10 targets in Week 1, and I expect Pearsall to be the primary wide receiver. I would not be shocked if the two combined to see 20+ targets in this spot (you’re starting to catch my drift, I think, but more on this in the DFS+ section). The remainder of the pass-game volume is anyone’s guess, likely to be dispersed amongst the remaining pass catchers. It is notable that the team elevated Russell Gage from the practice squad for Week 1 and he went on to rank third on the team, amongst wide receivers, in snap rate at 37%. I expect another standard elevation for Gage.
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